Pattern changing fast - first winter storm?

Meteorological fall ends on November 30th and this is one of the warmest ones on record for much of Kansas. Is anybody surprised? Everything about 2026 has been warm and feels record setting, so this may not be that surprising.

Storm Team 12 is working on a winter forecast that we will reveal right after Thanksgiving. There's plenty to take into consideration with the very strong El Nino, but by most metrics, it is already reached its peak and will start weakening by mid-late winter. 

December:

March:

We are definitely seeing the Arctic Oscillation (AO) going negative in late November and early December. See the trend below. That by itself does NOT guarantee that cold weather is going to overwhelm us, but it does give some credibility to temperatures trending much lower in the coming weeks and out into December. Here are two different examples of the AO as we get into late November and early December. 

Notice how both the blue and green lines trend lower on the right side of the graph. That's suggesting a negative AO, which has a tendency to allow for larger scale cold air to drop south across the country. It doesn't always help predict how long the cold spells will last but is a piece of the forecasting puzzle.

Next big system prior to Thanksgiving:

This is one that will be pretty potent as it crosses our immediate area. It should be able to latch on to some colder air from the northern Rockies and parts of Canada, so it's possible it could have a pretty big wintry component even if the track doesn't bring snow to Kansas.

Shortly after that, I'd be on the lookout for early December to have another large system coming through the Southwest and into the Plains. The storm tracks this winter are going to favor the central and southern Plains, which is typical in El Nino winters. I'd give this one a decent shot at bringing snow to Kansas. It's very possible (right on schedule) that our first snow for much of the Plains may arrive in the first 10 days of December. 

Notice (on the map below) how early December looks quite warm across Canada! That will probably be a common theme this winter too, but the shades of "blue" across the southern tier of the United States clearly resemble where the precipitation will be helping to keep things quite chilly.

Thanks for reading!