Get ready for more active days - preview of November

One storm system after another - that might be a common occurrence as we continue deeper into fall and winter. This latest round of active weather is a little earlier than I thought it might be, but I haven't heard too many complaints (unless you're a farmer still trying to plant wheat). At any rate, more low pressure systems are favored across the western US, and I believe this will continue right into November.

Let's take a look at what's developing soon:

Models seem to be in agreement that another system will be approaching the central Plains around the 24th/25th - with it, more rain and thunder (not likely snow).

What follows could be another system for Halloween:

Note the blue in the Southwest - that represents low pressure and if it ejects into the Plains (track is often key), it could easily result in more active weather right at the end of the month. Given the temperatures that are forecast during that time, I would not expect it to be snow either. The northern branch of the jet stream remains north of Kansas at this particular time, so a big shot of cold, Canadian air would be highly unlikely.

If we look at the 7 day rainfall (center on October 29th), you'll see the central and southern US is favored to have more rain. Exact amounts aren't known, but it is something to watch as we approach the timeframe

And over the next 30 days (October 22 - November 22), this map reflects what could be a very energetic southern branch of the jet stream (a result of the El Nino)

Temperatures:

I've had so many tell me they are concerned about a sprint into winter, but I still don't see that happening. There are some cool or chilly spells mixed in, but a long stretch of colder than average weather just doesn't show up in the models just yet.

The month of November doesn't look warm, but it also doesn't look bitterly cold either. Things may just average out for the month, which would mean more days with highs in the 50s and 60s than anything else. 

While it does get a little into the weeds of meteorology, one of the things that we'll come back to again over the next few months is the Arctic Oscillation. When it goes negative, the chances of having more cold air slip south from Canada and the Arctic increases. When it remains positive, there are much better odds of it being "milder". There is a slight drop off (going negative) toward the end of October. That doesn't mean it will instantly turn cold, but it might indicate some chillier weather to start November. Maybe that's when we will have our first hard freeze statewide.

Thanks for reading!

October outlook with El Niño in the headlines

We've heard so much about the El Niño reaching historic magnitudes, and it may still intensify a bit more between now and December. Depending on what you read (and believe), some of the headlines could be a bit alarming. The strength of this El Niño is similar to what we had in 2015/16 but appears to be stronger than the one we had in the late 90s (1997-98). 

Here are the water temperatures compared to average (much of that water south of Hawaii is about 85°F):

If we look back at previous winter seasons (I looked at the period of November - February), what we find is that most of them tend to be average or wetter than average. The numbers listed on the maps represent above or below moisture (compared to the average). See the examples below:

2015/16: 

1997/98:

1982/83: 

This is just some initial research and some food for thought as we get closer. There's still so much to watch and interpret so that we might have a better winter prediction, but it is a very common question this time of year "what's the winter going to be like". In classic El Niño winters, the southern branch of the jet stream is much more productive and active. 

October thoughts:

Temperatures: 

I'd expect the month overall to be near or warmer than average, with cool weather in control for the eastern 1/2 of the country. If the upper-level winds are coming out of the northwest, this temperature setup makes total sense.

The first half of the month looks pretty quiet (DRY). I don't think we are seeing the full impact of El Niño on the pattern yet - that's to come later in the year. And if you are wondering about early frost this year, I'm not convinced that will happen either. I'd expect either an average first fall frost (usually mid-late October) or even later this year. 

Persistent riding (high pressure) may setup across the Rockies for a few weeks, so our upper-level winds may be more west to northwest, which tends to limit rainfall for the Plains. I'm not saying we won't have any rain at all, but it does look drier than average for the first few weeks of the month.

It looks like late October turns wetter - something the models have been indicating now for quite some time. This active and wetter period is likely to continue into November, so that may be the earliest onset of the El Niño impact for the Plains. 

Thanks for reading! Safe to say, things will get much more interesting in the coming months, and drought will likely have a significant setback in the weeks/months to come.

Frustration maxing out in early September

Everyone seems to be upset (including myself, I guess) about this latest stretch of weather. This is so reminiscent of 2011 when we had over 50 - 100° days and it didn't seem like it would ever end. High pressure would wobble around maybe 60 miles over the course of two weeks. It finally did come to an end on September 4th when highs fell into the 70s and 80s. That September didn't have much rain, but just watching summer exit that year was beyond welcome. 

This summer (June 1 - August 31) ranks about where 2012 did, but the summer of 2011 was still MUCH hotter statewide. 

Right here at the start of September and we are already watching another record: most 100° days in the month. Much of the state averages roughly 1-3 days of 100° temperatures, but this year will be an exception. 

Rainfall - what rainfall, right? Since the beginning of June, areas of the state that have been wetter are across the northern sections, while central and southern Kansas remain in pretty rough shape. (compared to average):

And now the 60 day (compared to average) shows many more areas of red - representing just how dry July and August turned out:

Now on to September: this month still looks warmer than average! It's getting a kickstart with the very hot weather here at the beginning of the month, and even though it will cool down by mid-September, the 30-day period overall is warm.

Rainfall - don't expect huge amounts this month (September generally is not a wet month) with roughly 1.50-3" on average (lower amounts in western Kansas). Best chances for moisture come in the 2nd full week of the month as the riding breaks down across the Plains. It's entirely possible this will be tied to a cold front, so it may turn out to be "scattered" rather than widespread, but odds are better for moisture mid-month.

Late September looks drier to me, with possible weak high pressure returning to the area. 

Thanks for reading! One extreme follows another, and with such a strong El Nino underway, there is reason to remain hopeful for change.

Amid the heatwave, there's this...

It sure seems like all of the 100s that Kansas might have missed out on last summer are showing up this month. Much of the state is already at their average number of 100 days, and we're still looking at another heat wave in week 3 of the month (Aug. 16-22). However, this looks like it will be the last big stand of the "heat dome", so let's get to some better news.

When I wrote up the August outlook, I said September looked encouraging for rainfall, and that still appears to be the case. With the increasing El Niño, which I'll show in just a second, we are likely to start seeing the southern branch of the jet stream getting more and more active as we get into fall. I would assume this will come too late for many fall crops.

Latest drought map (August 13th):

Much of the state had tremendous rainfall in June, making it a top 10 wettest for several parts of the state. July started drying out and as expected, August has gone hot and dry statewide. But as most of us know, one extreme can follow another, and while I'm not saying we'll have flooding in 30 days, a change is coming.

Here's the 30 day rainfall outlook - starting now - Sep. 12th:

Model #1:

Model #2:

It looks like in the final week of August the upper high pressure is collapsing fairly quickly as several systems begin to track straight in from the West. Each passing one will likely weaken the "high" even more, so I think we will see things flip fairly quickly here as August comes to a close and we get into September. It may make for an interesting fall harvest season if things turn wet. I do not think September will be exceptionally cool, but it should be much closer to average compared to the blow-torch hot August that we've had so far. 

Side note - September is not traditionally a very wet month for Kansas. Average rainfall drops by about an inch for most of the state.

El Nino is impressive:

Just incredible what's happening along the equator in the Pacific. Notice the area of white, south of Hawaii that stretches for thousands of miles. Right now, the area monitored for El Nino is 1.8°C above average and it continues to warm. What's also of interest is the exceptionally cold water that is west of the dateline, southwest of Hawaii. That will also play a role in developing weather patterns as we go into the winter season. 

Past El Nino influence on fall weather patterns generally trend toward wetter setups overall. Most recently, 2015-16 was a strong El Nino episode and much of the season & into winter was wet. See the examples below, starting with October, followed by November and December. You will see that October was drier for central and eastern Kansas.

October 2015:

November 2015:

December 2015:

Thanks for reading!

August heat remains - but interesting signals ahead

Just one month remaining in 2026 meteorological summer and although we've had some hot days, we are not setting any all-time records, and this is not on pace for a hottest summer by any means. Some of those summer records belong to 2011/2012, 1989, and the 1930s. A quick glance at the map below shows how July wrapped up - with much of the state at least "slightly above" on temperatures (largely driven by the late month temperature surge) 

July rainfall wasn't much to get excited about, with almost all areas (with the exception of northeast Kansas) well below average. See how central and south central Kansas ended the month about 3-3.50" below. It would've been nice to have some of that June rain carryover. Driest July for Wichita and Dodge City since 2011 & 2012, respectively. 

August preview:

Right here at the outset, I will say August isn't promising for any cool weather. If it's going to show up (the cool weather that is), it's not going to happen until we hit late August. Persistent high pressure remaining very close to Kansas will likely dominate the first half of the month and perhaps longer. Up until recently, we've been able to avoid the upper level high for much of the summer, but it may be camped out nearby for the next several weeks.

This also suggests to me that August is a dry month - below average rainfall is likely for the 31 day period. What rain we do get in August could be weighted toward the end of the month, but even that may turn out to be lackluster. 

However - While most of you will fall in the camp of "believe it when I see it", the strong El Niño may send us into a much wetter setup soon. Most of the data suggests rain arriving in early September, and the months to follow will be turning wetter than average. That may complicate fall harvest and fall planting in a big way. It shouldn't be a total surprise because fall and winter tend to go wetter when we have an El Niño influence, and this one coming on is a strong one (maybe even stronger than the 97-98 one that set records). We will be highlighting some of these cases in future posts, but El Niño impacts are usually an energized southern branch of the jet stream, which would foster better rains over the southern half of the US. That is now showing in many of our maps. The image below is September projected rain, followed by September, October, and November (grouped into one map).

September rain:

Sep/Oct/Nov rain:

More to come on El Nino!

Signs of some rain; cooler weather

Reaching the halfway point of July and we are still on track to avoid any major heatwaves in the coming weeks. That is fitting when moving into a strong El Niño - and some of the other background indicators have suggested Kansas will remain out of the intense summer heat dome. I still expect we'll have at least a few 100° days - we all know August can be hot - but spending an extended period right under the big summer "high" doesn't look likely.

Take a look at what is shaping up for the 3rd week of July:

Cooler temperatures (compared to average - mainly 80°s) should be expected from the Rockies eastward. The upper-level winds (jet stream) should be coming out of the northwest, which will help drive the changes. The main heat dome is not going to be that strong, but it will be camped out near the 4 Corners region, which will keep the monsoon influence going in the desert, and some active weather will trickle off the Rockies. 

This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late June and early July when parts of the state were influenced by nightly storms. Most models are suggesting some .3-.75" amounts could become reality, which isn't anything spectacular, but you have to welcome it in the hottest part of summer.

Last week of July:

If we look at the last week of July into early August, be prepared for your typical July heat with highs remaining in the 90s, but there's no support for a long stretch of 100s. The main "heat dome" should reside out across Arizona and New Mexico, but it once again doesn't look particularly strong.

There has been some question about rainfall moving into August and nearly everything I've looked at is showing drier than average conditions will likely persist for much of the state. That doesn't mean we won't get any rain, but the episodes may be few and far between and amounts won't be anything blockbuster. Here's one of the maps, showing roughly .5-1" below for Kansas.

The latest El Nino indicator is showing water temperatures south of Hawaii at +1.3°C above average and still increasing. It will continue to be a big topic for fall and the upcoming winter, so we'll be discussing it more in the weeks ahead. 

Could we escape the worst of summer's heat in July?

Welcome to July! And already, 2026 is half over (I'm always amazed at how fast time flies). We just wrapped up a wet June with many locations experiencing a top 20 wettest June on record, but some went even further than that by breaking into top 10. Here's a map showing June rainfall numbers:

Several areas across central and southern Kansas had over 200% of normal moisture. Naturally, the drought has improved drastically compared to 60 days ago. Incoming El Nino is almost always helpful in generating rainfall and this time proves no different. 

July is starting off with record heat in the eastern United States as the infamous "heat dome" sets up across the Tennessee and Kentucky. Of course, the impacts are far reaching with the New England states even gearing up for highs near 100. A few areas may have all-time high temperatures before it's over, and it could be the last of the major heat they'll see in the East for the remainder of this summer. 

July outlook - I don't see this month being extremely hot for Kansas. Average highs remain in the low 90s throughout the month, and I can't imagine we'll have any prolonged periods of 100° weather. The upper level high will be uncomfortably close to Kansas, but latest trends suggest it may never get that strong. At times where it tries to strengthen, it may get weakened by some upper level feature coming over the northern Rockies. 

If that's the case, we should expect near or slightly cooler than average temperatures when the month ends. Here's the temperature map:

Rainfall expectations shouldn't be too disappointing, but we do know that July won't be as wet as June. After all, back-to-back record months with rainfall are quite unusual. Average July rain tends to drop because high pressure is more common this time of year. However, if the high pressure remains weaker, that should allow for some more active weather to arrive off the Rockies. We'll see. Early monsoon may help provide some welcome rainfall off to the southwest of Kansas too - not entirely sure if we'll see any of that getting up into our immediate area. 

Here's a rundown of what average July rainfall looks like for various parts of the state:

• Goodland: 3.08"
• Wichita: 3.98"
• Dodge City: 3.08"
• Garden City: 3.43"
• Salina: 3.92"
• Hutch: 3.33"
• Hays: 3.95"

Water temperatures out in the Pacific continue to warm as the El Nino intensifies. This will likely rank as one of the stronger ones on record before it's over. Note that even warmer water is gathering just off the central/south American coastline. Some of it will continue moving westward. The average water temperature in the El Nino zone (that's monitored) is 1.2° above average. This is going to be a factor through fall and winter, so it's a topic we'll come back to many times.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - stay cool!

More rain coming - no heat wave yet

We continue to see some good news regarding ongoing drought in Kansas as we approach late June and even start to look out into mid-July. 

First up, the infamous "heat dome" will remain over northern Mexico right up to the end of June and it should be very weak. Given that, we will continue to see repeated rounds of storms off the high plains of Colorado and right down into Kansas. This is classic summertime - mainly overnight and early morning storms. 

This particular setup should yield more rain for the Plains and the Corn Belt, which might be key timing for some of the fall crop production and yields. Take a look at the predicted rain amounts and see that western Kansas might be on the lower end of the amounts but should still receive some rainfall throughout the last week of June.

And as we've talked about before, the more rain, the better the chances are at avoiding a prolonged heat wave. If you're "dry", you tend to "fry". 

 

Going out further into July, it will be our turn for some hotter weather. Signs are pointing to more 90s and drier days, but I don't expect a major heat wave or a long stretch of no rain.

Most models hint at the upper high pressure, or heat dome, moving back to near Amarillo and resulting in some hotter temperatures and less rainfall as we approach mid-July. This could help to crank up the monsoon over the Desert Southwest and across the Rockies. The upper level winds would keep the higher rain potential off to our west. 

I don't think a prolonged heat wave is in our future for July. There are too many other factors suggesting whatever heat we do get into may very well be brief - broken down by a cold front and some rain. Great news for farmers and those who aren't fans of summer heat and humidity.