Fall frost on hold - signs of a summer setup

First snows of the season at Loveland, CO - courtesy CBS Denver

October is a month where we start talking about frost or a hard freeze (sometimes, even snow). But if we don't see frost for another few weeks, is that out of line? Northwest Kansas averages a first fall frost/freeze within the first half of the month, while Dodge City typically sees it happen sometime in the middle of the month. Wichita averages a fall frost/freeze around Halloween. Last year, our first sub-freezing low temperature didn't happen until the end of October around much of the state. A cold front is coming Thursday, but no threat of any frost heading into the weekend.

There should, should be some rain south of I-70 and east of Dodge City into Thursday evening. It may not be very much, but some .25-.50" amounts look possible, especially farther south and closer to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. Severe storms are unlikely. The beginning of the Royals game Thursday evening could be wet with showers in the Kansas City area. 

The weather pattern will shift again over the weekend and we are going to see some summerlike weather return to Kansas by Sunday. Highs could get close to 90 in northwest Kansas. While record highs aren't necessarily likely, we will be running about 15 degrees warmer than normal. And unfortunately, with the jet stream so far north for much of next week, we don't have any chances for rain until (at the earliest) October 16th. So far, this has been a very dry fall. Some are asking "where is El Nino?" The fact of the matter is, that influence on the weather could still be weeks away. We can't jump to any conclusions about our winter weather based on what we are seeing right at this moment.

Historic rainfall numbers - our pattern shifting slightly

Courtesy Jim Berry - football field in South Carolina underwater

Historic rainfall has been falling over the Carolinas throughout the last 4 days. Charleston, South Carolina had over a third of it's yearly rainfall in less than 48 hours. What you have going on is a stalled storm over Georgia with a steady conveyor belt of moisture moving from the ocean right into South Carolina. This belt of rainfall has been relentless and with the tropical connection, it doesn't take long for flooding to happen. Conditions will start to improve Tuesday as the storm system finally gets out to sea.  Keep in mind, the major flooding is completely separate form Joaquin which continues to accelerate out to sea, passing near Bermuda. As it moves over cooler water, additional weakening is likely.

Setup for heavy rain in the southeast. Steady streams of moisture continue to move onshore

Rainfall amounts through October 4th

We have a couple storm systems of our own to watch, but it won't be anything like the rainfall they've had back east. There is a system over Las Vegas this morning, but it now looks like it will slip southeast to the US/Mexico border and not bring much (if any) rainfall to Kansas. We do have a front coming in on Thursday that should help develop scattered showers and storms. Rainfall amounts look like they will be .25" or less, but with a chance to have thunderstorms, we can always hope for a little more.

Temperatures will cool off later in the week with highs back around 70 by Friday. 

Rainfall needed and an October preview

sunrise Thursday morning - courtesy Terry White (over Hutch)

The month of September was a mainly dry month for much of Kansas. Where we need rain, the deficits continue to grow. There are some areas of central and western Kansas that have fallen 5 to 10 inches below normal for the year. I've highlighted rainfall stats for Russell, Wichita, and Dodge City. There is quite a variation in all of the locations too.

October is a month that can see some radical changes in the weather pattern, temperatures, precipitation, and even the type of precipitation. Our average highs will drop into the 60s during the middle of the month, and go even lower by Halloween. The days continue to grow shorter, and by the end of the month, we will be down about 70 minutes of daylight.

Most of us will experience frost in the next 30 days. On average, the northwest sees frost within the first 10-15 days of the month, while it's much later for south central and southeast Kansas. I don't see any sign of frost in the near future yet, but we know it's coming. Cold fronts are getting stronger and as soon as we see the first sign of frost, we will be sure to post it here on the blog. Have a great day!