Late week storm - where's our confidence now?

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on what will be an active end to our week... AND colder too. We are overdue to see some January weather as lately, it has felt like spring.

Front arrives Thursday - no big change expected, but we should have less wind and more clouds. Temperatures however, will still be in the 50s for much of the state.

Friday storm - We are still at low confidence on how this storm will play out, but by Thursday, we should have a pretty good idea of what's going to take place.

Rain & snow chances - what goes where?

It looks like west of a Dodge City to Hays line, moisture on Friday will be in the form of snow. Heavy snow (greater than 5/6" appears very unlikely), but chances increase nonetheless from mid-late morning. The rain isn't going to be all that heavy in central or eastern Kansas, but drizzle or a few hours of some light showers will develop heading into Friday afternoon. The BIG time rainfall will go well east of here across Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.

Severe weather develops southeast of Kansas! 

You will likely hear about this in national news updates, but potential strong storms and even some tornadoes are targeting areas in Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and southeast Missouri. So this will be quite a potent batch of weather coming through Friday - Saturday.

Snow Saturday morning:

The back edge of the system will be wrapping up early Saturday, so weekend travel plans around the state shouldn't be all that treacherous. We might have some snowpacked areas Saturday morning for awhile, but once the sun comes out, our roads should improve quickly.

Arctic air lining up for next week:
The week won't start out bitterly cold, but it sure pushes in by the middle of the week. Right now, we have the front coming in late Tuesday, so watch for a huge drop in temperatures by Wednesday on. This will be something that sticks around for awhile. Get ready for January to setup camp in the Plains.

We hope to be able to put out a snowfall forecast maybe later today (Wednesday) so watch for that on the air for 5, 6, 9, and 10. Have a great day.

January is knocking with cold, rain, and snow chances

The warmer weather may have some of you already thinking about spring, but we are days from a reality check. And it may come with some rain and snow.

There won't be any record high temperatures on Tuesday or Wednesday (those are mostly around 70°) and nobody is likely to be that warm. But just look at this map for the first week of January 2020. 

Much of the country is WAY above normal. The northern Plains are some of the warmest spots in the first week of this new year. I do expect the map to change significantly in the next 10 days as bitter cold pushes back into the northern US and begins advancing south.

Be on the lookout for extreme fire danger on Wednesday. The wind gusts will easily exceed 30 mph and temperatures continue to be warm. Even though we had some nice rainfall about a week and a half ago, fuels above the ground will easily ignite. 

When will it all change:

A cold front pushes in Thursday, which starts the downward trend. It won't be THAT big of a change initially, as we are still forecasting 50s Thursday afternoon. And look where the first batch of moisture goes Thursday evening - to the east.

A developing storm is forecast to move into the Plains Friday/Saturday. At this time, this will likely be a LOW impact system for Kansas, with only light snow chances and most of the heavier rain missing to the east.

There will still likely be some changes to the forecast track and impact, but models are coming into alignment that the biggest deal for Kansas will be the MUCH colder air. Severe storms are going to be a possibility from Texas up through Arkansas by Friday evening.

Potential Rain Amounts: Big moisture goes east with 2-4" rains likely in Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Illinois, etc. Much of Kansas will see light snow (that melts down to under a .25") and rainfall in south central Kansas will likely be .25" or less too.

Arctic air WATCH:

We've been sounding this alarm for quite some time - alerting you to a bigger change that looks to setup for the second half of January. We will see how much of the cold air pushes into Kansas, but the next several weeks look much chillier for our area.

Snowfall checkup & first meteor shower of the year

Hope your 2020 is off to a great start. We are just a few weeks away from reaching the halfway mark of meteorological winter. That may seem a bit confusing considering the official start to winter was only two weeks ago, but the months of December, January, and February are the main months for snow and cold.

Look where we stand with respect to snowfall since October 1st:

Much of the state continues with lower than normal snowfall and it won't likely change soon. 

What's happening right now is more of a westerly storm track that delivers fronts and fast moving low pressure systems that DON'T have much moisture. So as they track into our area, we get clouds and wind. Best rain chances will stay off to the south and east of Kansas. This will happen again later next week when a cold front comes through on Thursday.

Temperatures won't be changing much over the next 7 or 8 days. Some of the chilliest weather may come through around Tuesday, but it's NOT Arctic air for Kansas AND when you get down to it, it will still be above normal.

First meteor shower of 2020: Quadrantids

This should be a good one to check out late Friday night and early Saturday morning. The moon will be setting around midnight, so right as we go into prime viewing there won't be any extra light to wash away meteors. It is suggested that looking toward the northeast and about half way up off the horizon should give one a chance at seeing more meteors than looking in any other direction.

Have a great weekend!