How warm can we get next week & for how long

We are busy working on our winter weather forecast and the 30 minute special that will air next Saturday (November 21st). Our winter forecast will also be detailed here on the blog too as soon as we finalize it.

The focus for next week is on a HUGE warming pattern that will setup across the Plains and deliver not just warmth, but potential record warmth. Lately, the warmth has overpowered just about everything else in our forecast (except for the wind of course). There may be several days where it doesn't feel like mid-November.

Here's what the setup looks like:

Record highs are not a slam dunk at this point, but we should have a chance by Wednesday/Thursday and maybe even Friday. A slight shift in the wind could keep us out of record territory, but for now, there's a strong chance we might make history.

Are things about to change?

Sometimes the first signs of bigger changes begin to show in the Arctic Oscillation. When it goes negative, there's a strong tendency to get some much colder air dropping south out of Canada. You can see where things are headed around Thanksgiving. At this time, I'm thinking we will be turning "cooler" during the holiday week, but not bitterly cold. We may end up with highs in the 50s on Thanksgiving Day. 

Early Thanksgiving thoughts:

Beyond that, we may be slipping into colder weather heading into early December. Let's see if future model runs continue to show this negative trend in the AO.

Have a great weekend.

Another system coming later this week

Rainfall amounts ending at 7a.m. Tuesday:

One system moves away from us today (Tuesday) and another one is on the horizon for the end of the week. This is a system coming straight from California and will likely bring some more rain to the Plains states by Friday. 

Unfortunately, it's a disorganized system, so unless something dramatically changes in the data, its probably NOT going to be a big rain maker (and it will be MUCH too warm for snow). When we say "disorganized", that means the energy associated with the system is spread over thousands of miles and tends to make it weaker overall. 

Our first week of November has been quite mild and overall, that's probably not going to change much in the next few weeks. We will have some chilly mornings, but afternoon highs should stay at or above normal leading right up to Thanksgiving week.

It is going to flip soon, but I'm thinking it may not come until right AFTER Thanksgiving. Just look at the outlook for Thanksgiving week - suggesting much of the Plains will have a temperature average of 4-7° (likely yielding highs in the 60s)

Atlantic hurricane season record:

The National Hurricane Center named another storm yesterday evening. Substropical storm "Theta" is about 1000 miles east of the Azores. You can see in the map below it's in the middle of nowhere, but it does set the record for most named storms in the Atlantic season. It beat 2005 (when there were 28 named storms that year - including Katrina), and we still have a few weeks to go in the overall season. I wouldn't be surprised if we have yet another system coming up through the Caribbean. It will get the name "Iota" if it does develop. Stay tuned. What a crazy year.

A stormy trend ahead

So many areas in Kansas are still in dire need of rain and we have reason to hope that Mother Nature may help us out soon. On the air, we have been showing a potential storm arriving early next week, which would fit in with our November outlook I posted last week.

The setup:

This storm should organize across the western US over the weekend, resulting in STRONG wind gusts for the Plains Saturday and Sunday. Just look at some of the gusts Saturday and again Sunday.

 

 

I am expecting this western storm to break into two different parts, with the first part racing north into the northern Plains by Sunday evening. This leaves Kansas without any good rain chance through much of the weekend. However, where we start to run into questions (and maybe getting our hopes up for some rain) is the second piece that kicks out across the area on Monday and Tuesday. 

 

That's the part of the storm that may help to increase rain chances (and perhaps snow for western Kansas) at the beginning of next week. 

 

Confidence is still low on how this storm will play out, so I hesitate to put up any potential rainfall amounts yet, but there's a chance areas that were missed in the last go around may get a shot at some rain early in the week. It hasn't been looking all that promising for northwest Kansas to get some soaking moisture, but it is still early and so much can change yet.

Even if we don't get much rain, we WILL be much cooler early next week throughout the Plains and the Rockies.

If the storm doesn't do what we need it to do, there could be other chances looming.

I'm looking at another system that could swing through the Plains at the end of next week. It's strength and potential is unknown, but it's part of a pattern that looks very busy leading up to Thanksgiving week. You can see the brighter colors off the west coast. That indicates very strong upper level winds (the jet stream) and with it pointing into the southwest US, we may see more storm systems approaching that MIGHT help to bring some rain. Let's see how this plays out, but we do expect things to be more interesting in the weeks ahead.