Rain Rain - this could be a good sign

It's been the primary focus of recent updates here on the blog and for good reason. We need rain. There were some nice showers and storms last Saturday that covered a decent amount of Kansas, but near as I can tell from most of you, it wasn't quite enough. 

Here's what's going on for Thursday. If you look to the north, you can see a nice drop in temperatures as close as northern Nebraska by mid afternoon. This front will set off the majority of our storms heading into the evening hours. I don't think these storms will be able to survive the entire night, so after midnight, expect what's out there to dry up. Summer storms can be notorious for producing more wind than hail or rain, so keep that in mind in the coming days.

Friday:

Storms will once again be possible over many different areas. The front will still be in the area, so showers and storms will start late morning and continue into the afternoon. Much of what shows up on radar should continue to shift south throughout the day. There will be pockets of heavy rain, but threats of damaging winds and large hail look minimal.

This weekend:

Saturday:

Rain chance looks a bit better than the Sunday setup at this time. Least likely areas of the state to get rain will be in the far east. Central and western Kansas could deal with slow moving storms that gradually track south, and another .50" is a reasonable expectation. The clouds and rain should keep our highs in the 80s. Sunday (shown below) will still have some rain around too, but it's likely a morning chance and then drier weather takes over for the afternoon.

 

Potential amounts:

It's looking like most of the state will get something. Probably not enough to wipe out the growing drought conditions, but maybe enough to keep it in check. Much of the area will be close to an inch by the end of the weekend, but as is usually the case, some will get more and others less. 

 

There may be more active weather later next week!

A system tracking through Wyoming may help to set off a new round of rain and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday night (western Kansas) and then spreading east for Thursday. Timing could be adjusted as we get closer, but it may be more welcome moisture soon. AND... it will be followed by a BIG drop in temperatures as we go later in August. Just look at the period Aug. 19-26. How does 10-15 degrees below normal sound? Let's see how this sets up, but it is very likely with the pattern that we are heading into.

Rainfall forecast update

The waiting game continues and it is quite frustrating when we keep getting teased by these little showers that produce less than .25". Kansas (among many other areas) continue to be in the wrong spot for rain at this time and although chances are in the forecast, there's nothing out there that looks to break the ongoing dry spell. The chances are much better for cooler weather heading into mid-August, but rain continues to be elusive. 

Saturday:

Chances will begin late afternoon and continue into the evening/overnight. Given that we don't have a strong front coming through, there isn't much focus for storms to fire off of. Whatever develops will continue to move east-northeast, and rainfall totals will probably come in under .50" (and even less the farther west you go). A few storms may kick out some gusty winds - and help to cool down the late afternoon temperatures. 

Monday:

A cold front will try to push into northern Kansas during the evening. However, as it does so, it will be fading, so the heat isn't going to budge. There should be some storms developing north of I-70 near the weak front, and some of the rain will drift south before falling apart. I'm just not overly impressed with our potential of rain - so keep your expectations low. 

Wednesday:

This front may have the best chance of coming through Kansas. It's a setup that may increase the storm potential for a good part of the Plains, but there are some ingredients missing to give us hope of a soaking event. You'll continue to see us advertise a mid-week storm chance and that's what we are banking on, but if I had to forecast rain amounts for this particular timeframe, it wouldn't be much more than some .50" totals. 

Here's a summary of the rainfall forecast (through Sunday, August 15): Nice to see something on it, but we will need a bunch more. 

Have a great day. Cooler weather should be back in the Plains very soon. I'm looking at Aug. 15/16 for some really comfortable weather to push back this way. 

Very dry in Kansas, but hopeful signs are showing

Here's a quick snapshot of rainfall numbers compared to normal since June 1st (beginning of meteorological summer). Point being is that we have some dry and REALLY dry areas in Kansas right now - fall crops are suffering after last weeks heat. And there's more hot weather to get through down the stretch, especially as we head into the weekend. 

Here's a map that backs up some of the numbers shown above. 

The extreme dry weather covers not just Kansas, but most areas north of us too. Look at Minnesota and northern Iowa. We know summer storms can be so isolated, and this map backs that up 100%. If you've had a few inches of rain in the last couple of weeks, you are in the minority for sure.

This weeks pattern isn't really all that exciting for moisture:

The upper high retreated westward over the weekend and we get benefiting from some much more comfortable weather. However, we are waiting on the upper level high to reemerge out in New Mexico by the weekend, which will heat things up for the Plains. Highs return to upper 90s and near 100 very soon. Humidity will slowly creep up in the coming days, but shouldn't be unbearable anytime soon.

Second week of August looks more promising for rain:

Our computer models rarely agree (which is a topic for another time), but we do see some agreement among them suggesting next week will have a few more rain chances mixed in for the Plains. Just take a look at the period August 9-15:

I don't think it will be blockbuster rainfall totals, but even if we could get some 1/2 to 1 inch amounts, it would be a nice band aid for now. 

And although next week looks pretty warm from the Plains to the east coast, if you look at that pocket of cooler air up in Montana and North Dakota, that should be coming our way in mid-August. 

Don't forget:

The Perseid meteor shower is ramping up. It will peak next week, but you can start your viewing now if you like. I'll post more about this later, but if you are getting out the next several nights, keep your eye out for one of the best meteor showers of the year.