A hurricane for Kansans to watch - coming soon

The hurricane season peaks around September 10th and we are almost halfway through the list of names for the Atlantic basin. Next up is Ida and Julian, which should be coming very soon. It may not look like much, but the area of thunderstorms near Venezuela could very well develop into a tropical system soon. 

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a storm in 5 days, but there's a strong likelihood that given the warm water and the weak winds aloft that it will grow into a hurricane soon. It may not become a hurricane until the weekend, but conditions seem favorable for it to grow. Just look where the storm will be this weekend.

Leftover tropical systems rarely get to Kansas. In fact, the last one to do so was Hermine back in 2010. It came on shore as a tropical storm near Corpus Christi and then weakened as it moved up into southeast Kansas on September 10th. 

Our computer models will be all over the place for awhile, but there is some potential of the storm pushing farther north. At this time, it is a low chance for it to reach Kansas, but certainly possible. What we need is a strong high pressure over the southeastern US to help push the system into the central Plains. I'm not sure we will get that setup, but there's plenty of time for us to watch the setup and see what may be developing. And there are several more storms to watch out in the Atlantic. Each yellow "x" indicates a potential storm on the horizon. The tropics are very busy right now, but that may change in 3 weeks when the overall pattern changes again. 

Next Rain - Heat Relief:

It still looks like a cold front is coming to Kansas on Sunday. That will be our next hope of some rain and heat relief. Until then, anything that pops up over Kansas will be REALLY isolated.

Have a great day.

More smoke floating around + rain on temporary hold

Wildfires continue across the west and smoke has once again reentered our Kansas air. However, with this latest go around, most of it appears to be mid and upper levels. Two fires in particular, the Dixie and Caldor fires are contributing some of the most smoke. The Dixie fire is over 600,000 acres, but it sounds like some of it has been contained. 

Smoke in the mid and upper levels will give us the dramatic sunrise and sunset photos that we have been showing on the air all summer. However, air quality down near the ground won't be as bad thanks to a steady south wind bringing in air from better regions. The image below shows upper level smoke. White arrows show which way the wind is blowing FROM at roughly 18k feet.

More hazy skies are expected throughout Kansas come Thursday as the upper level winds come from the southwest. However, the plume may not be as thick for the end of the week, but it may still be noticeable in the early morning and late evening.

Late week storms:

I'm saddened to tell you that rain for the end of this week is not looking good at all. Models continue to show a cold front coming in, but almost all of the rain will travel north of Kansas. It's great news for Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Kansas is too far south to get the brunt of the moisture.

Thursday evening: Chances are mainly in the northwest. They will be scattered storms at best, but not very widespread in their coverage. Expect rain amounts less than .25" - these storms are not likely to stall for any length of time, so even where we do get storms, it doesn't look like very much rain.

Storms Friday? - not likely. Even though a front is coming through, chances remain slim. Midlevel temperatures may be too warm and much of the upper level energy will be too far north. A couple of late night storms are possible, but definitely not likely.

The final heat wave of summer? We know it is coming and as we coast into late August, I would expect this to be it. But models have struggled SO much lately finding the cool air. Sunday - Tuesday look HOT! We may see some 100s again, especially in western Kansas. All of the computers shift the big heat dome back to the west quickly, so it will cool down in the second half of next week. 

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days: Great news for the northern Plains as drought easing moisture is coming. In Kansas, the best we can hope for now are some scattered storm chances mid-late next week with another cold front on the way. 

La Nina may continue to fall & winter + 30 day rain outlook

It's been awhile since I've posted anything related to El Nino or La Nina. And it's becoming apparent where we are heading as fall approaches and then questions start to swirl about what kind of winter we may have. 

Here's what the water temperatures are doing now:

As a refresher, La Nina refers to water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific that are colder than normal, while El Nino is the opposite. The average temperature has to be .5° Celsius either above or below for a period of at least 3 months in order to qualify. The table below shows the last 10 years of El Nino (shown in red) with La Nina (in blue)

It was about a year ago, we started slipping into a La Nina and it held on through winter and weakened a bit in spring. Now, as fall approaches it's looking more apparent that another La Nina is developing. Do you remember what happened last fall in a La Nina? Here's a reminder:

October was cooler than normal and we had an early season snow late in the month! Most of the month was DRY.

 

November flipped around and was quite warm - but we did get more moisture:

This fall could be very different. There is not a "one size fits all" approach when it comes to La Nina autumn for Kansas. However, consider this trend for a moment:

• January - WARM
• February - Record COLD
• March - Warm
• April - Warm
• May - Cold
• June - Normal
• July - Below Normal
• August - (so far) - Normal

More times than not, our average monthly temperature has been below normal. Keep that in mind as the fall months draw near. We can't say yet if we will have an early frost or not, but my gut feeling is that it will be right on time (or maybe a week or two early). Be sure to check back.

We are still optimistic about rain in the week ahead!

Some rain is forecast for Kansas Monday/Tuesday, and then the setup late in the week looks more premising for more areas of the state. 

 

There's a strong cold front that should be on the way, and if all goes right, it would be a widespread setup for moisture. I know the situation is still pretty rough around the state - we need the precip. I'll leave you with this map - the 30 day rainfall outlook for the Plains. It takes us to Sep. 13 and suggests that we may have a decent chance of getting above normal moisture during the period. Cross your fingers: