Next winter system & the final meteor shower of 2019

We just watched one storm system slide by to the north of Kansas and drag in some much chillier weather. There is Arctic air nearby, but most of it continues to hold up just northeast of Kansas. So we are actually about to start a warming trend that will send us into the 50s by midweek.

Next Storm:

There isn't much to look at with respect to precipitation until the weekend gets here. You will likely start to hear about snow chances and the possibility of a storm impacting the Plains by the weekend on different social media platforms. There's too much that can change and WILL change before the storm actually forms and moves through our area, so any prediction on snowfall amounts would be speculation this far out. One concern is that this storm comes right over the Rockies, which may limit the amount of precipitation that falls in Kansas. 

That's not necessarily a track favorable for heavier snows. So initially in looking at the data, I wouldn't expect heavy amounts, but we will have to figure out what path this system may take.

The track of these low pressure systems are usually key. So let's continue to watch the next few days of model runs to understand exactly where this thing will go for Sunday.

Last meteor shower in 2019:

It is the Geminid meteor shower and it will peak this Friday night. Good news is that I don't think the clouds will be thick enough to block our entire view. HOWEVER... the moon will still be fairly bright and it rises around 6:45 p.m. That will tend to wash out some of the smaller meteors. It's too bad because the Geminid shower is one of the better ones during the course of the year. You don't have to look any particular direction... just look straight up and try your best to get away from city lights.

 Wednesday we will begin the discussion of White Christmas. Are you hoping for one this year? 

Big switch coming - get ready for the cold!

Our mild December weather is about to end! We've been highlighting this on our newscasts and sounding the alarm about Arctic air showing up again next week. This will be the second blast of it moving south. (the first round came in the beginning of November)

There is another storm system that will go from West coast to East coast over the next week. Although it won't be bringing any big snow to Kansas, it will be the culprit for dragging MUCH colder weather back into the Plains. 

You can see where this storm will be on Saturday:

Sunday, the storm will be passing through the northern Rockies:
This particular model has Kansas fairly cloudy, but I expect we will have a little more sunshine than what is shown here. However, any snow chance will be staying north of us.

Monday, the system should be tracking through the Great Lakes and headed on east:

How cold are we talking?

Tuesday should be the coldest day of the week when many of us will have single digit wind chills and highs most likely won't be getting out of the 30s. It's typical to have something like this in December, and if you absolutely aren't a fan of the cold weather, you'll be happy to know it moves on by midweek. 

White Christmas?

We haven't drawn any conclusions yet, but next week, we will start the discussion about the chances for it this year. I will leave you with this though - temperatures into Christmas week look COLDER than normal. We may see several days with highs in the 30s and 40s around the holiday itself, but we don't know yet about snow. So one of the essential ingredients should be there - cold air. But will the moisture be there? Stay tuned and have a great weekend.

Where's the snow & Arctic air moving closer

Is it unusual in early December to not have any snow on the ground in Kansas? We just had a big snow storm roll through the area during our Thanksgiving week, but nearly all of it has melted. And December is one of the snowiest months (on average) for most of the Plains.

Here's a look at the current snow cover around the US (you can click on any image)
2019:

The current snow cover map shows that most areas west and north of Kansas are covered in some degree of snow. Last weeks storm proved to be a pretty significant event with more than a foot of snow in some places. However, the warmth of this week is eating away at it pretty quickly.

2018:

Look back to last year and you'll see many of the same areas were covered in snow. The northern half of Kansas had a few inches.

2017:

This map is striking. About the only places WITH snow were the mountains. So what we are seeing this year isn't out of the ordinary, and not surprising with the warm weather we are having lately.

We are still on Arctic air watch for next week.

It's going to be a close encounter and a BIG switch from what we are having this week. Signs point toward Kansas being on the edge of the coldest air (which may actually end up from KC on north and east), but any slight shift could bring it back farther west. So we will continue to study the models and see what will happen. Even if we do end up seeing the Arctic air slide farther west, there isn't much moisture to work with, so chances for snow are slim to none. And most of next week (if not all of the week) looks basically rain/snow free.

But just look at some of these high temperature forecasts for next week. Normal is about 45°, so this is going to put us back below average soon. It's not likely to last for the entire week, but get ready for a chillier week.