January is knocking with cold, rain, and snow chances

The warmer weather may have some of you already thinking about spring, but we are days from a reality check. And it may come with some rain and snow.

There won't be any record high temperatures on Tuesday or Wednesday (those are mostly around 70°) and nobody is likely to be that warm. But just look at this map for the first week of January 2020. 

Much of the country is WAY above normal. The northern Plains are some of the warmest spots in the first week of this new year. I do expect the map to change significantly in the next 10 days as bitter cold pushes back into the northern US and begins advancing south.

Be on the lookout for extreme fire danger on Wednesday. The wind gusts will easily exceed 30 mph and temperatures continue to be warm. Even though we had some nice rainfall about a week and a half ago, fuels above the ground will easily ignite. 

When will it all change:

A cold front pushes in Thursday, which starts the downward trend. It won't be THAT big of a change initially, as we are still forecasting 50s Thursday afternoon. And look where the first batch of moisture goes Thursday evening - to the east.

A developing storm is forecast to move into the Plains Friday/Saturday. At this time, this will likely be a LOW impact system for Kansas, with only light snow chances and most of the heavier rain missing to the east.

There will still likely be some changes to the forecast track and impact, but models are coming into alignment that the biggest deal for Kansas will be the MUCH colder air. Severe storms are going to be a possibility from Texas up through Arkansas by Friday evening.

Potential Rain Amounts: Big moisture goes east with 2-4" rains likely in Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Illinois, etc. Much of Kansas will see light snow (that melts down to under a .25") and rainfall in south central Kansas will likely be .25" or less too.

Arctic air WATCH:

We've been sounding this alarm for quite some time - alerting you to a bigger change that looks to setup for the second half of January. We will see how much of the cold air pushes into Kansas, but the next several weeks look much chillier for our area.

Snowfall checkup & first meteor shower of the year

Hope your 2020 is off to a great start. We are just a few weeks away from reaching the halfway mark of meteorological winter. That may seem a bit confusing considering the official start to winter was only two weeks ago, but the months of December, January, and February are the main months for snow and cold.

Look where we stand with respect to snowfall since October 1st:

Much of the state continues with lower than normal snowfall and it won't likely change soon. 

What's happening right now is more of a westerly storm track that delivers fronts and fast moving low pressure systems that DON'T have much moisture. So as they track into our area, we get clouds and wind. Best rain chances will stay off to the south and east of Kansas. This will happen again later next week when a cold front comes through on Thursday.

Temperatures won't be changing much over the next 7 or 8 days. Some of the chilliest weather may come through around Tuesday, but it's NOT Arctic air for Kansas AND when you get down to it, it will still be above normal.

First meteor shower of 2020: Quadrantids

This should be a good one to check out late Friday night and early Saturday morning. The moon will be setting around midnight, so right as we go into prime viewing there won't be any extra light to wash away meteors. It is suggested that looking toward the northeast and about half way up off the horizon should give one a chance at seeing more meteors than looking in any other direction.

Have a great weekend!

January outlook - are we ready for the cold?

I want to wish you a Happy New Year - and thank you for trusting us another year with forecasts and information that is hopefully helpful to you in your life and line of work.

December has been a warm month!

This month is currently on track to be 15th warmest on record for south central Kansas. Much of the state has had a decent stretch of mild weather and certainly the 60° weather (like on Christmas Day) helped to push us into the top 20. The map below shows the average temperatures for the entire US - and it's been quite warm except in the southwest.

We thought December had a good chance of being warmer than normal, but I'm cautioning you that January, February, and even March look colder (February AND March could be MUCH colder). It won't be an instant flip, but I think in the next 2-4 weeks, we are going to start seeing stronger fronts coming south and more threats of Arctic air.

What's normal:

January should start near to above normal:

Later in the month, we will see if that much colder air farther north continues to push south like we are anticipating. Models are hinting that may happen.

Precipitation: January isn't normally a month where we get very much precipitation. I don't think we will be completely left out of the rain/snow chances, but I also don't see it being a month with above normal moisture. It looks like we have a good chance of ending up "near normal", which for much of the state would be .50-1" for the entire 31 day period. Already our first system of 2020 will arrive Thursday/Friday, but it will have limited amounts of rain/snow with it. The map below is a forecast through January 15th, which shows much of Kansas getting up to .50" (most of which will likely happen with the system coming through Thursday/Friday)

Have a Happy New Year and thanks for spending a few minutes here.