Possible record New Years Day snow - plenty of cold coming

I went digging for the snowiest New Years Day on record for some different places around Kansas. Wichita had a record setting 6.5" just last year and I think that record will stand. However, keep an eye on Dodge City and Goodland because those records could be in jeopardy based on current forecasts. 

The start time of the winter storm has been pushed back a bit - so most of New Years Eve will be just fine, but turning much colder. It appears we will start getting a bit icy after midnight in many areas - road conditions will start deteriorating. 

Ice accumulations: We still think some sleet will accumulate in central and southern Kansas before the snow begins to take over. It's unlikely the ice accumulation will be enough to cause widespread power failures or lead to tree damage, but this will definitely be a concern for anybody looking to travel Saturday.

Snow accumulation: Heaviest will stretch from west central Kansas across central Kansas and into northeast parts of the state. These predictions are always tricking, because small snow bands can produce some higher totals that our models have trouble seeing. 

Next week: Another blast of VERY cold air will be coming south into the central and northern Plains. We should develop some snow in Nebraska on Wednesday and that band of light snow may push into Kansas Wednesday night/Thursday. It doesn't appear that we will have a big snow event, but what will be the headline is how much of the country will be going into the deep freeze for awhile. At this time, it doesn't look like a repeat of February 2021, but we could have two or three consecutive days with sub-freezing temperatures. Hello winter.

Have a Happy New Year.

Winter storm update - January thoughts

A winter storm is still on track for the area heading into Friday night/Saturday morning. One of the things we've noticed in the last 24 hours is that it appears the storm will arrive a bit sooner than earlier forecasts suggested. We need the moisture so bad I don't think any of us would turn this system away, even though the type of precipitation may not be your favorite.

Figuring out how much snow is something we are working on, but if we get our first one inch, it will NOT be the latest 1st one inch of snow. Those records are as follows:

We are still waiting for the system to develop and get into the US where we can sample it with weather balloons. That will give us a much clearer picture of how much rain, ice, and snow we may be facing. Here's what the timing looks like now - and again, it has been pushed up to start Friday night after dark and continue through Saturday morning. 

Earliest start time (7-9pm - west):

Around midnight:

Areas south of a line from Pratt to Hutch over to Emporia should expect some rain, then some icy weather, then a change to snow. Farther west, it will all be snow.

Temperatures around midnight could look like this: Notice where the freezing line may be at the time. Much of the state will be well below 32, so accumulations of snow and some ice should be expected.

8AM Saturday:

Wind chills (early Saturday):

This is the only system on the horizon right now, so once it blows through, that will be it for now. And it looks as if we will warm back up some next week. A return to 50s seems reasonable given the overall setup. However, don't expect a lengthy stretch of warm weather because there should blast of much colder air (possible Arctic air) coming this way. Models seem to agree that either Thursday or Friday, a front may move across the Plains.

Quick January outlook:

Looks like the month as a whole will be colder than December was for Kansas. There will be some warm weather mixed in, but it wouldn't be a surprise if the northern half and the western half of the country ended up with a colder than average month. 

As for moisture... there are hopeful signs that January will have more opportunities for rain/snow compared to December, but it won't be a drought ending month. January isn't known for having big precipitation anyway, and the upcoming month is likely no different.

Have a great day.

Potential New Years storms

Hope you had a nice Christmas - understanding some of you may still be enjoying some time away from work and/or your normal routine. The bone dry conditions in Kansas haven't changed - we're still having some unusual warmth and likely headed for the 2nd warmest December on record in many places.

• Dodge City: Avg. Temp 42.8 (2nd Warmest)  -  Warmest was 1889 with 44.6 in Dec
• Wichita: 44.9 (2nd Warmest) - Warmest was 1889 with 46.4
• Salina: 41.4 (Warmest on record) - beats the previous record of 40.6 in 1939

I would've never thought it would be THIS warm in December - thinking a flip to cold would've happened at least a week ago. Rest assured, we are now moving into our 2nd full week of winter and it looks like colder days are certainly on the way.

First blast of cold air comes Wednesday:

This isn't going to set records, but it's going to be an abrupt shift from this strange month we've had. It still looks dry and mainly sunny midweek, but temperatures will be much colder.

Potential New Years Storm:

We've been afraid to mention any precipitation in the long range (for fear of scaring it away). Each time we thought we had something coming, it either passed by to the east or never materialized. Models have had some unusual agreement that something appears to be developing in time for the New Years holiday. This would be the 2nd year in a row to have a New Years Day storm. Will it happen?

The energy in the atmosphere that may create the storm is over in Asia at the moment. Plenty of questions will get answer in the next two - three days as we get more information.

Timing: Looks like it will be AFTER New Years Eve celebrations

Clouds will be increasing on Friday ahead of the system, but I wouldn't expect much (or any) moisture to be taking place on Friday. Here's a snapshot of Friday at 11 P.M.

New Years Day:

Bitter cold air should be rushing south, so any opportunity for liquid precipitation would be brief at best (likely in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday). Most of the state will be looking at chances for snow. 

5AM - Saturday

3PM - Saturday

We won't even begin to speculate on amounts this many days out - but it definitely doesn't look like a doozy. It would, however, be the first measurable snow for much of Kansas this winter. And I think everybody knows how badly we need the moisture. 

Safe to say the first few days of 2022 will be cold for the Plains. It's about time we have some winter. I'll get you a January outlook later this week. Have a great day.

Was it a "derecho" that hit Kansas? And a preview of what comes next

The damaging wind event that hit Kansas is something we will be talking about for a long time. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it and that seems to be a sentiment shared with others. There were many things that were impressive about that day, not the least of which was this report from Storm Prediction Center from Norman, OK. 

Hurricanes produce these kinds of winds, but actual reports (ground truth observations) can sometimes be fairly isolated when hurricanes are making landfall. Only the most intense hurricanes produce widespread wind reports like the Plains saw on Wednesday.

We had some discussion after the fact about the setup and why such enhancement to the wind. A strong low pressure moved out of Colorado and into Nebraska, but there were thunderstorms that also developed along an advancing cold front through central and northern Kansas. This may have set off a "derecho" - which is a basically a long-lived, widespread wind event, usually associated with thunderstorms. There are some criteria it has to meet:

• Must be at least 250 miles long (Wednesday storms stretched from Oklahoma to Minnesota)
• Wind reports must be 58mph or greater for most of the line
• Must be other wind reports of 75mph or stronger with the line (we had multiple 80-100 mph reports & not just in Kansas)

These would be more common in summer across the northern Plains and upper Midwest and they can travel hundreds of miles. How they form can get pretty deep, but in the image above, the entire line of storms is moving to the right. New storms form on the front end of the line as the entire thing keeps moving along. On the back side (which is what may have happened in Russell and many other areas of central and northern Kansas), there was a strong jet that develop on the backside (usually associated with cooler air descending from above). When that wind started hitting the ground, things went from bad to worse. We are thinking of everybody that had some kind of loss in Wednesday's windstorm and hope the cleanup and recovery is speedy. 

Is the cold finally coming on?

We've been talking about it and hinting at it for weeks now. Every time we think things are changing around, the warm air comes surging right back. We are seeing a high pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska and another one near Greenland. This is usually a pretty good signal for the onset of much colder air diving south into the lower 48. There's evidence of this around Christmas and into New Years, so let's continue to watch. If this cuts loose, we could be in for a stretch of true winter weather - maybe not record cold, but more along the lines of what we would typically get this time of year anyway.  

I still don't see anything on the horizon yet for moisture - at least nothing that looks promising yet. 

This will be the last blog post prior to Christmas - happy holidays. Hope you'll check back in right after Christmas. 

More severe weather & tornadoes - dangerous winds

This unusual month of December continues and probably one we won't soon forget. The damaging and deadly tornadoes from last Friday, the widespread record warmth in much of the country, the ongoing drought for the Plains, and now more severe storms in places that should have snow and cold. 

Here's the setup for Wednesday afternoon and into the evening. More rough weather will develop north of Kansas City and track northeast. The storms will move at 50-65 mph and could produce more tornadoes after sunset in Iowa and Minnesota. 

The concern is that it will be after dark, but also the fact that storms will move so quickly, warning times may be cut down compared to what folks had in Kentucky and Arkansas late last week.

Storm Prediction Center is calling this an "unprecedented setup for this region this late in the year". A moderate risk is out for Iowa and southern Minnesota. 

Meanwhile in Kansas - it's all about the wind. Please be careful out there. We will see the wind relaxing overnight and early Thursday.

Still no sign of rain yet. We have a couple of "close calls", but they will all go south of us in the coming days. Frustrating - but hang in there.  

Big warming trend ahead of what sure looks like winter

Winter storm #1 for the Plains is all but a dud for Kansas anyway. Accumulations look minimal, but what we lack in moisture will be made up for in wind. The drought is ongoing and the lack of measurable rainfall (or snow) is starting to set records. Here's the latest for Salina:

We are officially moving into top 10 longest stretches with no moisture. 

Wichita isn't there yet. We still have some time before that may happen, but with our forecast still looking so dry, there is a possibility of it happening yet. By the way, we do have information like this for western Kansas, which we will be sharing next week if no measurable moisture falls Friday.

2nd week of December: Let's go ahead and jump to what's happening next, which is a huge shift again in the jet stream back to the north. Once again, record high temperatures will fall. I'm looking at Tuesday and Wednesday for the best chances of reaching the records. 

The West coast is going to have a tremendous storm on Tuesday. Big rains and snows should hit California with badly needed precipitation. Nice to see this happening with how bad the drought continues to be, but sure wish we could get some of that moisture here.

That storm will move northeast and end up too far northwest of Kansas to bring moisture here. Don't count on ending the dry streak next week because we will once again be in the wrong spot. I am a little concerned about how windy it may be Wednesday. Check back for more details soon.

Early thoughts on Christmas week

I think we will see things turn back COLD before Christmas. The week leading up to Christmas Eve and Christmas sure look different down the stretch. Couple of things I'm noticing now. Arctic Oscillation is trending negative on almost all charts. That can be an early indication of a changing pattern. 

Some of the longer range models are locking in on a return to colder weather. We may be dealing with a high pressure setting up in the Gulf of Alaska, and that can be an ideal setup for forcing cold air south. This is NOT set in stone yet, but this is December and we can't be 60s and 70s all month, can we? I mean, there has to be a flip side of this warmth, and I think it's coming in the 2nd half of the month.

What about moisture? It's not promising - so don't hold your breath on anything big for now. That's not to say we couldn't have some weak storm coming through, but I think this is a part of the pattern that delivers cold and not much moisture. Who knows, maybe I'll be wrong about that, but I think this is the part of the pattern that is dry and cold. 

Have a great day.

First winter storm in the Plains and look at these stats

The first true winter storm of the season for the Plains will be coming through at the end of this week. Confidence is high enough now to start thinking about snow accumulations and where it will all probably go. If you've followed some of our maps on the air, you know it's likely going to slide mainly west and north of Kansas, but here's what we are seeing now.

Start time - late Friday morning - afternoon

Areas west of a line from Leoti to WaKeeney to Smith Center should have the highest chance of seeing the snow (even if it's fairly light). The storm is forecast to move quickly, so that will limit amounts in Kansas. In order for more of the state to get snow, the track would need to be another 200+ miles south, and it's very unlikely we will see that dramatic of a change between now and when the system arrives. Remember, when it comes to a winter system, the heaviest snow falls north of the low pressure center (usually 75-100 miles or more)

It's expected that Nebraska will likely see some 3-6 inch amounts. Even higher totals are likely in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Could be 6-8 inches in a few of those areas.

Drought drags on: 

The streak of no rain for Kansas continues. The last bit of moisture was in early November, but that wasn't anything heavy or widespread. While we wait, consider these stats. In the last 25 years (going back to 1996), the longest dry stretches are as follows:

• 43 days - Salina
• 53 days - Dodge City
• 35 days - Wichita
• 54 days - Goodland
  

This means that Salina is on the verge of having it's longest dry spell in 25 years (and maybe even longer). Other locations will have that too if no rain or snow happens in the next 10-12 days. Goodland could see an end to their dry streak with the late week winter storm, but it definitely won't erase any amount of drought. We will need a significant amount of moisture to do that - not just one storm.

Have a great day. There may be a price to pay for all of the warm weather, but it definitely won't be in the 2nd full week of December. More about that later in the week.

Winter Forecast 2021-22

Meteorological winter is here! The month of December, January, and February are the three months out of the year meteorologists classify as "winter", even though the solstice doesn't occur until December 21st. Long range forecasts are difficult to say the least, but it's probably the most asked question when somebody catches us on the street. How bad will the winter be? Are we in for a wet spring? Will the summer be brutally hot? The need for information is out there, so we try to do the best we can with the information that is in front of us.

Last winter:

Highlights include:

• October snow (several areas had the earliest measurable before Halloween)
• November was warmer than normal
• December was warmer than normal
• January - warmer than normal
• February - Record cold!
• Snowfall was near to above normal
• Goodland: 33.7"
• Dodge City: 19.3"
• Wichita: 17.4"

This was one of the maps we showed on the air during the bitter cold in mid-February. 

 

It set records, caused frozen pipes, and had many folks across the south wondering how in the world it could get so cold. Remember all of the terrible news from Texas with the power grid failure and rolling blackouts? Much of the country was definitely in a deep freeze.

This winter:

We are once again faced with a La Niña setup, but it may not be as strong as the La Niña we had last winter. The difference may be small, but sometimes those subtle differences have drastic influences. 

A La Niña winter doesn't necessarily mean we will have no snow or major snow - that's what makes this complicated. In looking back at the last 20 years only, note the following:

• 2020-21 (moderate La Niña) - Above normal snow
• 2017-18 (weak La Niña) -  Below normal snow
• 2016-17 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2011-12 (weakening La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2010-11 (strong La Niña) - Above normal snow
• 2008-09 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2005-06 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2000-01 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow

In the region that is monitored for La Niña (or El Niño), water temperatures are only about .7℃ below average. Doesn't sound like very much, does it? That's what most would consider weak, but last winter, water temperatures were more than 1℃ cooler than normal. This is something that is expected to hold on through spring of 2022. 

It does appear that La Niña winters have some WILD variability when it comes to temperatures, and I think we may see that again this winter. It will be very interesting to try and pin down when these extremes will happen. We have had some amazing warmth to end November and now starting December, but a flip is going to happen. It should still be a few weeks away from doing so, but I wouldn't be surprised if right around Christmas (or shortly after) if we start paying the price for all of the warmth we've had. Take a look at one setup for late December: 

Other considerations:

Arctic Oscillation: when it goes negative, we expect much better chances to go cold across the lower 48 United States. A positive AO would suggest a likelihood of warmer temperatures (or cold snaps that are very brief) Right now, we continue to be in positive territory, so one would expect any real cold weather to be extremely brief or on hold altogether. 

Bottom line:

Just because we've been really warm to start the winter season doesn't mean there isn't something more drastic coming. Late December and early January look cold to me. More Arctic air should be coming in February and March. This may be one of those winters that drags out longer than one might want.

A deep trough, or low pressure, setting up over the Great Lakes would keep the colder air coming, and is something I think we will see many times in the months ahead.

When low pressure develops up near Alaska, we will likely have plenty of warm air spreading back through the central/northern Plains. Those will be our stretches coming up in late January or early February and may last weeks at a time.

And the questions about rain/snow: It's highly likely that drought persists for Kansas this winter. In this kind of winter pattern, we will have a 3 or 4 decent winter storms developing west of the Rockies. However, it's not likely to wipe out drought and when all is said and done, I think below normal snowfall is the right call between December and late March. 

Final thoughts on the upcoming winter season:

 

 Thanks for spending some time reading up on our winter weather prediction. If you have questions, email, tweet, or Facebook. rjanssen@kwch.com  or KWCHRoss on Twitter. We will have more to share in the coming days and weeks.