Winter Forecast 2021-22

Meteorological winter is here! The month of December, January, and February are the three months out of the year meteorologists classify as "winter", even though the solstice doesn't occur until December 21st. Long range forecasts are difficult to say the least, but it's probably the most asked question when somebody catches us on the street. How bad will the winter be? Are we in for a wet spring? Will the summer be brutally hot? The need for information is out there, so we try to do the best we can with the information that is in front of us.

Last winter:

Highlights include:

• October snow (several areas had the earliest measurable before Halloween)
• November was warmer than normal
• December was warmer than normal
• January - warmer than normal
• February - Record cold!
• Snowfall was near to above normal
• Goodland: 33.7"
• Dodge City: 19.3"
• Wichita: 17.4"

This was one of the maps we showed on the air during the bitter cold in mid-February. 

 

It set records, caused frozen pipes, and had many folks across the south wondering how in the world it could get so cold. Remember all of the terrible news from Texas with the power grid failure and rolling blackouts? Much of the country was definitely in a deep freeze.

This winter:

We are once again faced with a La Niña setup, but it may not be as strong as the La Niña we had last winter. The difference may be small, but sometimes those subtle differences have drastic influences. 

A La Niña winter doesn't necessarily mean we will have no snow or major snow - that's what makes this complicated. In looking back at the last 20 years only, note the following:

• 2020-21 (moderate La Niña) - Above normal snow
• 2017-18 (weak La Niña) -  Below normal snow
• 2016-17 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2011-12 (weakening La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2010-11 (strong La Niña) - Above normal snow
• 2008-09 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2005-06 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow
• 2000-01 (weak La Niña) - Below normal snow

In the region that is monitored for La Niña (or El Niño), water temperatures are only about .7℃ below average. Doesn't sound like very much, does it? That's what most would consider weak, but last winter, water temperatures were more than 1℃ cooler than normal. This is something that is expected to hold on through spring of 2022. 

It does appear that La Niña winters have some WILD variability when it comes to temperatures, and I think we may see that again this winter. It will be very interesting to try and pin down when these extremes will happen. We have had some amazing warmth to end November and now starting December, but a flip is going to happen. It should still be a few weeks away from doing so, but I wouldn't be surprised if right around Christmas (or shortly after) if we start paying the price for all of the warmth we've had. Take a look at one setup for late December: 

Other considerations:

Arctic Oscillation: when it goes negative, we expect much better chances to go cold across the lower 48 United States. A positive AO would suggest a likelihood of warmer temperatures (or cold snaps that are very brief) Right now, we continue to be in positive territory, so one would expect any real cold weather to be extremely brief or on hold altogether. 

Bottom line:

Just because we've been really warm to start the winter season doesn't mean there isn't something more drastic coming. Late December and early January look cold to me. More Arctic air should be coming in February and March. This may be one of those winters that drags out longer than one might want.

A deep trough, or low pressure, setting up over the Great Lakes would keep the colder air coming, and is something I think we will see many times in the months ahead.

When low pressure develops up near Alaska, we will likely have plenty of warm air spreading back through the central/northern Plains. Those will be our stretches coming up in late January or early February and may last weeks at a time.

And the questions about rain/snow: It's highly likely that drought persists for Kansas this winter. In this kind of winter pattern, we will have a 3 or 4 decent winter storms developing west of the Rockies. However, it's not likely to wipe out drought and when all is said and done, I think below normal snowfall is the right call between December and late March. 

Final thoughts on the upcoming winter season:

 

 Thanks for spending some time reading up on our winter weather prediction. If you have questions, email, tweet, or Facebook. rjanssen@kwch.com  or KWCHRoss on Twitter. We will have more to share in the coming days and weeks.