Winter storm #1 for the Plains is all but a dud for Kansas anyway. Accumulations look minimal, but what we lack in moisture will be made up for in wind. The drought is ongoing and the lack of measurable rainfall (or snow) is starting to set records. Here's the latest for Salina:
We are officially moving into top 10 longest stretches with no moisture.
Wichita isn't there yet. We still have some time before that may happen, but with our forecast still looking so dry, there is a possibility of it happening yet. By the way, we do have information like this for western Kansas, which we will be sharing next week if no measurable moisture falls Friday.
2nd week of December: Let's go ahead and jump to what's happening next, which is a huge shift again in the jet stream back to the north. Once again, record high temperatures will fall. I'm looking at Tuesday and Wednesday for the best chances of reaching the records.
The West coast is going to have a tremendous storm on Tuesday. Big rains and snows should hit California with badly needed precipitation. Nice to see this happening with how bad the drought continues to be, but sure wish we could get some of that moisture here.
That storm will move northeast and end up too far northwest of Kansas to bring moisture here. Don't count on ending the dry streak next week because we will once again be in the wrong spot. I am a little concerned about how windy it may be Wednesday. Check back for more details soon.
Early thoughts on Christmas week
I think we will see things turn back COLD before Christmas. The week leading up to Christmas Eve and Christmas sure look different down the stretch. Couple of things I'm noticing now. Arctic Oscillation is trending negative on almost all charts. That can be an early indication of a changing pattern.
Some of the longer range models are locking in on a return to colder weather. We may be dealing with a high pressure setting up in the Gulf of Alaska, and that can be an ideal setup for forcing cold air south. This is NOT set in stone yet, but this is December and we can't be 60s and 70s all month, can we? I mean, there has to be a flip side of this warmth, and I think it's coming in the 2nd half of the month.
What about moisture? It's not promising - so don't hold your breath on anything big for now. That's not to say we couldn't have some weak storm coming through, but I think this is a part of the pattern that delivers cold and not much moisture. Who knows, maybe I'll be wrong about that, but I think this is the part of the pattern that is dry and cold.
Have a great day.
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