Potential New Years storms

Hope you had a nice Christmas - understanding some of you may still be enjoying some time away from work and/or your normal routine. The bone dry conditions in Kansas haven't changed - we're still having some unusual warmth and likely headed for the 2nd warmest December on record in many places.

• Dodge City: Avg. Temp 42.8 (2nd Warmest)  -  Warmest was 1889 with 44.6 in Dec
• Wichita: 44.9 (2nd Warmest) - Warmest was 1889 with 46.4
• Salina: 41.4 (Warmest on record) - beats the previous record of 40.6 in 1939

I would've never thought it would be THIS warm in December - thinking a flip to cold would've happened at least a week ago. Rest assured, we are now moving into our 2nd full week of winter and it looks like colder days are certainly on the way.

First blast of cold air comes Wednesday:

This isn't going to set records, but it's going to be an abrupt shift from this strange month we've had. It still looks dry and mainly sunny midweek, but temperatures will be much colder.

Potential New Years Storm:

We've been afraid to mention any precipitation in the long range (for fear of scaring it away). Each time we thought we had something coming, it either passed by to the east or never materialized. Models have had some unusual agreement that something appears to be developing in time for the New Years holiday. This would be the 2nd year in a row to have a New Years Day storm. Will it happen?

The energy in the atmosphere that may create the storm is over in Asia at the moment. Plenty of questions will get answer in the next two - three days as we get more information.

Timing: Looks like it will be AFTER New Years Eve celebrations

Clouds will be increasing on Friday ahead of the system, but I wouldn't expect much (or any) moisture to be taking place on Friday. Here's a snapshot of Friday at 11 P.M.

New Years Day:

Bitter cold air should be rushing south, so any opportunity for liquid precipitation would be brief at best (likely in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday). Most of the state will be looking at chances for snow. 

5AM - Saturday

3PM - Saturday

We won't even begin to speculate on amounts this many days out - but it definitely doesn't look like a doozy. It would, however, be the first measurable snow for much of Kansas this winter. And I think everybody knows how badly we need the moisture. 

Safe to say the first few days of 2022 will be cold for the Plains. It's about time we have some winter. I'll get you a January outlook later this week. Have a great day.