April outlook for the Plains

February was one of the coldest months in recent history for Kansas followed by a wet March (top 5 wettest in many areas - Goodland with the wettest on record). Just a quick summary of the precipitation for major reporting stations in Kansas shows that much of the area ends the month above average. 

April stats look like this:

Days of course are getting longer and we will gain more than an hour of daylight between the beginning and end of the month. April is not usually our wettest month, but the expected rainfall does goes up.

April starts WARM!

Afternoon temperatures from Easter weekend through the first full week of the month are going to be well above average. Highs would normally be in the 60s, but I think we will see plenty of 70s and 80s in the first 8-10 days. 

Rainfall: The month also starts dry. I wouldn't expect any rain (or significant moisture) in the first 7 or 8 days.

Mid-April looks much more active:

A good portion of our monthly rain may come toward the middle of the month. The pattern looks like it will favor stormy weather across the western two-thirds of the country, so we may be looking at an increasing severe threat (and better chances for spring rains). The map shown above would suggest for the period of April 9-14, the Plains would get about 100-150% of normal rain (which would equal about an inch or so)

Another chilly snap is coming!

I'm anticipating another big drop in temperatures into mid-April. Remember the bitter cold snap in mid-February that set record lows? This may be the April version of that returning to the Plains, so it won't be as brutal, but be careful in starting the spring garden (especially with sensitive plants or annuals). Our last spring frost (normally) would happen in the first 10-15 days of the month, so it wouldn't be that unusual to have a night or two with lows in the 20s. Be on the lookout.

More rain later in the month:

 

This doesn't have the indications of blockbuster rain, but I would expect more nice rains potentially setting up late in the month. This may help to keep temperatures below normal too. 

I think the strongest potential of severe storms will come as we make the switch from warm (beginning of the month) to the cooler weather into mid-April. I'm looking at the period of April 9-16 to have an increasing threat, but to what magnitude is still up in the air.

Have a great day.

Big rains ending for now

Yet another large, sprawling storm tracking through the area with big rainfall. Just take a look at some of the 24 hour totals through 7am Tuesday. This will definitely deliver another setback to the drought conditions in Kansas, but in the far west, it will still be an ongoing ordeal.

Next rain chance Wednesday:

The amounts with the midweek system will be more along the lines of T-.25". It's yet another in a series of systems coming through the 4 Corners area, but it won't be particularly strong or organized. Plus, the moisture will be somewhat limited since it comes on the heels of the early week storm that dumped so much precipitation. 

Final chance of the week:

This will be a fast moving system pushing through Friday afternoon/night that may run into some ingredients to produce thunderstorms. It's most likely going to be a setup that favors heavier rain farther east. However, given the speed at which it's coming through, it doesn't seem likely that amounts will be more than .50". The setup also doesn't look favorable for severe thunderstorms.

End of March/early April thoughts:

I don't think we've had our last freeze yet. There's still a good chance much of the state will have a night or two dropping into the 20s, so spring gardeners beware. It may happen later next week. Stay tuned. I'm also feeling optimistic about a wet month of April ahead. The first few days of April will likely be dry, and it may stay that way until we get to the first full week of the month, but then it should get active once again. 

Drought improvement - can we keep this going?

The rainfall in March has done wonders for easing drought, but it hasn't entirely erased it yet. Big rains from the previous weekend (March storm #2) provided some 3-4"+ amounts for northwest Kansas, and that was enough to drop a category of drought. 

In the last 30 days, we still have areas that haven't had very much rain. You'll notice a pocket in central Kansas near Ellsworth, Lyons, and Salina that's only had about 1-1.5" of moisture. The far southwest is another pocket of lower rain totals. 

Drought monitor from one week ago:

Latest map (released Thursday - rainfall taken into account does NOT include Tue/Wed moisture)

Next storm arrives Sunday night/Monday:

This won't be the strongest system that we've seen this month, but it does look to provide more widespread rainfall for the area. It is unlikely there will be severe thunderstorms, but we will have some thunder in the area heading into Monday. The system could slow down a bit as it crosses Kansas, so we may end up with some 1" rains in areas. Western Kansas may be on the lower end of the totals (closer to .50"), but it will still help.

Severe weather climatology:

It was a rough week with tornadoes and damage in Alabama and Mississippi back on Wednesday. It is certainly not uncommon this time of year to have severe storms and tornadoes in that part of the country. Severe weather season start there and then spreads back to the west as temperatures warm and the upper level winds begin to shift back northward. The graphic below shows where tornadoes are "more likely" in mid-March.

 

Mid-April, it spreads back to the west and north.

You can look back at the previous blog post earlier this week and see that near or above normal rains should continue for several more weeks. There are plenty of indicators pointing toward active weather right into April, so if you are needing rain (or planting, or putting fertilizer on), this is good news.

Next round, here we go - and a look to late March

Halfway through March with two storms in the books and another one about to hit the Plains. Another round of severe storms is expected Tuesday night/early Wednesday with heavy rainfall, some hail, and eventually snow. 

The setup:

Another strong low pressure will track from the desert Southwest and right into the Plains. An ample supply of humidity remains for this system to interact with, combined with a warm front and strong upper level winds. A favored area of large hail should show up in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma right into Wednesday morning. Storms will tend to more northeast once they get going. 

Timing:

Anytime after 10pm is when most of this will get started. Once the storms take off, they will move northeast with a hail and heavy rain potential.

Rainfall amounts: The actual numbers will vary when all is said and done, but we do feel pretty confident that another inch of rain will fall in southwest, central and eastern Kansas. The northwest will probably get some very light rain or snow, but not anything close to what happened over the weekend.

Winter isn't over just yet:

Big snow fell in Colorado on the backside of our weekend storm, but this time around, a farther south and east track will deliver snow to western Kansas and then eventually some of central/eastern Kansas. It will be close enough to freezing that it should be a heavy wet snow (which means it could pile up in grassy areas fast), but some of it will melt as it comes down too. 

There's still a promising sign of more rain coming during the later stages of the month:

An active storm track will likely persist as we move later into the month. This will likely yield more rain for drought areas across western Kansas. The blue colors indicate nearly "200%" of normal rain, which could easily be another 2 or 3 inches before the month is over. It won't end the drought, but we will end the month in much better shape than how it started. 

Temperatures will probably stay near or slightly below normal and I definitely wouldn't say we've had our last frost/freeze yet. 

This is impressive for March - and travelers beware headed west

Heading into our second March storm and as I mentioned earlier this week, things get much more interesting this go around (compared to what happened in our first week of the month). There's a severe weather potential, some heavy rain, and maybe a historic snow event in the making for Colorado. Travel is not advised out near Denver or Colorado Springs as snow will likely be measured in feet before it's all over with.

Good rain chances Friday/Saturday:

We are still on track to see rain develop across the eastern half of Kansas Friday. The heavier amounts (for Friday at least) will be focused in south central Kansas. I'm expecting about a half an inch (.50") by the end of the day. 

Biggest rains come Saturday-Saturday night:

The overall speed of the storm looks a bit faster, so most of the 1-2" rains will fall Saturday during the day and into the night. Most of it will move from south to north as the low pressure spins up over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. It is worth pointing out that some strong storms with hail could develop in southern Kansas Saturday. There's going to be much warmer air getting drawn into the weekend system, so ingredients may come together for severe storms (mainly along and south of Hwy 54 and into Oklahoma)

Some showers may still be left around Sunday: there will be some rain still around early, early Sunday, but during the afternoon the sun may come up for a bit and warm us up into the 60s. And the wind will be gusty, but not out of control like we've seen lately.

How much rain? Still looks like widespread 1-2 inch amounts are likely for Kansas, but just know there are places that will get more. Given the setup, I think central and northern Kansas could receive the most (possibly close to 2.5"). The model shown below has some 3" amounts, which would be more than our average rainfall in the entire month. This will be such a good boost heading into spring and the growing season. Definitely a drought easing setup.

Big time snows in Colorado this weekend: This could be one for the history books. The top 5 biggest snows in Denver's history are as follows:

1. 45.7"
2. 31.8"
3. 30.4"
4. 23.8"
5. 23.0"

This storm could easily drop 2 FEET of snow before it departs, but will it be in Denver or just outside the city? It will likely result in some highway closures and near impossible travel into the mountains. The model shown below doesn't give Denver major amounts, but look at Boulder. Can you imagine 46" of snow? Wow. Even parts of Nebraska will get heavy amounts before it's all over.

 

 Have a great day. Enjoy the rain.

Needing rain? This is going to get interesting

We've already had one March storm roll through the Plains and another is headed this way very soon. The first one wasn't anything out of the ordinary with all rain in Kansas - no severe storms and no snow. System #2 (arriving at the end of this week) is going to be different. 

First things first - Wednesday:

A cold front is going to push in and bring chances for scattered (not statewide) storms. The last several computer models have indicated the highest chances remaining east of I-135, so this isn't going to cover much real estate in our area. What storms do get going are likely to move northeast (and timing should be after 6 or 7pm) A few quarter size hail stones and a brief wind gust to 60 are not out of the question, but severe threat on a larger scale is unlikely.

Huge upper low moves in Friday - Sunday:

This will be like a bowling ball rolling east for the end of the week, sucking up rich humidity along the way, and then delivering what might be a months worth of rain in just 24-36 hours. March is not our wettest month of the year, but we do average a couple of inches in the 31 day time span. There's potential of making a nice dent in drought for western Kansas and really providing some benefit to the winter wheat crop.

Friday is not a statewide rain, but just the start:

If nothing changes, draw a line from Dodge City to Salina and east of there, that's your Friday rain. It's doubtful that there will be too many thunderstorms in this batch of rain, but not something to completely rule out. These showers will mainly push northeast throughout the day.

Saturday:

As the core of the storm gets energized and pushes into the area from the 4 Corners, we are going to see severe storms develop south into Oklahoma and Texas. This might be the first real severe threat of the early meteorological spring season in the central and southern Plains. I'm expecting the main focus for hail, wind, and some tornadoes to be focused south of the KS/OK line. Kansas will be on the cooler side with highs in the 40s to near 50, and that will limit the chances of severe storms. However, we will get rain, and western Kansas could be looking at snow (with accumulations possible). 

This is a slow moving, large low pressure system, meaning it will still be in our are Sunday. While the heaviest of the precipitation is over with by then, I do expect some showers to redevelop over the area in the second half of the weekend. The image shown below is taking into account Friday - Sunday.

Potential quick shot of Arctic air next week:

In March, that usually equates to highs in the 30s and they are usually short lived (a couple of days at most) Most of us are ready for spring to be here in full gear, a last gasp of winter in mid-March is normal. This is something we've been anticipating for awhile and likely going to dominate for our third full week of this month. 

Severe weather outlook 2021

As Severe Weather Awareness Week draws to a close, you've probably been hearing throughout the week predictions of a rough spring. I've had some Facebook messages requesting I talk more about it, so I've decided to post some maps for you to look at and consider with all of the warm weather in our forecast for the second week of March. 

Remember, La Nina is the colder than normal water near the Equator in the Pacific. And water temperatures have been about 1°C below average. This will likely continue into summer, and perhaps longer.  Even though this phenomenon is hundreds of miles away, its impacts are felt across the entire US (and beyond)

 

Research shows that La Nina spring patterns favor more frequent hailstorms AND an uptick in tornadoes too. The biggest increases are in southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma, but given it's close proximity, it is something to consider in spring forecasting.

That's primarily where these forecasts are coming from, but there's more to it.

One of the things that has been striking about this winter is just how busy the pattern has been. Just look at the maps below. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, we've had MANY storms (some strong - others weak) coming in from the west. If this kind of setup continues through spring, and there isn't any reason to think it won't, we could have several bouts with strong or severe thunderstorms. Other ingredients will be necessary for thunderstorms, like rich, Gulf of Mexico humidity. We don't know exact setups until we are about 3 or 4 days away, but expectations would point to a persistent train of storms from the west coming through the Plains.

Just take a look at some of these winter setups dating back into early December:

I don't think Kansas severe weather season will start early this year given that we have another very chilly snap coming up soon. After that's over, things could heat up quickly. The map below shows average temperatures March 16-21 and much of the country may have a late winter rally. It's not Arctic cold for Kansas, but there will be some of that in the upper Midwest. Highs in the 30s and 40s would be possible for a few days, but that's not really unusual in March. 

Enjoy your weekend. 

First March storm & the next two weeks will be busy

Just a few days into March and our first storm of the new month is moving closer to the Plains with rain and some thunderstorms likely. There's been much discussion about the season being quite active (more about that in the coming days), but this low tracking in from California is NOT a severe threat. It won't be for the lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture, because there should be an ample supply of that. 

Late February Drought Map:

It certainly looks like drought stricken western Kansas is going to get some moisture. Of course, this kind of rain needs to happen about 10 more times to end drought conditions. Based on the track the low pressure will take, most areas south of I-70 could be in the running for .25 to .50" (and it could go a little higher in spots). Unfortunately, for areas north of the interstate, it probably won't add up to very much.

Mid-March moisture- 

The next couple of weeks will be interesting. More active weather will be coming into the western US in our second week of March and will likely continue into the 3rd full week of the month too. This is reflected in the longer range models suggesting "100-200% normal rain" may take place. That would likely mean 1-2" of liquid moisture (and perhaps more), but keep in mind it could also be snow. 

Mid-March "chill" - 

I still think the middle of the month will be rather chilly, which might surprise a few of you after the string of 60s/70s that we are having lately. But take a look at what happens in mid-March. It will likely cool off and it may very well be the last "cold" snap with sub-freezing low temperatures. Time will tell, but don't start the spring garden just yet. 

Have a great day.