Needing rain? This is going to get interesting

We've already had one March storm roll through the Plains and another is headed this way very soon. The first one wasn't anything out of the ordinary with all rain in Kansas - no severe storms and no snow. System #2 (arriving at the end of this week) is going to be different. 

First things first - Wednesday:

A cold front is going to push in and bring chances for scattered (not statewide) storms. The last several computer models have indicated the highest chances remaining east of I-135, so this isn't going to cover much real estate in our area. What storms do get going are likely to move northeast (and timing should be after 6 or 7pm) A few quarter size hail stones and a brief wind gust to 60 are not out of the question, but severe threat on a larger scale is unlikely.

Huge upper low moves in Friday - Sunday:

This will be like a bowling ball rolling east for the end of the week, sucking up rich humidity along the way, and then delivering what might be a months worth of rain in just 24-36 hours. March is not our wettest month of the year, but we do average a couple of inches in the 31 day time span. There's potential of making a nice dent in drought for western Kansas and really providing some benefit to the winter wheat crop.

Friday is not a statewide rain, but just the start:

If nothing changes, draw a line from Dodge City to Salina and east of there, that's your Friday rain. It's doubtful that there will be too many thunderstorms in this batch of rain, but not something to completely rule out. These showers will mainly push northeast throughout the day.

Saturday:

As the core of the storm gets energized and pushes into the area from the 4 Corners, we are going to see severe storms develop south into Oklahoma and Texas. This might be the first real severe threat of the early meteorological spring season in the central and southern Plains. I'm expecting the main focus for hail, wind, and some tornadoes to be focused south of the KS/OK line. Kansas will be on the cooler side with highs in the 40s to near 50, and that will limit the chances of severe storms. However, we will get rain, and western Kansas could be looking at snow (with accumulations possible). 

This is a slow moving, large low pressure system, meaning it will still be in our are Sunday. While the heaviest of the precipitation is over with by then, I do expect some showers to redevelop over the area in the second half of the weekend. The image shown below is taking into account Friday - Sunday.

Potential quick shot of Arctic air next week:

In March, that usually equates to highs in the 30s and they are usually short lived (a couple of days at most) Most of us are ready for spring to be here in full gear, a last gasp of winter in mid-March is normal. This is something we've been anticipating for awhile and likely going to dominate for our third full week of this month.