Severe weather outlook 2021

As Severe Weather Awareness Week draws to a close, you've probably been hearing throughout the week predictions of a rough spring. I've had some Facebook messages requesting I talk more about it, so I've decided to post some maps for you to look at and consider with all of the warm weather in our forecast for the second week of March. 

Remember, La Nina is the colder than normal water near the Equator in the Pacific. And water temperatures have been about 1°C below average. This will likely continue into summer, and perhaps longer.  Even though this phenomenon is hundreds of miles away, its impacts are felt across the entire US (and beyond)

 

Research shows that La Nina spring patterns favor more frequent hailstorms AND an uptick in tornadoes too. The biggest increases are in southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma, but given it's close proximity, it is something to consider in spring forecasting.

That's primarily where these forecasts are coming from, but there's more to it.

One of the things that has been striking about this winter is just how busy the pattern has been. Just look at the maps below. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, we've had MANY storms (some strong - others weak) coming in from the west. If this kind of setup continues through spring, and there isn't any reason to think it won't, we could have several bouts with strong or severe thunderstorms. Other ingredients will be necessary for thunderstorms, like rich, Gulf of Mexico humidity. We don't know exact setups until we are about 3 or 4 days away, but expectations would point to a persistent train of storms from the west coming through the Plains.

Just take a look at some of these winter setups dating back into early December:

I don't think Kansas severe weather season will start early this year given that we have another very chilly snap coming up soon. After that's over, things could heat up quickly. The map below shows average temperatures March 16-21 and much of the country may have a late winter rally. It's not Arctic cold for Kansas, but there will be some of that in the upper Midwest. Highs in the 30s and 40s would be possible for a few days, but that's not really unusual in March. 

Enjoy your weekend.