First March storm & the next two weeks will be busy

Just a few days into March and our first storm of the new month is moving closer to the Plains with rain and some thunderstorms likely. There's been much discussion about the season being quite active (more about that in the coming days), but this low tracking in from California is NOT a severe threat. It won't be for the lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture, because there should be an ample supply of that. 

Late February Drought Map:

It certainly looks like drought stricken western Kansas is going to get some moisture. Of course, this kind of rain needs to happen about 10 more times to end drought conditions. Based on the track the low pressure will take, most areas south of I-70 could be in the running for .25 to .50" (and it could go a little higher in spots). Unfortunately, for areas north of the interstate, it probably won't add up to very much.

Mid-March moisture- 

The next couple of weeks will be interesting. More active weather will be coming into the western US in our second week of March and will likely continue into the 3rd full week of the month too. This is reflected in the longer range models suggesting "100-200% normal rain" may take place. That would likely mean 1-2" of liquid moisture (and perhaps more), but keep in mind it could also be snow. 

Mid-March "chill" - 

I still think the middle of the month will be rather chilly, which might surprise a few of you after the string of 60s/70s that we are having lately. But take a look at what happens in mid-March. It will likely cool off and it may very well be the last "cold" snap with sub-freezing low temperatures. Time will tell, but don't start the spring garden just yet. 

Have a great day.