Thursday, March 11, 2021

This is impressive for March - and travelers beware headed west

Heading into our second March storm and as I mentioned earlier this week, things get much more interesting this go around (compared to what happened in our first week of the month). There's a severe weather potential, some heavy rain, and maybe a historic snow event in the making for Colorado. Travel is not advised out near Denver or Colorado Springs as snow will likely be measured in feet before it's all over with.

Good rain chances Friday/Saturday:



We are still on track to see rain develop across the eastern half of Kansas Friday. The heavier amounts (for Friday at least) will be focused in south central Kansas. I'm expecting about a half an inch (.50") by the end of the day. 

Biggest rains come Saturday-Saturday night:

The overall speed of the storm looks a bit faster, so most of the 1-2" rains will fall Saturday during the day and into the night. Most of it will move from south to north as the low pressure spins up over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. It is worth pointing out that some strong storms with hail could develop in southern Kansas Saturday. There's going to be much warmer air getting drawn into the weekend system, so ingredients may come together for severe storms (mainly along and south of Hwy 54 and into Oklahoma)

Some showers may still be left around Sunday: there will be some rain still around early, early Sunday, but during the afternoon the sun may come up for a bit and warm us up into the 60s. And the wind will be gusty, but not out of control like we've seen lately.



How much rain? Still looks like widespread 1-2 inch amounts are likely for Kansas, but just know there are places that will get more. Given the setup, I think central and northern Kansas could receive the most (possibly close to 2.5"). The model shown below has some 3" amounts, which would be more than our average rainfall in the entire month. This will be such a good boost heading into spring and the growing season. Definitely a drought easing setup.

Big time snows in Colorado this weekend: This could be one for the history books. The top 5 biggest snows in Denver's history are as follows:

  1. 45.7"
  2. 31.8"
  3. 30.4"
  4. 23.8"
  5. 23.0"
This storm could easily drop 2 FEET of snow before it departs, but will it be in Denver or just outside the city? It will likely result in some highway closures and near impossible travel into the mountains. The model shown below doesn't give Denver major amounts, but look at Boulder. Can you imagine 46" of snow? Wow. Even parts of Nebraska will get heavy amounts before it's all over.
 
 Have a great day. Enjoy the rain.

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