November coming in cold - just may be the beginning

October is wrapping up on a windy and cool note, but the month as a whole was warmer than normal with no snowfall. This will be the first time in over 3 years there was no snow in October for Kansas. 

 

Here's a look at the October temperatures (compared to normal):

Halloween on Sunday (although chillier) won't be anything historic for Kansas. In 2020, we had snow and a major hard freeze leading up to Halloween, but by the holiday itself, temperatures had started to warm back up. Here's a look at some past Halloween data:

November outlook:

First, a reminder of how the month normally goes. We start with normal highs in the mid 60s and 30 days later, the normal drops to 51°.

All signs point toward a good batch of cold air coming south. This should essentially lead to the first hard freeze for the entire area at some point during the week (right now, looking at Thursday morning). If skies clear and winds go calm, it would be likely that we'll see 20s in the morning. 

There is much less certainly surrounding precipitation and the type - will it be some light rain or will snowflakes show in Kansas? We are not picking up on a big storm but the setup may favor a light rain/snow mix for northern Kansas over the course of a few days. Some of it will show up Monday, and there could be some other chances Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Most, if not all of the state will be cloudy with some drizzle or a few rain showers. 

November (as a whole) looks colder than normal:

This time of year, we start looking at the Arctic Oscillation for a prediction that goes beyond what you see on apps and TV. A trend toward "negative" suggests (but doesn't always guarantee) colder stretches ahead.  It is showing a trend toward negative, and goes way down just prior to Thanksgiving. It doesn't mean we will have a record cold Thanksgiving this year, but what you could take away from looking at the chart below is that our warm days in November might be really limited. At a time when natural gas and propane prices are high, we may be spending more on heating down the road.

Precipitation:

Most likely, near normal for a good portion of the Plains. Remember, "normal" moisture in November isn't very much (in most of the state, it's less than .150"). There's still plenty of active weather that will arrive from the West coast, but can we get the moisture to fall in western Kansas? It's been a tall order as of late, so we will see how November goes. 

Have a great day / Happy Halloween!

Severe storms, MAJOR weather whiplash, and snow

Here we are, exactly two weeks removed from the last October severe weather event and preparing for another round. This setup is slightly different in a couple of ways. 

• Storms will develop farther east (mainly Dodge to Hays line and east)
• Tornado threat isn't as high for much of the area heading into the overnight
• Storms should be a little quicker to move east

Here's the threat map for the evening-nighttime ahead. 

Hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts around or just above 70 mph are possible. The tornado window should be brief (likely just a few hours) for areas just east of Dodge City and maybe into parts of central Kansas. However, as the atmosphere continues to cools in the wake of sunset and the storms form into a line, potential of tornadoes should decrease quickly with an ongoing wind threat into the night.

8pm

 

1:30am 

One of the ingredients in the severe setup is the surge in humidity coming north. When the numbers get above 60, that's more than enough moisture to develop severe storms. Those are dew point temperatures - and 60 is high in springtime, much less the end of October. 

This severe weather in the Plains is being generated by the "bomb" cyclone that hit the West and produced major, record rainfall and snows. It's not a made-up term - there is such thing as a bomb cyclone. It is a low pressure system that must have its air pressure drop 24 millibars in 24 hours. This storm did accomplish that and is the reason for significant rains and snows in the inner mountain West. 

And it plays into a BIG weather whiplash for Sacramento, CA. It was just last week we reported on the longest dry spell (212 days) for the city, and then it gets a record 24 hour rain amount. More evidence that one extreme really does follow another. 

Halloween changes: A cold front will come through early Halloween morning. Temperatures will be turning much chillier by the end of the weekend. 

Our severe threat fades quickly and we begin to focus on cold, a hard freeze, and the likelihood of our first snow coming to Kansas next week. November is going to get started with colder than normal weather and it's likely to end the growing season in much of the state. A weak weather system will bring chances for rain and snow showers to the Plains. It's early to speculate on accumulations, but there may end up being some light amounts in parts of western Kansas. We will start looking at this in more details very soon, but in the meantime, plan for colder weather next week.

 

Have a great day.

Another October severe weather event

More severe weather is on track to hit the Plains as October continues to be an active month for our area. The setup for Sunday will mostly be east of Kansas, but it does offer up a chance for hail, high winds, and maybe a few tornadoes. Right on the heels of Sunday is a setup Tuesday that may bring the risk of hail, wind, and a few tornadoes back to the Plains states. 

We are already at 85 tornadoes so far in October (for the US), and with at least two more busy days ahead, that number will most likely climb.

Most of the rough weather Sunday will form in Missouri and Iowa before pushing farther east. 

The Tuesday setup will favor Kansas and Oklahoma, with parts of Nebraska and Texas in play as well.

 

Is this unusual? We've mentioned it a few times on the air, but a second peak of severe weather tends to happen in fall as the upper level winds (jet stream) get stronger. The jet stream is driven by temperature contrasts, so as locations north of us get colder, the jet stream strengthens. And the Gulf of Mexico is still very warm right now with water temperatures about 80. That warm water can contribute some very high octane humidity for stronger storms in our area. We will see how it all comes together, but don't be surprised to hear us discussing more severe weather Tuesday.

Do you remember this from a year ago? It snowed at the end of October (26th/27th):

This was a photo from Shelly in Wellington showing the ice in Sumner county. Wichita had over an inch of snow and temperatures dropped well below freezing to quickly end the growing season statewide. The map below shows how widespread the snow ended up being across the Rockies and out into the Plains. Northwest Kansas had around 2-4 inches of snow just prior to Halloween. It has snowed the last 3 years in October. It doesn't look like it will happen in 2021.

When will it turn colder here?

Stay tuned...

Active days ahead - two storms to watch

October will wind down with a series of low pressure systems tracking in from the west. You can see the different storms lined up out across the Pacific, with one just off the Pacific Northwest and another one in the Bering Sea. Over the next week, we will have at least two different features coming through our area with chances for rain and some thunderstorms.

Consider for a moment:

NO measurable rainfall. That does set a record, and finally ends with much needed rain coming across the West. The models are consistent in heavy rains falling where fires have been a problem. This is going to create mudslides and flooding, but these areas are in such dire need that even some runoff to fill reservoirs and streams has to be great news. 

Kansas will have some rain early Saturday (mainly southeast and east central). This stuff is going to be isolated and forms on a warm front that will be moving north. Another chance for some rain comes Saturday night north of I-70 (north of Salina and on toward KC).

The first low pressure tracking through the area will come Sunday. Scattered rains are coming, but this doesn't look like it will drop that much measurable moisture. In many cases, it will be under. 25" and southwest Kansas may get missed entirely.

A second, more robust storm emerges from the west Tuesday night/Wednesday. This one might be able to produce rains on a more widespread scale, and if it slows down a bit (which is something we are looking at), rain will carry over into Wednesday. We don't foresee any snow with the rain (that will be limited to Colorado and the Rockies) and the amounts of rain we get should be up to .50" - doubtful that it would be much more. 

You might recall last year in late October, one of the storms dropped measurable snow. At this time, that seems VERY unlikely to happen in our current setup, given that the coldest air is stuck farther north and won't be arriving until next month.

Early forecast to Halloween - doesn't look scary at all. A cold front may be arriving early in the day, but temperatures don't look too bad for kids getting out to trick-or-treat.

Have a great day.

Latest tornado count & pattern change brings calmer weather

Maybe it felt like May earlier this week with us talking so much about severe weather, tornadoes, hail, wind, etc. I guess the good news with October severe weather is that it's usually "one and done", not multiple days of bad weather like we can have in the spring. 

Damage assessment crews from Goodland discovered the Sharon Springs tornado was EF0 with peak winds of about 85 mph. Other tornadoes were reported in Gray, Ford, Hodgeman, and Edwards counties, but damage was pretty minimal. 

As the final EF ratings come in, here's another look at the Enhanced Fujita Scale to break down the wind speeds. We still have not had an EF5 since Greensburg back in 2007. Just incredible. 

Latest United States tornado count - still trending below the average:

Even though we've seen an uptick in the tornadoes over the past week, we are still trending lower than the average at this point of the year. And it would seem unlikely to change much considering much of the country is now cooling down with fall taking hold.

Next couple of weeks for Kansas and the Plains: It does appear that the next couple of weeks may turn out drier for much of the central US. I think we are going to see a low pressure system up near the Great Lakes next week that may be circulating some cool air around it. If that actually happens, we will have some very nice fall weather, BUT it will also be a dry setup. I don't expect to see that much rain between now and closer to Halloween.

Enjoy the fantastic weather coming up for Kansas. Aside from some occasional breezy or windy days, we have some wonderful weather ahead. 

Severe weather threats - frost looming late week

Feels a little weird to be ramping up our severe weather discussion in the middle of October. However, fall is a transition season with cold of winter starting to surge south and still plenty of warm air left across the central and southern Plains. Jet stream winds (20,000-30,000 feet) are also getting much stronger. The National Weather Service in Wichita reminded us last week of the EF2/EF3 tornadoes that hit in Saline county on October 6, 2016. 

Chances are low, but there is a .10% chance of tornadoes (within 25 miles of a point - on average) in the Plains for mid-October.

Hail/wind probabilities are slightly higher, although still low on average.

Fall is considered "second season" for severe weather and it has already been a busy week. Oklahoma had rough weather Sunday, followed by Chicago Monday evening. 

Now, this is the latest risk map heading into the evening/overnight. Biggest concern is timing with severe weather threats continuing into the night. As the storms move along, the most widespread concern will be wind gusts above 60-70 mph. This system is quite strong AND the winds aloft are howling coming in from the west. 

Mid-afternoon rain/thunder - Non severe:

The higher humidity coming into Kansas will set off some rain along and east of I-135 (no hail or damaging wind expected)

5pm-7pm: Severe weather starting to develop across the west and storms will move northeast.

7pm-10pm: Most of the action will be west of a Phillipsburg to Russell to Great Bend line. 

10pm-Midnight: Storms getting into central Kansas during this time

12am-3am: Leading edge will be approaching a Salina to Hutch to Wichita line

3am-6am: Severe threat continues east into the Flint Hills - moving out quickly

Late week frost potential: this is primarily for western Kansas an in particular, the northwest. I think Thursday and Friday morning will have lows dipping down into the 30-35° range. 

Saturday morning frost: Something to keep an eye on as we get to the start of the weekend. Another cool blast coming down the pike could send us down into the 30s for a good chunk of the state (including areas farther east). We will keep you posted on this because it may depend on how strong the wind are for Saturday morning. 

Have a great day and let's hope the storms roll through with good rain and minimal damage.

Two systems on the way; severe weather possibilities

Some unusual October heat will setup for the Plains to finish off the week, and records may fall on Saturday. Here's a quick rundown of the Friday/Saturday records - keeping in mind that most of the Friday records will likely not be reached even though it will be hot.

October 90° weather isn't that unheard of in Kansas. It seems like every year we have at least one day where temperatures get this hot. A record that will NOT be threatened is "latest 90 of the year". See the stats below:

Our next cold front and rain:

This should be coming in Sunday evening (after 5 or 6pm). We've seen quite a bit of back and forth in the computer data (first it looked "likely" for rain, then it didn't look so promising). Now, the chances are increasing once again and I would expect the weekend will end with some rain - except in northwest and north central Kansas (unless the track of the system shifts more north) 

The likelihood of severe weather in Kansas for Sunday is LOW. However, farther south, some storms may produce quarter size hail and gusty winds. Unless the overall setup shifts farther north, which doesn't appear that likely, I wouldn't be too concerned about Sunday evening severe weather.

Very large storm tracking into the Plains next week:

The system coming in for our 2nd full week of October looks much stronger and will have more far reaching impacts. First, take a look at the map for Tuesday and notice the snow arriving in the Rockies. Snow levels may be down around 8,000 feet and there's potential of more than a foot of accumulation. This will be great news for ski resorts. 

Severe Threat next week: Meanwhile, in the Plains, it will be a risk of thunderstorms and maybe severe weather. Specifics are unclear this many days out, but there's going to be a lot of wind in the atmosphere and plenty of humidity. What might be the limiting factor - the temperatures. Highs in the 70s might keep the instability down a bit and keep us from having an outbreak of rough weather. 

Frost or freeze? It's getting to be that time of year where we would expect our first frost. There will be some areas of western Kansas that may get their first frost around Thursday (Oct. 14) if things line up the way we are thinking. A hard freeze on a statewide scale is not showing up in the models yet, and probably won't for awhile. The image below shows average fall frost, so it wouldn't be unusual for western Kansas to have a chance at it next week.