Severe storms, MAJOR weather whiplash, and snow

Here we are, exactly two weeks removed from the last October severe weather event and preparing for another round. This setup is slightly different in a couple of ways. 

• Storms will develop farther east (mainly Dodge to Hays line and east)
• Tornado threat isn't as high for much of the area heading into the overnight
• Storms should be a little quicker to move east

Here's the threat map for the evening-nighttime ahead. 

Hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts around or just above 70 mph are possible. The tornado window should be brief (likely just a few hours) for areas just east of Dodge City and maybe into parts of central Kansas. However, as the atmosphere continues to cools in the wake of sunset and the storms form into a line, potential of tornadoes should decrease quickly with an ongoing wind threat into the night.

8pm

 

1:30am 

One of the ingredients in the severe setup is the surge in humidity coming north. When the numbers get above 60, that's more than enough moisture to develop severe storms. Those are dew point temperatures - and 60 is high in springtime, much less the end of October. 

This severe weather in the Plains is being generated by the "bomb" cyclone that hit the West and produced major, record rainfall and snows. It's not a made-up term - there is such thing as a bomb cyclone. It is a low pressure system that must have its air pressure drop 24 millibars in 24 hours. This storm did accomplish that and is the reason for significant rains and snows in the inner mountain West. 

And it plays into a BIG weather whiplash for Sacramento, CA. It was just last week we reported on the longest dry spell (212 days) for the city, and then it gets a record 24 hour rain amount. More evidence that one extreme really does follow another. 

Halloween changes: A cold front will come through early Halloween morning. Temperatures will be turning much chillier by the end of the weekend. 

Our severe threat fades quickly and we begin to focus on cold, a hard freeze, and the likelihood of our first snow coming to Kansas next week. November is going to get started with colder than normal weather and it's likely to end the growing season in much of the state. A weak weather system will bring chances for rain and snow showers to the Plains. It's early to speculate on accumulations, but there may end up being some light amounts in parts of western Kansas. We will start looking at this in more details very soon, but in the meantime, plan for colder weather next week.

 

Have a great day.