Two systems on the way; severe weather possibilities

Some unusual October heat will setup for the Plains to finish off the week, and records may fall on Saturday. Here's a quick rundown of the Friday/Saturday records - keeping in mind that most of the Friday records will likely not be reached even though it will be hot.

October 90° weather isn't that unheard of in Kansas. It seems like every year we have at least one day where temperatures get this hot. A record that will NOT be threatened is "latest 90 of the year". See the stats below:

Our next cold front and rain:

This should be coming in Sunday evening (after 5 or 6pm). We've seen quite a bit of back and forth in the computer data (first it looked "likely" for rain, then it didn't look so promising). Now, the chances are increasing once again and I would expect the weekend will end with some rain - except in northwest and north central Kansas (unless the track of the system shifts more north) 

The likelihood of severe weather in Kansas for Sunday is LOW. However, farther south, some storms may produce quarter size hail and gusty winds. Unless the overall setup shifts farther north, which doesn't appear that likely, I wouldn't be too concerned about Sunday evening severe weather.

Very large storm tracking into the Plains next week:

The system coming in for our 2nd full week of October looks much stronger and will have more far reaching impacts. First, take a look at the map for Tuesday and notice the snow arriving in the Rockies. Snow levels may be down around 8,000 feet and there's potential of more than a foot of accumulation. This will be great news for ski resorts. 

Severe Threat next week: Meanwhile, in the Plains, it will be a risk of thunderstorms and maybe severe weather. Specifics are unclear this many days out, but there's going to be a lot of wind in the atmosphere and plenty of humidity. What might be the limiting factor - the temperatures. Highs in the 70s might keep the instability down a bit and keep us from having an outbreak of rough weather. 

Frost or freeze? It's getting to be that time of year where we would expect our first frost. There will be some areas of western Kansas that may get their first frost around Thursday (Oct. 14) if things line up the way we are thinking. A hard freeze on a statewide scale is not showing up in the models yet, and probably won't for awhile. The image below shows average fall frost, so it wouldn't be unusual for western Kansas to have a chance at it next week.