More severe weather is on track to hit the Plains as October continues to be an active month for our area. The setup for Sunday will mostly be east of Kansas, but it does offer up a chance for hail, high winds, and maybe a few tornadoes. Right on the heels of Sunday is a setup Tuesday that may bring the risk of hail, wind, and a few tornadoes back to the Plains states.
We are already at 85 tornadoes so far in October (for the US), and with at least two more busy days ahead, that number will most likely climb.
Most of the rough weather Sunday will form in Missouri and Iowa before pushing farther east.
The Tuesday setup will favor Kansas and Oklahoma, with parts of Nebraska and Texas in play as well.
Is this unusual? We've mentioned it a few times on the air, but a second peak of severe weather tends to happen in fall as the upper level winds (jet stream) get stronger. The jet stream is driven by temperature contrasts, so as locations north of us get colder, the jet stream strengthens. And the Gulf of Mexico is still very warm right now with water temperatures about 80. That warm water can contribute some very high octane humidity for stronger storms in our area. We will see how it all comes together, but don't be surprised to hear us discussing more severe weather Tuesday.
Do you remember this from a year ago? It snowed at the end of October (26th/27th):
This was a photo from Shelly in Wellington showing the ice in Sumner county. Wichita had over an inch of snow and temperatures dropped well below freezing to quickly end the growing season statewide. The map below shows how widespread the snow ended up being across the Rockies and out into the Plains. Northwest Kansas had around 2-4 inches of snow just prior to Halloween. It has snowed the last 3 years in October. It doesn't look like it will happen in 2021.
When will it turn colder here?
Stay tuned...
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