Severe weather threats - frost looming late week

Feels a little weird to be ramping up our severe weather discussion in the middle of October. However, fall is a transition season with cold of winter starting to surge south and still plenty of warm air left across the central and southern Plains. Jet stream winds (20,000-30,000 feet) are also getting much stronger. The National Weather Service in Wichita reminded us last week of the EF2/EF3 tornadoes that hit in Saline county on October 6, 2016. 

Chances are low, but there is a .10% chance of tornadoes (within 25 miles of a point - on average) in the Plains for mid-October.

Hail/wind probabilities are slightly higher, although still low on average.

Fall is considered "second season" for severe weather and it has already been a busy week. Oklahoma had rough weather Sunday, followed by Chicago Monday evening. 

Now, this is the latest risk map heading into the evening/overnight. Biggest concern is timing with severe weather threats continuing into the night. As the storms move along, the most widespread concern will be wind gusts above 60-70 mph. This system is quite strong AND the winds aloft are howling coming in from the west. 

Mid-afternoon rain/thunder - Non severe:

The higher humidity coming into Kansas will set off some rain along and east of I-135 (no hail or damaging wind expected)

5pm-7pm: Severe weather starting to develop across the west and storms will move northeast.

7pm-10pm: Most of the action will be west of a Phillipsburg to Russell to Great Bend line. 

10pm-Midnight: Storms getting into central Kansas during this time

12am-3am: Leading edge will be approaching a Salina to Hutch to Wichita line

3am-6am: Severe threat continues east into the Flint Hills - moving out quickly

Late week frost potential: this is primarily for western Kansas an in particular, the northwest. I think Thursday and Friday morning will have lows dipping down into the 30-35° range. 

Saturday morning frost: Something to keep an eye on as we get to the start of the weekend. Another cool blast coming down the pike could send us down into the 30s for a good chunk of the state (including areas farther east). We will keep you posted on this because it may depend on how strong the wind are for Saturday morning. 

Have a great day and let's hope the storms roll through with good rain and minimal damage.