2022 in review - January outlook

Another year coming to a close and I'm guessing some of you are ready for some different weather. This year has been marked by terrible (and what feels like never ending) drought, major heat waves, and the extreme fire danger, and the tornado on April 29 (what would be known as the Andover tornado). 

Since drought was such a big topic, here's how the year started off - first map released on January 4th:

Over 70% of the state was in some degree of drought, with about 52% in moderate drought. 

The last map released on Thursday (Dec. 29) was showing 100% in drought, with 37% at the highest classification (exceptional)

Some of the main reporting stations we track looked like this for 2022:

Dodge City: (how about wrapping up the year over 10 inches below average on rain) and 33 days this summer with 100° temperatures

Goodland: (below average by about 8 inches for moisture - there were 17 days of 100° temps)

Wichita: (rainfall fell short of average and there were 27 days of 100°)

Salina: (also below average on rain and had 22 days of 100°)

Andover tornado: rated EF-3 - not necessarily your classic radar signature. It was a day well forecast to have some potential of tornadoes, but it took all afternoon and evening before this cell, that went right over Wichita, dropped the tornado just south of Andover. Since the storm didn't have much rain wrapped around it, it was quite visible from 5-10 miles away. 

January outlook:

The month is going to start warm, and even though our weather pattern will likely remain active, the chances of big snows in Kansas for the first half of the month are low. We are in the warmer phases of the weather setup for now. Average highs are in the low 40s for early January, and the next few weeks should mainly be 40s and 50s. 

One models shows the cold across the west, northern and central Plains. I think it has the right idea for mid to late January, but it probably isn't cold enough. 

The other model, shown below, also indicates cold across the west and central US. In the most recent cases of the bitter cold that hit (just prior to Christmas), none of the data did a very good job of handling the extreme temperatures. Let's see if this lines up for later in the month. Until then, it should continue to be near or above avearge.

And January isn't a very wet month at all. In fact, for much of the state it tends to be the driest month of the year. Having "above" average moisture won't mean much, but some of the active weather early in January may get us close to our typical monthly precip totals. I don't expect January will have heavy snow amounts for Kansas. 

Happy New Year. I look forward to covering another year of weather with you both here and on KWCH.

Active pattern ahead with the first storm of 2023

Hope you had a great Christmas and enjoyed the snow (if you were dreaming of a white Christmas this year). They tend to be rather elusive for Kansas, and in most years there's only about a 10-15% chance it actually works out for us.

We keep hearing about the "atmospheric river" impacting the western US. For lack of better description, think of it as a firehose of moisture aimed right at the west, and one system after another bring welcome moisture to many drought-stricken areas. 

You won't erase the impact with one storm, but a healthy series of them throughout the winter months would sure be nice. Some of that moisture comes into Kansas for Thursday, which we are referring to as "system 1".

Thursday:

This is a rain/snow mix that will come through western Kansas. While it's not a big storm, given the duration of snowfall, the rate at which it may come down, and available moisture, we could easily get some 1-3" amounts. I think most temperatures will be above 32°, so some snow might melt, but not fast enough to prevent accumulations. This should end by early Thursday evening. Actual precipitation would be somewhere in the T-.25" when its over.

Storm system #2:

This will likely be a more substantial event with a better connection to the Gulf of Mexico. The track also seems favorable to hook up with the higher humidity and do something meaningful for the Plains. If the track moves farther north, there's less snow and potentially, less rain for us. If the track ends up farther south, there will be more snow. As much as some of you don't want snow, it could have some crucial moisture for us given that temperatures will be closer to freezing. A setup like this would favor a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, and if we don't have a tremendous amount of wind, which I don't think we will, it might cover more of the wheat fields. 

System #3:

This one may come through the Plains later next week (or closer to the first weekend of the new year). It's too far out to know many details, but we won't be in bitter cold air at that time, so I would expect that if we were to get moisture off the system, it could be a rain/snow mix, just depending on the track. 

Coldest since... and there's relief in sight already

We keep hearing about how cold this air will be, and there's no arguing it will be some of the coldest one would expect for Kansas. The chance that highs will stay below zero is not a routine occurrence around here, but we may see that Thursday (especially for northern Kansas).

The last time Goodland had a high below zero: 

• February 14, 2021: -1°

Wichita hasn't had a high temperature below zero since:

• December 24, 1983: -2°

Looking back at some very cold Decembers - 1989 and 1983 stand out. 

1989 looked like this:

1983:

Safe to say for Kansas, this cold snap is only the coldest since February 2021. We had nearly TWO weeks that stayed below freezing, with some of the coldest days occurring Feb. 14-16. This cold snap won't be nearly as long.

What's expected out of the midweek system:

This will not be a big snow maker for Kansas given a couple of factors. 

• System approaches from the northwest - limited moisture and not a good connection to Gulf of Mexico
• Moving quickly - the snow may fall for about 8-10 hours, but then it pushes on to the east. 

That means, if the forecast holds, much of the state still appears to be in the running for a White Christmas (even if most of the snow is in the ditch, or piled up alongside the house):

We will see if record lows are a reality on Friday. Right now, most of them might be just out of reach. However, two places in particular that stand a chance would be Goodland and Garden City. Here's a look at what the current records are, and just how cold we'd need to be in order to make history.

Look at the forecast for next week - much milder air will spread back across the west and get into Kansas (maybe as early as Christmas Day). Safe to say, the pattern looks much different to wrap up 2022 and get us into the new year. It also looks dry for most of the week too.

Thoughts on snow for next week

Just wanted to put a couple of quick notes out before we get into the heart of Christmas week, but we are still on track for major cold - potentially record setting, and some snow. I'm thinking below freezing weather may set in for much of the area Tuesday, and it may stay there until after the holiday. It could easily be a full week of sub-freezing temperatures. Wednesday is the one day still in question because the true, Arctic air may not be here just yet. 

The heart of the cold may not take over until the second half of next week, but just like we did in February 2021, the freezing line goes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and much of the US is in the deep freeze. Even if you are going south for Christmas, it will likely be cold there too. 

Unless there's some unforeseen change in the data, I would NOT expect any heavy snow prior to Santa's arrival. Given just how cold it will be, there won't be much moisture content. This would likely be a powdery snow that blows around and ends up not being all that beneficial in fighting drought. 

Here's a preview of early Thursday - plenty of blue on the map, indicating the light snow will start north of Kansas and then spread southeast. It may move through so fast that this batch of snow will be just trace amounts. Remember, we consider it a "white" Christmas when we have at least 1" of snow on the ground.

Keep an eye on Friday/Saturday:

Some of the latest models are dragging more snow across the Rockies and down into the Plains, which may provide more chances of snow than what we will get on Thursday. This still doesn't look like a big winter system, but opportunities to reach 1" and have a white Christmas may actually hinge on what this setup does Fri/Sat. If you have travel plans that take you west into Colorado or on the high Plains, it's a safe expectation there will be snow and some slicks spots may show up on I-70 and I-80.

Regardless of timing and setup, the air will be so cold that we would need 20-25 inches of snow to get 1" of actual water. And that's not happening. 

Temperatures (compared to average) for Christmas Day:

Plenty of questions about how long this cold will last. Just after Christmas, I would expect a moderating trend. It's not likely to be 70° weather, but we should see a return to more typical December weather, which would be highs in the 40s and 50s. A two-week major cold snap looks unlikely here. 

Temperatures (the week after Christmas) - should recover to near average - which would be highs near 40.

Have a great day.

Talk of White Christmas & trouble brewing if the cold verifies

I'm guessing you've heard the song 15 times or more this holiday season already, but what is traditionally a low chance for Kansas seems to be picking up a little steam. When we issued our winter forecast last week, we suggested the chances looked much better this year compared to other seasons. What might surprise you - or having you dreaming of spring or summer instead - is just how cold things may get in just over a week. 

When was the last white Christmas for Kansas? We typically define it by having 1 inch of snow on the ground that morning, OR it could fall on Christmas Day. Following that definition, take a look:

How about the number of white Christmas' since 2000:

The average is a little higher for northwest Kansas where more snow tends to fall in a winter season. 

Latest look at Christmas week:

We are starting to see a large high pressure "block" up near Greenland, which may end up forcing a TON of Arctic air south later next week. This kind of setup is similar to what happened in February 2021 when the deep freeze went all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Remember hearing about Texas, the power outages, the frozen pipes, etc. I know we struggled to keep water lines thawed out here, as low temperatures fell to -15 to -25. The pictures below are from various Kansans who had trouble with frozen pipes. The picture on the left shows what happens when it gets so cold that even a dripping faucet can cause a stalagmite (of ice).  😉

Confidence is high that we will have this bitterly cold air coming into our area. The timing is still a little bit questionable. Will it arrive Wednesday, or later in the week? And will it come with snow? That's what we will work to pin down. 

Again, a white Christmas is NOT 100% set just yet. We think the setup will favor light snow for a few days at the end of next week, but there's still some uncertainty that we are working through. If it gets as cold as we are forecasting, it would definitely be a "dry" snow and not one that would be beneficial for drought improvement. 

And just look at how much of the country may be experience a COLD holiday this year. We might threaten some records if these maps verify. Be sure to check back.

Drought update as a big system moves this way

The latest drought map out this week didn't change very much and doesn't surprise any of us. Here are the specifics: 

• 36% in exceptional
• 57% in extreme
• 69% in severe

Here's the close up of Kansas:

And now looking at a wider perspective:

The western part of the country is getting some big help from heavy mountain snows. There's been some slight improvements, but we have to keep this going throughout the winter to make a difference. Last year, we saw this happen early on, and then the snow just shut down part way through the season.

Big system rolling in:

There's a good connection to the Gulf of Mexico as we get into Monday. Look at the higher humidity surging northward on wind gusts that will be 30+. In December, getting dew points above 50 can be a challenge, but we accomplish that with ease Monday afternoon/evening. We will have more than enough humidity to translate that into some nice rain. 

And there will be thunderstorms too. You'll even be hearing about severe weather in the South coming up Tuesday. Hail, winds, and a few tornadoes will likely show in Louisiana and Mississippi. 

Rainfall potential: It sure looks like central and eastern Kansas could be in the running for at least .50" or more. Trying to figure out the western fringe is difficult until we get a bit closer, but we aren't going to get nearly as much for areas west of Dodge City and west of Hays. 

Snow: several inches will fall on the High Plains of Nebraska, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. White-out conditions can be expected NORTH of Kansas - not likely around here. I don't think we will get very much snow in the northwest, but a few inches at this time seems reasonable.

Here comes the COLD! We've hinted at this on air and in our winter forecast, but the second half of this month continues to look rather chilly. And it will continue maybe through New Years and beyond. Get ready. 

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Winter forecast 2022-23

We are closing in on the first day of winter - December 21st (at 3:48PM to be exact). Drought has been an ongoing problem for months and we just went through one of the driest stretches of weather on record for many areas of the state. Will this upcoming season be any different or offer any relief. 

Right off the bat, we have to acknowledge that some parts of the state have already seen snow. Here's what we've seen so far - even though it's not much:

• Dodge City: 1.9"
• Goodland: .7"
• Wichita: .4"

La Niña: 

It's the third winter in a row that this phenomenon has been something to consider. Just as a refresher since we don't cover it all the time, this is the colder than average water in the Pacific near the Equator. The water is running about 1°C below average and while it isn't much, it has an impact and is taken into consider here. Straight out of a textbook, La Niña would favor much colder weather over the northern tier of the US, with warmer weather across the south. Signals aren't clear when it comes to precipitation for winter La Niña in Kansas, so we have to look elsewhere. 

It's important to know that La Niña is starting to weaken and should continue to do so through the remainder of winter. It's possible by spring, we could be out of it.

If we go back to the winter of 1975/76 (the end of a 3rd year La Niña), Wichita snowfall was below average (just 7" for the season), but was average in Goodland (34.9")

The winter of 2000/01 (another triple La Niña ending) had low snowfall again for Wichita (9.1") with Goodland at 33.5"

So why don't we just use that as a predictor for this winter? There are some other factors.

Arctic Oscillation: 

This is likely to be negative for a good part of the season, opening us up to more bitter cold off and on through the season. It's VERY negative now, and we are about to see some very cold air move this way. When it swings back to the positive side, most of the Arctic air remains trapped to the north.

What to watch for: A blocking "high" setting up near Greenland and extreme northern Canada may force a lot of cold air down across the lower 48. I think this is something that could happen leading up to Christmas, so be on the lookout for much colder air as we continue to get closer to the holiday.

 

There's also a part of the pattern that may favor bitter cold across the upper Midwest and around the Great Lakes area. This kind of setup will leave Kansas high and dry - with perhaps weeks of uneventful weather at all. Much of the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be shunted away and any cold fronts coming through won't have much success in producing precipitation. 

Our hope of rain and snow (as it usually does this time of year) will reside with a setup that favors strong systems coming out of the Southwest. We had one back in early November that provided some welcome and widespread rains to the central US. Still another system came in after Thanksgiving and dropped more rain (central and east). If these setups come back around in February and March, that may be when we get our heaviest snows. 

Key takeaways:

Winter forecast snowfall: