Thoughts on snow for next week

Just wanted to put a couple of quick notes out before we get into the heart of Christmas week, but we are still on track for major cold - potentially record setting, and some snow. I'm thinking below freezing weather may set in for much of the area Tuesday, and it may stay there until after the holiday. It could easily be a full week of sub-freezing temperatures. Wednesday is the one day still in question because the true, Arctic air may not be here just yet. 

The heart of the cold may not take over until the second half of next week, but just like we did in February 2021, the freezing line goes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and much of the US is in the deep freeze. Even if you are going south for Christmas, it will likely be cold there too. 

Unless there's some unforeseen change in the data, I would NOT expect any heavy snow prior to Santa's arrival. Given just how cold it will be, there won't be much moisture content. This would likely be a powdery snow that blows around and ends up not being all that beneficial in fighting drought. 

Here's a preview of early Thursday - plenty of blue on the map, indicating the light snow will start north of Kansas and then spread southeast. It may move through so fast that this batch of snow will be just trace amounts. Remember, we consider it a "white" Christmas when we have at least 1" of snow on the ground.

Keep an eye on Friday/Saturday:

Some of the latest models are dragging more snow across the Rockies and down into the Plains, which may provide more chances of snow than what we will get on Thursday. This still doesn't look like a big winter system, but opportunities to reach 1" and have a white Christmas may actually hinge on what this setup does Fri/Sat. If you have travel plans that take you west into Colorado or on the high Plains, it's a safe expectation there will be snow and some slicks spots may show up on I-70 and I-80.

Regardless of timing and setup, the air will be so cold that we would need 20-25 inches of snow to get 1" of actual water. And that's not happening. 

Temperatures (compared to average) for Christmas Day:

Plenty of questions about how long this cold will last. Just after Christmas, I would expect a moderating trend. It's not likely to be 70° weather, but we should see a return to more typical December weather, which would be highs in the 40s and 50s. A two-week major cold snap looks unlikely here. 

Temperatures (the week after Christmas) - should recover to near average - which would be highs near 40.

Have a great day.