Talk of White Christmas & trouble brewing if the cold verifies

I'm guessing you've heard the song 15 times or more this holiday season already, but what is traditionally a low chance for Kansas seems to be picking up a little steam. When we issued our winter forecast last week, we suggested the chances looked much better this year compared to other seasons. What might surprise you - or having you dreaming of spring or summer instead - is just how cold things may get in just over a week. 

When was the last white Christmas for Kansas? We typically define it by having 1 inch of snow on the ground that morning, OR it could fall on Christmas Day. Following that definition, take a look:

How about the number of white Christmas' since 2000:

The average is a little higher for northwest Kansas where more snow tends to fall in a winter season. 

Latest look at Christmas week:

We are starting to see a large high pressure "block" up near Greenland, which may end up forcing a TON of Arctic air south later next week. This kind of setup is similar to what happened in February 2021 when the deep freeze went all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Remember hearing about Texas, the power outages, the frozen pipes, etc. I know we struggled to keep water lines thawed out here, as low temperatures fell to -15 to -25. The pictures below are from various Kansans who had trouble with frozen pipes. The picture on the left shows what happens when it gets so cold that even a dripping faucet can cause a stalagmite (of ice).  😉

Confidence is high that we will have this bitterly cold air coming into our area. The timing is still a little bit questionable. Will it arrive Wednesday, or later in the week? And will it come with snow? That's what we will work to pin down. 

Again, a white Christmas is NOT 100% set just yet. We think the setup will favor light snow for a few days at the end of next week, but there's still some uncertainty that we are working through. If it gets as cold as we are forecasting, it would definitely be a "dry" snow and not one that would be beneficial for drought improvement. 

And just look at how much of the country may be experience a COLD holiday this year. We might threaten some records if these maps verify. Be sure to check back.