Active pattern ahead with the first storm of 2023

Hope you had a great Christmas and enjoyed the snow (if you were dreaming of a white Christmas this year). They tend to be rather elusive for Kansas, and in most years there's only about a 10-15% chance it actually works out for us.

We keep hearing about the "atmospheric river" impacting the western US. For lack of better description, think of it as a firehose of moisture aimed right at the west, and one system after another bring welcome moisture to many drought-stricken areas. 

You won't erase the impact with one storm, but a healthy series of them throughout the winter months would sure be nice. Some of that moisture comes into Kansas for Thursday, which we are referring to as "system 1".

Thursday:

This is a rain/snow mix that will come through western Kansas. While it's not a big storm, given the duration of snowfall, the rate at which it may come down, and available moisture, we could easily get some 1-3" amounts. I think most temperatures will be above 32°, so some snow might melt, but not fast enough to prevent accumulations. This should end by early Thursday evening. Actual precipitation would be somewhere in the T-.25" when its over.

Storm system #2:

This will likely be a more substantial event with a better connection to the Gulf of Mexico. The track also seems favorable to hook up with the higher humidity and do something meaningful for the Plains. If the track moves farther north, there's less snow and potentially, less rain for us. If the track ends up farther south, there will be more snow. As much as some of you don't want snow, it could have some crucial moisture for us given that temperatures will be closer to freezing. A setup like this would favor a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio, and if we don't have a tremendous amount of wind, which I don't think we will, it might cover more of the wheat fields. 

System #3:

This one may come through the Plains later next week (or closer to the first weekend of the new year). It's too far out to know many details, but we won't be in bitter cold air at that time, so I would expect that if we were to get moisture off the system, it could be a rain/snow mix, just depending on the track.