We are closing in on the first day of winter - December 21st (at 3:48PM to be exact). Drought has been an ongoing problem for months and we just went through one of the driest stretches of weather on record for many areas of the state. Will this upcoming season be any different or offer any relief.
Right off the bat, we have to acknowledge that some parts of the state have already seen snow. Here's what we've seen so far - even though it's not much:
- Dodge City: 1.9"
- Goodland: .7"
- Wichita: .4"
La Niña:
It's the third winter in a row that this phenomenon has been something to consider. Just as a refresher since we don't cover it all the time, this is the colder than average water in the Pacific near the Equator. The water is running about 1°C below average and while it isn't much, it has an impact and is taken into consider here. Straight out of a textbook, La Niña would favor much colder weather over the northern tier of the US, with warmer weather across the south. Signals aren't clear when it comes to precipitation for winter La Niña in Kansas, so we have to look elsewhere. 
It's important to know that La Niña is starting to weaken and should continue to do so through the remainder of winter. It's possible by spring, we could be out of it.
If we go back to the winter of 1975/76 (the end of a 3rd year La Niña), Wichita snowfall was below average (just 7" for the season), but was average in Goodland (34.9")
The winter of 2000/01 (another triple La Niña ending) had low snowfall again for Wichita (9.1") with Goodland at 33.5"
So why don't we just use that as a predictor for this winter? There are some other factors.
Arctic Oscillation:
This is likely to be negative for a good part of the season, opening us up to more bitter cold off and on through the season. It's VERY negative now, and we are about to see some very cold air move this way. When it swings back to the positive side, most of the Arctic air remains trapped to the north.
What to watch for: A blocking "high" setting up near Greenland and extreme northern Canada may force a lot of cold air down across the lower 48. I think this is something that could happen leading up to Christmas, so be on the lookout for much colder air as we continue to get closer to the holiday.
There's also a part of the pattern that may favor bitter cold across the upper Midwest and around the Great Lakes area. This kind of setup will leave Kansas high and dry - with perhaps weeks of uneventful weather at all. Much of the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be shunted away and any cold fronts coming through won't have much success in producing precipitation.
Our hope of rain and snow (as it usually does this time of year) will reside with a setup that favors strong systems coming out of the Southwest. We had one back in early November that provided some welcome and widespread rains to the central US. Still another system came in after Thanksgiving and dropped more rain (central and east). If these setups come back around in February and March, that may be when we get our heaviest snows.
Key takeaways:
Winter forecast snowfall:
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