A potential tropical connection to KS - September outlook

Anybody else ready for different weather? I can honestly say, not since 2011 or 2012 have I felt like we are saying the same thing on the air every evening "tomorrow is hot with no rain". Or lately, it's been "tomorrow is hot, and a stray storm might pop up". It's been pretty monotonous lately. I mean, just look at the last half of August, and the afternoon highs range from 91-98. This is Kansas and not Florida or California, right? 

August Rain (or lack thereof)

Here's a map showing the "rainfall departure from average" - over the last 30 days. It's not good, but you already knew that. The key is off to the right - yellow and orange would be 2-3 inches below normal.

Latest drought map:

And that's why we start September with a map that looks like this:

September rainfall isn't much (on average) - but even if we were to get "normal" rainfall, it won't solve all of our problems with drought. It's a long process and so much water is needed to catch us up. Most of Kansas averages 1.50-3 inches over the month.

First up in September:

Our first interesting setup of the month could involve some tropical moisture as we head toward the start of the Kansas State Fair. What I think will become tropical storm or hurricane "Kay" should move north and crash into Mexico on or around Wednesday, Sep. 7th. See the map below:

If that happens, the mountains in Mexico will tear the storm apart fast. However, the leftover moisture may continue to move north and head toward the southern US at the end of the week. At the same time, a potent system coming from the west will be interacting with the leftover moisture. Is this a setup to get some good rains? It's early and might seem like a long shot - but something to watch. I would expect increasing rain potential next weekend (Sep. 10/11)

September outlook:

Temperatures won't likely be anything out of the ordinary. It sure looks like any cool weather will be balanced by the warm days, so near normal is the safest expectation here. 

Rainfall: 

I do expect this month of September to have more rain than August, but that's not saying much considering much of the state didn't have much at all. Early indications are the next 28-30 days will have near normal rain, which when all is said and done, is not much more than a few inches at best. 

Have a good day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.