Coasting toward a new month - and if you had to take a wild guess at what it will be like for Kansas, you would most likely be right. Let's see, every other month has been below average rain and above average temperatures, and that's the early indicators for this upcoming October (there's more down below).
Here's a quick summary of rainfall for the last 14 days (which pretty much takes into account what we had all month) - even though there was some rain just prior to this period.
And now some numbers since July 1st (for the major reporting stations across the state) - given how spotty rains have been, this may not be good representation for your area.
Into early October - we expect to get squeezed between leftovers from the tropical system "Ian" to the southeast and another weak system coming into the Rockies around the 1st of the month. As you would expect, Ian is too far east to do us any good in the Plains. The western system approaching is to weak for anything more than some hit/miss showers.
What does October look like as a whole?
In a nutshell, it's basically more of the same. Rainfall that might be enough to get some newly planted wheat to sprout - green up some grass, but not enough to make a huge dent in drought conditions. Two time periods where rain chances might ramp up a bit. One will be in the Oct. 10-15, with a second stretch of some active weather about 8-10 days prior to Halloween (very preliminary thoughts, but some of what we are seeing down the road). Models can really struggle this time of year during the seasonal transitional to winter, but it's what we have to analyze at this point.
Here's the first potential active stretch in October:
Followed by this later in the month:
La Nina is still in the driver seat for now. We are seeing a slow weakening of the phenomenon and that should continue down the road, but we know its influence will still be there as winter arrives.
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