First taste of fall & SOME rain - still not near enough yet

The Kansas State Fair is about to start, and I'm told time and time again "it always rains during the fair" - so our predictions of rain this weekend should hold up. At least, it's making me feel more confident. It also feels like one weekend is chilly and the other one you fry. Where is the state fair historian - I know some of you can recall some pretty weird weather during the 10 day event. 

At any rate, we are gearing up for our next chance for rain. It's a cold front (and we haven't seen many of those lately) and it should be coming through Saturday. This will be one of those days where it's chilly in northwest Kansas and cooking in the south. Might be a 40 spread from west to east Saturday. Get ready.

10am temperatures:

7pm temperatures:

We should get some rain - since it's the fair and all - but I don't want you to get your hopes up for huge amounts. Here's why:

Upper-level winds on the Gulf coast are moving in the wrong direction (blowing northeast to southwest) and that will carry the rich humidity away from the Plains. The wind goes counterclockwise around a low pressure system. You can still get rain without a Gulf connection, but the amounts are not likely to be anything spectacular for most areas, and the heaviest stuff is usually much more isolated.

We still expect to see most of the rain Saturday/Saturday night - starting north and spreading south as the very cool air continues to push in. Much of the rain will come BEHIND the front, so you'll probably notice a wind shift first, temperatures going down, and then the rain chances start to increase.

12pm - most rain west and north:

8pm - rain does spread farther south and east, but it will likely be a slow process

Sunday - 6am - rain begins its exit to the east

Again, it doesn't appear the amounts we will get anything heavy, but amounts might be highest over northern Kansas and slightly less farther south.

It's such a tall order finding rain these days, but we keep looking out there for something. Couple of things - the heat DOES come back next week, but the high pressure is not going to be very strong. That should keep us from seeing any record heat. Also, there may be some small chances for rain mixed in toward the end of the week. Looking at the period from Thursday (Sep. 15-18), but I'm not too excited about it being heavy.

Have a great day.