Two rounds of rain - but are we still in the same ol' pattern

Week after week we continue to talk about the need for rain and how desperate some areas are right now. Well, two rounds of rain are coming and at least for a few, this might be the biggest rain in many, many weeks. 

Round #1 will arrive Wednesday-Thursday morning:

The rain will begin across Nebraska, Colorado, and extreme northern Kansas. As time wears on and we get into Wednesday night, we will see that area develop and shift to the south. Unlike some of our recent rounds of rain, this stuff might stick around for awhile, and provide some welcome amounts. 

Round #2: Expected Thursday night/early Friday: This batch of moisture will be lighter than the first round. I would expect amounts to be less than .25" 

Adding it all up yields a map that looks like this:

Rain amounts since July 1st:

Any break in the pattern soon?

Short answer is no. There just isn't anything suggesting we are moving out of this ridiculously dry pattern soon. I think we are remaining hopeful it's nearly over, but fact of the matter is moving into early October, it continues to look warmer than average and still no clear signals of continuing rain potential.

Look out Gulf of Mexico - next week:

Hurricane season has taken off and after watching a few storms in the Atlantic with no threat to the US, attention will be on the Gulf of Mexico next week. What could become "Hermine" may impact the southeast, including Florida. Plenty of time to watch, but this system is forming now near the Windward Islands. I don't think there is any chance of the system getting far enough west to have some impact on Kansas weather. It's rare that Gulf storms make it up to the central US, but it has happened before.