November outlook with our first storm in sight

Much of Kansas has reached the end of five consecutive months with below average rainfall, and we are quickly moving into what is typically the driest part of the year. Sadly, so many of the slow-moving systems lately have gone to the south of Kansas, just like this weekend storm. 

We've been showcasing the lack of rainfall since July 1st, which is essentially when the rain stopped, and the heat kicked in. Here's the update as we reach the end of October:

November averages look like this - typically one of the driest months: 

First system of the month - could be potent:

This will be a strong system cutting across the desert Southwest and reaching the Plains by the first weekend of November. I mentioned just this past week that the cold air is essentially cutting off from this developing storm, so whatever snow comes with it will be in the mountains - not in the Plains. 

Big systems that come in from the southwest tend to have a good Gulf of Mexico connection. This one should, but will it skirt across here quickly, or slow down and give us a few days of rain? 

After that system passes through the area, we should see warm and dry weather return and stick around into mid-November. There just isn't any sign at all that a cold snap is imminent. 

Closer to Thanksgiving - the weather will get active once again. I would anticipate more systems coming at us from the southwest, so our rain chances (and perhaps some snow) will ramp up around the holiday and to finish off the month. Of course, I wouldn't go rearranging any holiday travel plans, but I think it will be more interesting once we pass the halfway point of the month. 

Late November looks colder - but probably not record setting:

Why do we think that? It looks like the Arctic Oscillation trends negative during that time, which increases the chances of colder weather (doesn't always guarantee it). In negative episodes though, the upper-level winds tend to allow colder air south, which is something we'll be watching for in 2-3 weeks. 

Moisture in late November? There are early hints at it (as you can see below), but we know how the rain has been lately. Very elusive, and I'm not totally convinced that this new month will be any different.

Have a good one. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

October snows & the first potential November storm

Snow in October is not what I would consider a common occurrence, but it has happened before. As you would expect, it is more common for western Kansas to have an October snow rather than central or south central Kansas, but just two years ago, much of the state had a few inches, and there was ice in southeast Kansas. It was a storm that reached its peak intensity in the Plains and had us all wondering if we were headed for a really rough winter. Little did we know that just a little more than 3 months later, we'd have one of the coldest stretches of weather in recent history (the big Arctic blast that lead to frozen pipes and went all the way to the Gulf Coast in early February -2021). This was the scene in Wallace, KS (courtesy Roxanne Bussen) where 4 inches was reported on the morning of October 27th, 2020. 

Snow made it all the way to Amarillo, TX - if you can believe that - in late October, nonetheless.

This was the map we were showing on October 26, 2020. We can't forget the ice there was ice too, but not enough to cause widespread power outages. School was called off for some districts too - quite a storm considering time of year.

Halloween records:

If the snow two years ago had been a few days later, it would've almost made it into the record books for "biggest Halloween snow" - which dates back to 1991 when 1.5" fell on south-central Kansas. The big Halloween flood of 1998 still stands as the wettest on record with nearly 6 inches of rain.

Pattern shifting again next week - possible storm?

We are closely watching the end of next week (Nov. 3/4) for a potential rain maker that may come through the Plains. Upper-level winds at this time of year are getting much stronger and the energy coming into the west will help to develop a rather strong system out in the desert Southwest. Low pressure systems that track through southern California and into the 4 Corners are typically the ones most beneficial for Kansas because they have so much moisture they can utilize. What does all of this mean? Hopefully it will mean the chance at heavier rain for the central US, but track and intensity just aren't clear this far out. And those details are crucial to determining what the end result will be for the Plains.

What we do know is that we are moving into a pattern that DOESN'T look that cold (by November standards). In fact, much of the eastern half of the country may end up with near or above average temperatures - as you'll see below. If we do get a system coming across the area, chances of it producing snow are really, really slim. This time of year, the "Arctic Oscillation" can be foretelling of when it will turn much colder, and it remains positive for the first 10 days of November. That should decrease the chances of bitter cold diving south, so don't expect us to suddenly flip to winter anytime soon. Late November might be a different setup - stay tuned.

Early Maps for November - temperatures: (Nov. 3-10)

Nov. 8-15:

Thanks for reading - have a great day.

When was the drought this bad, or worse? Plus, NOAA's outlook

We've taken several questions this week wanting to know the last time drought was this bad in Kansas. The new map released Thursday has 30% of the state in "exceptional" drought status, with nearly 60% in "extreme". After digging through the map archives, it appears 2012 was the last major drought for the Plains. Here's how the map looked on September 4th, 2012:

The last drought map in 2012 looked like this:

And then July 2nd of 2013 looked like the one below:

We know that breaking a drought in winter is difficult to say the least. Even if you get some decent snow events, the actual water content just isn't what a good 2 or 3 inch rainstorm will provide in spring and summer. However, conditions can improve, so don't be too disheartened when you hear about drought through the winter. A couple of good snowstorms and even some rain mixed in from time to time can help to ease the situation, but safe to say that when we get to spring of 2023, we're still going to have a significant need for water.

Getting out of drought usually takes a LONG time - and I wouldn't expect any different for this go around. It would probably be the worst winter in recent memory to wipe out our current drought - and I don't see that happening this winter.

What do we make of NOAA winter outlook?

This question has also come up since the maps were released on Thursday. It doesn't tell us anything, really. (At least for Kansas anyway). When the map says "equal chances" - it's basically tells us it could be a warmer winter or a colder one. Hmmmm... 

We DO know La Niña continues to be in firm control - which is the colder than average water in the Pacific (near the Equator). Even though it's thousands of miles away, it has a huge influence. We've just experienced one of the driest summers on record - and that's classic La Niña. Unlocking clues for winter takes more effort and digging. We are working on a winter outlook, but we won't have that for another month yet. Several other key pieces to figure out before landing on a forecast for winter, so stay tuned. 

Couple of storms to watch for our last week of October:

The first one coming through on Monday will mainly target central/east. The system drops far enough south to ingest some good Gulf of Mexico moisture, which is what the models were NOT showing early on. However, given the latest trends, parts of eastern Kansas should get in on the 1-2 inches of rain before the system clears the area by Tuesday. 

The second system arriving just before Halloween has potential too. What will be interesting to watch is just how quickly it can recover moisture from the Gulf. Since it follows so quickly on the heels of Mondays system, there may end up being less humidity to work with, resulting in lower rainfall amounts. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Record watch, wind, and maybe rain?

Our brief encounter with winter is over with for now and won't be back anytime soon. We can say the growing season has ended with everyone in Kansas dropping into the 20s earlier this week (essentially right on schedule for much of the state, but maybe a week early for southeast Kansas)

It's amazing how quickly things flip around, and now we are looking at potentially threatening some record highs this weekend. Here are the numbers to beat for Saturday:

The biggest concern moving into the weekend is surrounding wind and fire danger. Gusts on Sunday will exceed 50 mph, mainly across central and southwest Kansas. Blowing dust could be a reality for some too, given how dry much of the state continues to be.

Very strong winds, like we will see on Sunday, directly relates to just how intense the low-pressure system will be as it crosses Nebraska and the Dakotas. It should pull away from Kansas by Monday afternoon, so winds will start going down during that time.

Latest on rain:

Unfortunately, given the track of the system, most of the good rain is likely going to escape to the east. We still feel like areas east of I-135 will have the highest chance of rain and storms. The setup would suggest some severe weather possible, but it's going to slide east quickly. On the back side (or the cold side) of the system, snow could fall as far south as western Nebraska. It's getting closer to us, but the wintry side of the low pressure should remain well north of Kansas. 

Another chance for rain may arrive late week, just prior to Halloween. I don't want to oversell it because there's a potential of getting a whole bunch of nothing, but there's something coming through this area. In recent weeks, we haven't even had that. Computer models right now really struggle to get a handle on this very changeable weather, so confidence is low. What we wouldn't do to get a good rain event. This has been a frustrating stretch for Kansas. 

Although the pattern looks active (very progressive) with one system tracking through after another, right now it still doesn't feel like we are in the right spot for anything significant in the coming 12-15 days. 

Drought map:

30% of Kansas in "exceptional" status

58% of the state in "extreme"

Just a really rough year depending on Mother Nature for any moisture at all. I'll have to do some digging, but I think this is as bad as it's been since 2012. 

First fall freeze is coming & first signs of a change

Take some time to get ready for a freeze next week. It kind of feels like it's sneaking up on us this year, but as I mentioned the other day, it will be right on schedule for most of Kansas.

How will it compare to the last five years? Just last year, Wichita didn't have a freeze until almost mid-November. However, it was nearly a month sooner in northwest Kansas. A killing freeze should happen Tuesday morning for much of the state. I think we could easily have 3 or 4 hours of temperatures below 32°, so be prepared to cover some plants or just accept the growing season coming to a close for another year. 

Here's a snapshot for Monday:

And Tuesday:

Wednesday looks like another frost/freeze:

Rain is what everybody keeps clamoring about - and I hear ya. The new drought map out this week has over 25% of Kansas in an exceptional category, with 57% in extreme. It's bad. Every system that comes our way finds a way to go around us, and it's getting old. 

Are we seeing hopeful signs yet?

The first glimmer of hope has started to show in the models. Upper-level winds need to switch to the west or southwest, and we aren't there yet. However, as we move toward the final week of October, it looks like there's a chance for change. Here's the setup by Monday, Oct. 24th. A system could be developing west of the Rockies, but it's still premature to say with any amount of confidence that it will be a large system. 

The 8-14 day outlook suggests rain will be coming this way, but I wouldn't say it looks all that heavy. It could still change - this is very much a time of year where the atmosphere is going through plenty of transition, and sometimes the models don't handle that well. Safe to say as we near Halloween, we will have more to watch than we do right now (not sure that is saying much considering how quiet things have been). 

Have a great day.

Nearing first frost - but not any closer to rain

The average first, fall frost is drawing closer and it will be right on schedule if it happens in the next week. Just by looking at the map below, you'll see that northwest Kansas typically gets its fall frost during the beginning of October, while central and southwest Kansas usually has a frost in mid-late October. Farther south, it's closer to Halloween. 

Even though the weather will be a little back and forth heading into this 3rd weekend of the month, we are expecting a pretty big blast of colder air to slide south and Kansas will be on the western edge of it all. 

This chunk of chilly air means frost is a real threat for a couple of mornings. Monday and Tuesday have the strongest potential of dipping down into the 30s nearly statewide (with Tuesday being most likely). The combination of mainly clear skies and lighter winds could spell a close encounter with 32°.

Just look how chilly it will be east of Kansas across the upper Midwest and around the Great Lakes (and those are AFTERNOON temperatures that we're showing) That's early winter when afternoons are spent in the 40s. 

Rainfall is still a sore subject - for good reason. Amounts since the beginning of July are pitiful nearly regionwide. Just take a look how some of the amounts in Kansas compare to locations south and west of us. It's not very often that Lubbock, TX and Grand Junction, CO have more rain than Wichita. It's not a pretty picture around here to say the least. 

In fact, meteorological fall (with about 50 days to go) is currently the driest on record for south central Kansas. It's the 3rd driest on record for Goodland. 

What's ahead? It's basically more of the same. The remaining few weeks of October look to be dry. Just looking at the map below - you'll see why we remain frustrated with this pattern. Good moisture to our south and east, but Kansas is still not in a good spot. 

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.