Record watch, wind, and maybe rain?

Our brief encounter with winter is over with for now and won't be back anytime soon. We can say the growing season has ended with everyone in Kansas dropping into the 20s earlier this week (essentially right on schedule for much of the state, but maybe a week early for southeast Kansas)

It's amazing how quickly things flip around, and now we are looking at potentially threatening some record highs this weekend. Here are the numbers to beat for Saturday:

The biggest concern moving into the weekend is surrounding wind and fire danger. Gusts on Sunday will exceed 50 mph, mainly across central and southwest Kansas. Blowing dust could be a reality for some too, given how dry much of the state continues to be.

Very strong winds, like we will see on Sunday, directly relates to just how intense the low-pressure system will be as it crosses Nebraska and the Dakotas. It should pull away from Kansas by Monday afternoon, so winds will start going down during that time.

Latest on rain:

Unfortunately, given the track of the system, most of the good rain is likely going to escape to the east. We still feel like areas east of I-135 will have the highest chance of rain and storms. The setup would suggest some severe weather possible, but it's going to slide east quickly. On the back side (or the cold side) of the system, snow could fall as far south as western Nebraska. It's getting closer to us, but the wintry side of the low pressure should remain well north of Kansas. 

Another chance for rain may arrive late week, just prior to Halloween. I don't want to oversell it because there's a potential of getting a whole bunch of nothing, but there's something coming through this area. In recent weeks, we haven't even had that. Computer models right now really struggle to get a handle on this very changeable weather, so confidence is low. What we wouldn't do to get a good rain event. This has been a frustrating stretch for Kansas. 

Although the pattern looks active (very progressive) with one system tracking through after another, right now it still doesn't feel like we are in the right spot for anything significant in the coming 12-15 days. 

Drought map:

30% of Kansas in "exceptional" status

58% of the state in "extreme"

Just a really rough year depending on Mother Nature for any moisture at all. I'll have to do some digging, but I think this is as bad as it's been since 2012.