Nearing first frost - but not any closer to rain

The average first, fall frost is drawing closer and it will be right on schedule if it happens in the next week. Just by looking at the map below, you'll see that northwest Kansas typically gets its fall frost during the beginning of October, while central and southwest Kansas usually has a frost in mid-late October. Farther south, it's closer to Halloween. 

Even though the weather will be a little back and forth heading into this 3rd weekend of the month, we are expecting a pretty big blast of colder air to slide south and Kansas will be on the western edge of it all. 

This chunk of chilly air means frost is a real threat for a couple of mornings. Monday and Tuesday have the strongest potential of dipping down into the 30s nearly statewide (with Tuesday being most likely). The combination of mainly clear skies and lighter winds could spell a close encounter with 32°.

Just look how chilly it will be east of Kansas across the upper Midwest and around the Great Lakes (and those are AFTERNOON temperatures that we're showing) That's early winter when afternoons are spent in the 40s. 

Rainfall is still a sore subject - for good reason. Amounts since the beginning of July are pitiful nearly regionwide. Just take a look how some of the amounts in Kansas compare to locations south and west of us. It's not very often that Lubbock, TX and Grand Junction, CO have more rain than Wichita. It's not a pretty picture around here to say the least. 

In fact, meteorological fall (with about 50 days to go) is currently the driest on record for south central Kansas. It's the 3rd driest on record for Goodland. 

What's ahead? It's basically more of the same. The remaining few weeks of October look to be dry. Just looking at the map below - you'll see why we remain frustrated with this pattern. Good moisture to our south and east, but Kansas is still not in a good spot. 

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.