October snows & the first potential November storm

Snow in October is not what I would consider a common occurrence, but it has happened before. As you would expect, it is more common for western Kansas to have an October snow rather than central or south central Kansas, but just two years ago, much of the state had a few inches, and there was ice in southeast Kansas. It was a storm that reached its peak intensity in the Plains and had us all wondering if we were headed for a really rough winter. Little did we know that just a little more than 3 months later, we'd have one of the coldest stretches of weather in recent history (the big Arctic blast that lead to frozen pipes and went all the way to the Gulf Coast in early February -2021). This was the scene in Wallace, KS (courtesy Roxanne Bussen) where 4 inches was reported on the morning of October 27th, 2020. 

Snow made it all the way to Amarillo, TX - if you can believe that - in late October, nonetheless.

This was the map we were showing on October 26, 2020. We can't forget the ice there was ice too, but not enough to cause widespread power outages. School was called off for some districts too - quite a storm considering time of year.

Halloween records:

If the snow two years ago had been a few days later, it would've almost made it into the record books for "biggest Halloween snow" - which dates back to 1991 when 1.5" fell on south-central Kansas. The big Halloween flood of 1998 still stands as the wettest on record with nearly 6 inches of rain.

Pattern shifting again next week - possible storm?

We are closely watching the end of next week (Nov. 3/4) for a potential rain maker that may come through the Plains. Upper-level winds at this time of year are getting much stronger and the energy coming into the west will help to develop a rather strong system out in the desert Southwest. Low pressure systems that track through southern California and into the 4 Corners are typically the ones most beneficial for Kansas because they have so much moisture they can utilize. What does all of this mean? Hopefully it will mean the chance at heavier rain for the central US, but track and intensity just aren't clear this far out. And those details are crucial to determining what the end result will be for the Plains.

What we do know is that we are moving into a pattern that DOESN'T look that cold (by November standards). In fact, much of the eastern half of the country may end up with near or above average temperatures - as you'll see below. If we do get a system coming across the area, chances of it producing snow are really, really slim. This time of year, the "Arctic Oscillation" can be foretelling of when it will turn much colder, and it remains positive for the first 10 days of November. That should decrease the chances of bitter cold diving south, so don't expect us to suddenly flip to winter anytime soon. Late November might be a different setup - stay tuned.

Early Maps for November - temperatures: (Nov. 3-10)

Nov. 8-15:

Thanks for reading - have a great day.