October outlook includes an eclipse & frost talk

Our first round of October rain looks like it could be a statewide chance as we watch a system coming at us from the west and a cold front that should dive south. However, there's still enormous frustration with what's going on right now given that we can't seem to find a steady diet of moisture. And I have some concerns about the rain setup in the first week of the new month. More about that in a second. 

Here's the drought map as we start October: 81% in some level of drought with 2% at the highest level

I've talked to several people that have said "a return to some mind of normal weather would be nice" - I couldn't agree more. Lately, just getting average rain would be a huge win because so many months this year, it hasn't been that way. 

Wichita:

Dodge City:

Salina:

First, let's look at October averages:

My concerns with the system arriving in early October is amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico AND the track of the overall system. As you'll see below, the moisture supply is probably enough to get some rain going, but a good strong connection to the Gulf is somewhat lacking. We are showing dew point numbers here, and we'd want them to be well above 60 if we could, and that better moisture is much farther south. Still, I think there is enough humidity in place to get some rain to show up.

The other concern is where the main system is tracking - which will probably go through Wyoming and on to the north. It would be better if it were about 100-200 miles farther south, but that seems unlikely given recent trends.

October outlook:

I just don't think the new month is going to be what we need or want - yet. After the initial round of rain, another lengthy dry spell looks to unfold for October week 2 and possibly week 3. 

The entire month may end up near to slightly above, but will all of that come at the beginning of the month? We have to remember that in October, patterns are evolving, the jet stream is strengthening, and some of our longer range stuff struggles to handle the changing season. 

October Temperatures (on some higher level of confidence here) will most likely end up warmer than average when all is said and done. 

As for our first fall frost, I'm not convinced it will be early this year. Northern Kansas can get the first frost by mid-October, but this year, I think it will be later than average and we may not get it until later in the month or even into November. 

Annular eclipse: Don't forget, this is coming up on October 14th. DON'T LOOK DIRECTLY AT THE SUN. If you want to get closer to the path of totality (the sun won't be completely blocked), you'll need to head farther west. 

Easily discouraged, but still reason to hope

It's really easy to get discouraged with the rain (or lack thereof in this case). Late last week, I tried to highlight reasons to be optimistic about upcoming moisture and back at the beginning of the month, we were quite hopeful the end of September would be more productive. And as you have probably come to understand, that's not what will actually play out. This happens and I understand the frustration. I will say in my experience, our computer models tend to really struggle in autumn (and sometimes spring too) as the atmosphere undergoes its seasonal transition. For whatever reason, once you get beyond day 4, there tends to be all kinds of errors. This time of year, the jet stream is strengthening, and the temperature contrasts are more robust. Models can really be misleading in fall and spring. 

The pattern for the last week of September showcases a building high pressure (or ridge) which is NOT favorable for moisture. This is different than the upper high we had back in August that led to relentless heat. In late September, it's not the same magnitude and the end result will be above average temperatures, but not record highs and 100s. Thank goodness. Take note of the big "low" sitting just off the West coast. This may be a familiar sight as we head into October. Areas west of the Rockies may get some very good moisture in the next several weeks.

Unfortunately, with the pattern that is about to play out, dry weather will be quite common across Kansas. Areas north of us will likely be dry too. Best moisture coming up will go south and east of Kansas.

There's still reason to be optimistic, but I understand that most of you are fitting into the category of "believe when I see it", and I don't blame you. This has been a tough place to squeeze out good, quality moisture. All I can do is show you what we are seeing in some of the longer-range data.

Early October:

I still see signs of persistent troughs (or low-pressure systems) coming through the West. That's going to keep western sections of the US much cooler than average for the next several weeks. Will that active weather reach the central Plains? It looked like that might happen for the end of September, but in fact, that's not working out how we hoped. 

Into mid-October:

Still seeing signs of rain into the second week of October. Please remember that "average" rainfall for this period of October 8-15 is only going to be around an inch or so, as we move deeper into fall, rainfall amounts tend to decrease. I would expect this will once again be courtesy of a western low pressure that tracks through this region. 

October as a whole:

All I can say is keep your hopes alive and go ahead and get next years wheat crop in the ground. Rain will come (hopefully sooner rather than later). 

Thanks for reading. 

For those who came by the fair booth asking for rain...

If you came by the state fair booth and said hello, thanks for taking time to do so. The overwhelming ask was "where's the rain", or "when are you going to start letting it rain more". All I could do is smile and say - it's coming. In my last update, we highlighted El Nino and the prospects of wetter weather coming to the Plains, and the maps are showing just that. 

Here's quick rain summary of September 9-14. Finally getting some rain in places that have been missed for the last 30-45 days. Heaviest (once again) - western Kansas. Just look at that bullseye from west central down through the southwest. 

Still the latest drought map out shows no major change from the first map that came out in September.

What jumps out to us next is a fairly sizeable low pressure system coming across the west. This could be a combo of two systems merging (one from the Pacific Northwest and one from California). Either way, we should have a rather robust setup for rain and one that may very well cover the region. Here's what we are seeing at roughly 18,000 feet - see for yourself the big upper low west of the Rockies.

Meanwhile near the ground, the uninterrupted supply of Gulf of Mexico humidity feeds right up into the Plains states. That should help make the thunderstorms more efficient rain makers. 

All of this leading to what should be above average rains (September 17-24):

Another way we could look at the rain potential. What is the % chance of getting at least 1" or more between now and the end of this month? Not bad for the extreme-exceptional drought areas:

And take a first look at early October - more rain? 

This time of year, the fronts and low pressure systems are getting stronger. While fall is not a particularly wet time of year, the right setup with upper air support can yield some nice moisture. Back in 2018, we had a VERY wet October (in fact, one of the wettest on record for many areas in Kansas), and the rain amounts were around 5-6 inches. In springtime, that wouldn't be quite enough to even crack top 10 wettest months for May and June. 

However, just a quick glimpse at something that caught my eye for early October. We may have a very progressive pattern (one where we see fast moving, low pressure systems tracking west to east) Plenty can change between now and then, but my point here is that we have reason to hope more timely rain is coming that will continue to fight the drought conditions we've been experiencing for months. 

Thanks for coming by here for a few minutes. Have a good day.

El Nino & seasonal outlooks - great news for the drought!

I wanted to provide a quick update on El Nino as we near the beginning of fall. We are anticipating it being a major factor in how the fall and winter season plays out for Kansas. As winter draws near, we will come back to the topic, so we'll keep our focus more on fall for the discussion here. 

As a refresher, El Nino is the warmer than average water that gathers along the Equator in the Pacific. The area monitored is shown below. It's not the entire Pacific, nor is it the entire area along the Equator. Right now, the average water temperature is 1.6°C above, which would signal a moderate El Nino at this stage. 

Some of the warmer water continues to push westward (close to 87/88°C) in the westernmost part of the area that is monitored. 

The last El Nino fall that we had was back in 2018. Average water temperature during that time was roughly .7-1°C above, so this one (currently) is stronger, but that doesn't always mean a more dramatic impact on our local weather. What was the fall of 2018 like? Remember, there are many other factors in play besides El Nino, but the months of September through November were all primarily cooler than average. 

September Temperatures:

October:

November:

Precipitation in September of 2018 was near to above average in most of the state (but not all).

October 2018 was a very WET month across the state. Dodge City had it's wettest October on record with over 6 inches. Salina and Wichita had a top 5 wettest Octobers:

November 2018 had some rain over central and northern Kansas, but the south had a slightly drier month.

Latest seasonal thoughts:

There's never any guarantee in the weather business, BUT we do feel confident in some very different weather playing out as fall and winter set in. The southern half of the US tends to get more moisture in El Nino patterns, and I think we are just at the beginning of seeing that turn into reality. Here's the latest outlook for September, October, and November. 

Will the moisture be spread evenly over those three months? It's hard to say, but as we approach mid-September, expectations are we end up with just "average" moisture this month (which would be about 1.50-3") for most of the state.

If you want to go out even further, October, November, and December show similar ideas of above average moisture. 

You might be asking "how much of this could be snow?" - No way to tell yet and the signals on temperature aren't clear this far out. Just wanting to put this out there for the drought-stricken areas that have really struggled in recent years. I think better weather is coming this way. El Nino can be quite helpful for the Plains, and we feel like this is just the beginning of better things to come.

Fall drawing near - September outlook

I don't know about anyone else, but this summer has felt quite strange to me. In quick summary, beneficial rains started falling late in spring and we essentially wiped out the drought in early summer for western Kansas. It felt a little unusual to see drought conditions peel back first in the west, while areas farther east can't buy decent rain. Then, the temperature side of it all. Early summer wasn't that hot, but we sure hit a big heat wave leading up to the 4th of July, only to be followed by a second wave in late July/early August. And it was even hotter in mid-late August. 

September 1st marks the start of "meteorological" fall. Why do we get to claim our own seasons? Well, since there are 12 months in a year and 4 seasons, it's just easier for record keeping to group the seasons in 3 month chunks. And "official" start dates of the seasons sometimes fall on different calendar days. There are a couple of things to note - El Nino (which is a warming of the water near the Equator) has gotten quite warm. 

In fact, the area that is monitored for declaring such phenomena is now 1.5°C ABOVE the average. We are on the verge of a strong El Nino. It will be talked about more and more with winter coming. 

Here's what September averages are for Kansas:

Early September:

It's going to be extremely difficult to buy some good moisture in the first half of the month. The "heat ridge" is going to shift away from the Plains soon and take up a spot in Arizona and northern Mexico. This happens as we approach the 2nd weekend of the month (Sep. 8-10). 

Earlier this year when we saw this setup, we had nice rains coming from Colorado and into western Kansas. Let's watch and see if it happens again soon - I think there's reasonable expectation that we'll get some rain going for western Kansas, but getting that moisture farther east seems doubtful. 

And it will still be quite warm/hot for September. The first half of the month looks warmer than average to say the least. It doesn't appear we will have a string of 100s, but 90s could rule for a while.

2nd half of the month:

Trends would suggest that most, if not all of our rain in September will come later in the month. We should finally be free of the heat ridge and as the cold fronts get stronger, some of the data suggests much better rain potential waiting for us in the last few weeks of the month. Here's a snapshot out of late September (through the 25th) showing near to above average rain for much of the Plains. 

I'm still not convinced September will be a "wet" month, but the end should be more productive than the beginning when it comes to moisture. 

Have a great day.