For those who came by the fair booth asking for rain...

If you came by the state fair booth and said hello, thanks for taking time to do so. The overwhelming ask was "where's the rain", or "when are you going to start letting it rain more". All I could do is smile and say - it's coming. In my last update, we highlighted El Nino and the prospects of wetter weather coming to the Plains, and the maps are showing just that. 

Here's quick rain summary of September 9-14. Finally getting some rain in places that have been missed for the last 30-45 days. Heaviest (once again) - western Kansas. Just look at that bullseye from west central down through the southwest. 

Still the latest drought map out shows no major change from the first map that came out in September.

What jumps out to us next is a fairly sizeable low pressure system coming across the west. This could be a combo of two systems merging (one from the Pacific Northwest and one from California). Either way, we should have a rather robust setup for rain and one that may very well cover the region. Here's what we are seeing at roughly 18,000 feet - see for yourself the big upper low west of the Rockies.

Meanwhile near the ground, the uninterrupted supply of Gulf of Mexico humidity feeds right up into the Plains states. That should help make the thunderstorms more efficient rain makers. 

All of this leading to what should be above average rains (September 17-24):

Another way we could look at the rain potential. What is the % chance of getting at least 1" or more between now and the end of this month? Not bad for the extreme-exceptional drought areas:

And take a first look at early October - more rain? 

This time of year, the fronts and low pressure systems are getting stronger. While fall is not a particularly wet time of year, the right setup with upper air support can yield some nice moisture. Back in 2018, we had a VERY wet October (in fact, one of the wettest on record for many areas in Kansas), and the rain amounts were around 5-6 inches. In springtime, that wouldn't be quite enough to even crack top 10 wettest months for May and June. 

However, just a quick glimpse at something that caught my eye for early October. We may have a very progressive pattern (one where we see fast moving, low pressure systems tracking west to east) Plenty can change between now and then, but my point here is that we have reason to hope more timely rain is coming that will continue to fight the drought conditions we've been experiencing for months. 

Thanks for coming by here for a few minutes. Have a good day.