Fall drawing near - September outlook

I don't know about anyone else, but this summer has felt quite strange to me. In quick summary, beneficial rains started falling late in spring and we essentially wiped out the drought in early summer for western Kansas. It felt a little unusual to see drought conditions peel back first in the west, while areas farther east can't buy decent rain. Then, the temperature side of it all. Early summer wasn't that hot, but we sure hit a big heat wave leading up to the 4th of July, only to be followed by a second wave in late July/early August. And it was even hotter in mid-late August. 

September 1st marks the start of "meteorological" fall. Why do we get to claim our own seasons? Well, since there are 12 months in a year and 4 seasons, it's just easier for record keeping to group the seasons in 3 month chunks. And "official" start dates of the seasons sometimes fall on different calendar days. There are a couple of things to note - El Nino (which is a warming of the water near the Equator) has gotten quite warm. 

In fact, the area that is monitored for declaring such phenomena is now 1.5°C ABOVE the average. We are on the verge of a strong El Nino. It will be talked about more and more with winter coming. 

Here's what September averages are for Kansas:

Early September:

It's going to be extremely difficult to buy some good moisture in the first half of the month. The "heat ridge" is going to shift away from the Plains soon and take up a spot in Arizona and northern Mexico. This happens as we approach the 2nd weekend of the month (Sep. 8-10). 

Earlier this year when we saw this setup, we had nice rains coming from Colorado and into western Kansas. Let's watch and see if it happens again soon - I think there's reasonable expectation that we'll get some rain going for western Kansas, but getting that moisture farther east seems doubtful. 

And it will still be quite warm/hot for September. The first half of the month looks warmer than average to say the least. It doesn't appear we will have a string of 100s, but 90s could rule for a while.

2nd half of the month:

Trends would suggest that most, if not all of our rain in September will come later in the month. We should finally be free of the heat ridge and as the cold fronts get stronger, some of the data suggests much better rain potential waiting for us in the last few weeks of the month. Here's a snapshot out of late September (through the 25th) showing near to above average rain for much of the Plains. 

I'm still not convinced September will be a "wet" month, but the end should be more productive than the beginning when it comes to moisture. 

Have a great day.