Easily discouraged, but still reason to hope

It's really easy to get discouraged with the rain (or lack thereof in this case). Late last week, I tried to highlight reasons to be optimistic about upcoming moisture and back at the beginning of the month, we were quite hopeful the end of September would be more productive. And as you have probably come to understand, that's not what will actually play out. This happens and I understand the frustration. I will say in my experience, our computer models tend to really struggle in autumn (and sometimes spring too) as the atmosphere undergoes its seasonal transition. For whatever reason, once you get beyond day 4, there tends to be all kinds of errors. This time of year, the jet stream is strengthening, and the temperature contrasts are more robust. Models can really be misleading in fall and spring. 

The pattern for the last week of September showcases a building high pressure (or ridge) which is NOT favorable for moisture. This is different than the upper high we had back in August that led to relentless heat. In late September, it's not the same magnitude and the end result will be above average temperatures, but not record highs and 100s. Thank goodness. Take note of the big "low" sitting just off the West coast. This may be a familiar sight as we head into October. Areas west of the Rockies may get some very good moisture in the next several weeks.

Unfortunately, with the pattern that is about to play out, dry weather will be quite common across Kansas. Areas north of us will likely be dry too. Best moisture coming up will go south and east of Kansas.

There's still reason to be optimistic, but I understand that most of you are fitting into the category of "believe when I see it", and I don't blame you. This has been a tough place to squeeze out good, quality moisture. All I can do is show you what we are seeing in some of the longer-range data.

Early October:

I still see signs of persistent troughs (or low-pressure systems) coming through the West. That's going to keep western sections of the US much cooler than average for the next several weeks. Will that active weather reach the central Plains? It looked like that might happen for the end of September, but in fact, that's not working out how we hoped. 

Into mid-October:

Still seeing signs of rain into the second week of October. Please remember that "average" rainfall for this period of October 8-15 is only going to be around an inch or so, as we move deeper into fall, rainfall amounts tend to decrease. I would expect this will once again be courtesy of a western low pressure that tracks through this region. 

October as a whole:

All I can say is keep your hopes alive and go ahead and get next years wheat crop in the ground. Rain will come (hopefully sooner rather than later). 

Thanks for reading.