Whiplash is coming in February

I found it really hard to believe the other day that so many locations in Kansas hadn't experienced a 50° day in January. We all know it's been cold, but for some reason I thought we had made it to 50 earlier in the month. At any rate, we are moving into the 50s for the last few days of the month, but January as a whole has been cold! (see the map below)

The pattern is all different next week, where we find ourselves in the calm before February's storm. When it comes to rain (or snow), we are basically in no man's land for either one. And it will be way to warm for snow anyway. A building ridge of high pressure sets the stage for a huge surge in warm air, and it wouldn't be impossible for a day (or two) briefly getting to 60°

Much of the country will experience the "January thaw" for the end of the month, and even the first few days into February look rather mild too. 

There's no doubt we will quickly move back into a wet setup and eventually, colder weather is going to find its way back to the Plains. We hinted at this in our last update that given a "negative" Arctic Oscillation, we should see the gates open to Canada once again. I don't think it will be quite as cold as the stretch we had earlier in January, but highs in the teens and 20s would certainly be in the realm of possibilities moving forward.

Moisture returns soon:

The southern branch of the jet stream is ramping up again, and we will see more low pressure systems coming at us from the desert Southwest. Be prepared as we move into the first week of the new month!

The cold is not over yet:

While I'm not convinced the February cold snap is like the January one, we are not headed for early spring. I have a strong feeling that the month ahead is colder than average, so don't let the early February warmth lead you astray. The map above would suggest much of the country will be headed for cold weather again soon. Oh boy.