Rainfall amounts & drought update

Rainfall Amounts through 7 a.m. Thursday:
Wichita: 1.75"
Jabara Airport: 1.43"
Winfield: 1.09"
Kingman: 1.00"
Medicine Lodge: 0.25"
Hutch: 0.17"
Elkhart: 0.05"
Liberal: 0.03"

How has the drought map changed now that we've had some rain this month? Well, the drought is FAR from over, but there's been some improvement.
Here's the map from May 1st where a good chunk of the state was in "extreme" drought.

Just today, the new drought map is indicating shrinking areas of extreme drought. However, there's still a great deal of severe drought covering the state. The only areas that appear to be in good shape are the northwest and southeast corners of Kansas. It takes an enormous amount of steady rains to replenish subsoil moisture as well as farm ponds, lakes, rivers, etc.

Unfortunately, the month of June is shaping up to be a dry one for many areas. I'll be sharing a June outlook with you tomorrow and we will look back at what has been one of the hottest months of May ever recorded.

A few severe storms tonight

After a couple of very busy days with severe weather, the threat is much lower today. However, we still have a chance for some strong storms to clip parts of the state. Biggest threat will likely be some gusty winds and lightning as storms move in.

Outlook area:
Storms will begin in eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. Once the storms develop, they should move east. Storms that have the best chance of surviving after dark will be those in southern Kansas. What develops in northwest Kansas should fade away.

Storms should be moving into south central Kansas around 11 p.m. Those storms are not expected to be severe.

Tuesday tornado near Ensign was quite spectacular. Luckily, the storm ran into other rain and storms just southwest of Dodge City. That was likely the end of the tornado. We did have another report of a tornado southeast of Dodge City, but there was never any confirmation of that. Other storms tried to produce tornadoes, but didn't have any luck.

The picture from Dustin Hessman was one of the best photos of the night. As far as we know, the tornado didn't hit any structures.

Incredible rains & severe threat today

Hope you had a terrific Memorial Day weekend. The holiday weekend ends with some incredible rainfall across northwest and north central Kansas. It was hard to believe some of the radar estimates we were looking at in the storm center Monday night. Some places appeared to have received over 8 and 9 inches of rain.
Here are some totals through 7 a.m.:
Hill City: 5.64"
Goodland: 1.83"
Hays: 1.22"
Russell: 1.05"
Dodge City: 0.94"
Garden City: 0.94"
Goodland: 0.79"
Smith Center: 0.42"
Wichita: 0.34"
Pratt: 0.23"
Medicine Lodge: 0.17"
Liberal: 0.13"
Newton: 0.11"

Setup Today:
More strong/severe storms will be pushing through Kansas. Storms will likely intensify/develop near Hays down to just east of Dodge City. Once they take off, they should move to the east. Main threats until about 7 p.m. will be large hail and strong winds. After 7 p.m., storms will likely be more wind/heavy rain producers. The tornado threat is very low today, but can't be completely ruled out.

Storms will arrive into the Hutch/Wichita areas after 7 p.m. and continue moving east. Latest model trends show storms getting out of the area shortly after midnight.

Rainfall amounts & the holiday weekend setup

Rainfall Amounts (ending at 7 a.m. Friday)

Ellsworth: 2.50"

Geneseo: 1.15"

Newton: 0.96"

Hill City: 0.90"

Russell: 0.45"

Jabara Airport: 0.39"

Hutch: 0.29"

Great Bend: 0.25"

Wichita: 0.23"

Salina: 0.22"

Winfield: 0.10"

Most of us are in for a hot Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures might feel more like the 4th of July, but this is the unofficial start to summer. The entire month of May has been pretty hot, so as we head into the homestretch, I'll be checking to record books to see if this turns out to be the warmest May on record. 

The next storm to watch: This will be pushing in from the west as we head through Saturday and into Sunday. There won't be storms Saturday, and even most of Sunday looks dry, but by the evening, chances for scattered storms will arrive. This western storm will hang around through Memorial Day, and will likely stir up some more storms Monday evening across central and western Kansas. So our best storm chances come right at the end of the long weekend. A few storms could have some strong winds and small hail. The best chance at some severe weather would be Monday evening/night.

Have a safe and wonderful holiday!

Latest tornado count... this is hard to believe

We know the tornado season has been pretty slow around Kansas, but the only ones upset about that are those who want to study or chase them.

We are at the peak of tornado season in the Plains. The map above (courtesy of Storm Prediction Center) shows the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. In most seasons, hanging around Kansas would offer a good possibility of being close to one, but not necessarily this year. That area of higher tornado probability will shift north in the next 30 days.

Tornado numbers shown below are for the entire US. We are comparing this year to the last 13 years. The data, through May 22, shows we are on track to set some record low numbers. In the bar graph, you'll see that only one other year is lower than where we are now, and that was back in 2013.

(Click on the graphs to make them larger)

The black line represents the current year. In the first graph below, you'll see where we currently rank with respect to "normals". Just so you know, about 1200 tornadoes annually for the entire US is what is considered normal. 

This shows how this year compares to normal

How 2018 compares to other years (since 2005)

So what is behind the lower number of tornadoes? Well, April was so darn cool that storm season just couldn't get going. Colder air near the ground works against thunderstorm chances. The other factor, drought. Without much available moisture in the ground, there's a strong tendency to not get as many storms. And finally, the upper level winds haven't been as strong this May. The lower wind speeds translates to fewer rotating storms, and thus, fewer tornadoes. 

La Nina is over... what does that mean for summer?

We've moved into a MUCH quieter week this week and it gives me a chance to discuss some other important factors driving our weather.

El Nino-La Nina update:
Some of you may have heard by now but La Nina is over! It's been influencing part of our weather from last fall, through the winter, and now it's back to neutral. You can see in the graph below how the line is moving back up (toward the right of the graph), indicating the water temperatures are warming. Remember, the area we watch is in the Pacific and along the Equator.

So with La Nina out and no El Nino, you're probably still wondering what kind of summer we will have. The answer isn't going to be popular with many, but it looks drier than normal and most likely, a bit warmer than normal. I don't see this as a blistering summer like 2011/2012 when most of the state had weeks on end of 100s. But it won't be a surprise to have some long, long stretches of 90s and little if any significant moisture.

What may change soon?
Earlier this month, I mentioned a chance to break this latest spell of very warm weather. It looked like it may happen before the Memorial Day weekend, but now, it looks like it may come several days after the holiday. The map below shows some cooler than normal weather coming, which could be a stretch of highs near 80. Let's continue to watch and see how the pattern evolves. But it may not get here until right at the end of the month.

What about RAINFALL??? I just wish I could deliver better news, but dry is the word for the next 7 days. What MIGHT help us out is an approaching western storm about the middle of next week. The storm will be in California for the Memorial Day weekend and then push east. As it does so, chances for storms may increase around May 30/31. Let's hope!!

Update on severe weather chances

The weekend is here and for some of us, it will be a stormy one. It's a busy time of year with graduations, kids getting out of school, and many people scattering to the lake. We are expecting severe weather today (Friday) and again Saturday. 

Friday: Storms developing across western Kansas around 6 or 7 p.m. will be moving east. Main threats will be some large hail to start, and then later on, gusty winds up to 70 mph and heavy rains. I expect as we move past 11 p.m./midnight, storms will weaken as they move east, but heavy rains will continue with the storms. Although storms will be scattered to start, they should grow into a bigger complex that moves east with time.

Saturday: Highest severe threat is focused over northeast Kansas. Large hail, high winds, and a few tornadoes look possible. There's a cold front that will be pushing through our area, which will set the storms off after 5/6 p.m. Although there may be some rain and storms in western Kansas, they aren't expected to be hail or wind producers.

So take a look at the images and plan accordingly. It's another weekend in May that will be a little on the stormy side and we want to make sure you are prepared. Although we have some spotty rain/storm chances for next week, the severe threat will be lower for much of the week.

Storm chances into the weekend

Thanks for checking out the blog and spending just a minute or two with us. We do have more thunderstorm chances in the forecast heading into the weekend. There's so much humidity around here and with afternoon heating, it's not too hard to get something to pop up.

With the approach of another storm system from the west, here's where the chances will be highest.

Today:
Most storms will be focused over western Kansas. These will be very hit and miss, with more places getting missed. Frustrating to say the least when you need rain in the worst way. Some hail & wind can be expected. The best chance for severe weather will be in northeast Colorado, western Nebraska, and far NW Kansas.

Friday:
The focus for storms will once again be in western Kansas during the evening hours. What develops will move east through the evening. Heaviest rains will be across Colorado, Nebraska, and northern Kansas. Once again, some storms will be severe with hail & strong winds. They should weaken some late into the night as they try to move east.

Saturday:
There will be a cold front in the area Saturday late afternoon. As the front runs into higher humidity, scattered storms begin to fire off. I don't think you'll see that many severe storms, but heavy downpours and small hail certainly look likely. Be prepared if you are camping or attending an outdoor graduation. We'll be dodging storms at least through Saturday night.

New Drought Map is out:
No big change, but some rearranging of the highest level. Exceptional drought continues in southwest Kansas, and a few areas have been lowered to "severe". It's still pretty bad in many areas, so let's keep the rain coming for as long as we can. This is really hard on agriculture when water isn't there.

Rainfall amounts & what's still to come

Rainfall reports from Monday evening/early Tuesday:
Winfield: 2.02"
Emporia: 1.85"
Medicine Lodge: 0.90"
Jabara Airport (NE Wichita): 0.56"
Garden City: 0.55"
Concordia: 0.16"
Dodge City: 0.14"
Salina: 0.12"
Newton: 0.09"
Hutch: 0.07"


Some of you have asked if we are still expecting most of the state to get rain (like what we were talking about at the end of last week). The answer to that is yes!! We still have several more chances coming up this week and we have a much better idea when it will arrive.

Tonight (Tue. Night): Best rain chance - SW
Showers and storms will develop and move into far southwest Kansas late into the evening. These storms should not be severe.

Wednesday: Spotty thunderstorms for central and southern Kansas
Not everyone will get rain Wednesday, but watch for the hit and miss storms to develop in the heat of the afternoon.

Thursday: Main area of storms - NW Kansas
Chances for storms will shift back to northern Kansas with some heavy rain, hail, and some wind. Storm chances will continue for northern Kansas well into the night.

Friday & into Saturday:
Chances for storms return to northern Kansas by Friday evening. This could be a severe weather setup again for many areas. We will also be watching for storms to develop in southwest Kansas and continue into the night.

By the end of this week, many areas still stand a chance of getting about an inch (or more around heavier storms). So our forecast from last week still stands. Just have to be patient with the rain as we have many, many chances still to move our way.

Severe threat for Monday (May 14)

This will be an active week of weather with many different storm chances coming our way. Here at the beginning of the week, the focus is on this old front that is still hanging over Kansas. The front will just meander for at least two more days, then should get washed out after that.

Timing for storms today:
Most likely developing after 6 or 7 p.m. - storms will move east or northeast, but not very fast. In some cases it may only be 15-25 mph. So heavy rainfall will no doubt accompany the storms, but there is also a risk for some hail & strong winds.

Because the front is near the Kansas Turnpike, that's where the favored area for storm development will be. There may also be some storms in northwest Kansas during the evening, but those will be extremely spotty.

Later this week, more storms will be coming. I'll update you on that as we go throughout the week.

Are we in for storms everyday in the next week?

So many different places you can get a forecast these days, and some of them out there have storm chances EVERY day between now and the end of next week. It is safe to say this could be the most active stretch we've had in over 6 months. But the chance any one area will have a storm every day is LOW! 

What to watch this weekend:

Temperatures will range from 60s and 70s to the north, to low 90s in the south. Storm chances don't look good at all for Saturday, but heads up to Sunday night.

Sunday night storm chance:

I expect some strong to severe storms heading into Sunday evening. Just a heads up as I think this is our next highest chance for some severe storms. They look to develop east of a Hays to Dodge City line and then move northeast. Hail is the biggest threat.

Next week:

Most storm chances will be late evening and into the night. There is a SLOW-nearly stationary storm over Utah and Idaho. It's not until the middle of next week (around Wednesday, May 16) that the system begins to move. When it finally does, rain and storm chances will ramp up statewide by Wednesday/Thursday. So don't get discouraged if you are missed by rain Monday and Tuesday - chances will increase midweek.

How much rain?

I realize it's going out on a limb to post this image, realizing that with scattered storm chances, some of you won't get what is shown here. But I wanted to show you what is POSSIBLE between now and the end of next week. With so many rounds of storms possible, we could chip away at drought conditions. 

Update on storm chances

This month of May (just over a week into it) has felt like late June. It is a little scary to warm up so quickly, but if you are afraid a hot start to May means a hot summer, just read my last blog entry. We can't draw any conclusions yet, because sometimes a hot May turns into an average June/July.

Look at the average high temperatures for Wichita and Dodge City:

• Average for Wichita: 84.8°
• Average for Dodge City: 85.8°

Normal highs are in the mid 70s, so this is out of place.

Here's what to watch as we move into Mother's Day weekend.

Friday:

A front will slip into northern Kansas for Friday afternoon and into the night. This may help to pop off some scattered storms north of I-70 into the night. A little bit of hail - some gusty winds are possible. 

Saturday:

The front meanders a little farther south. I expect there's going to be quite a range in temperatures. Cooler north and hotter to the south. Some of you in southern Kansas may still get 90 Saturday afternoon, but farther north, it looks like some 70s and low 80s. 

Sunday:

The front will stop right over south central Kansas. Most of us will finally cool down some for Mother's Day, but storm chances hold off until closer to dark. There's some concern storms in south central Kansas Sunday night could be strong or severe. So please look for updates on this time period through the next couple of days.  

I still expect the second half of May will see less heat. It's not going to turn cold or anything like that, but should see temperatures getting back closer to normal (which would be more 70s and low 80s)

Hot start to May - are we in for a scorching summer?

We've completed our first full week of May and so far, the month is pretty toasty (after a month of April that was so much cooler than normal).

Just look at this map showing average temperature compared to normal for the US. The average is more than 3° above normal. Most of Kansas is running 5-10° above normal, but we are still early on in the month.

Does a jump start on the heat mean we are in trouble for the summer? Not exactly. Just look at the latest cases:

May 2012 - Very warm

That summer would go on to have 13-100° days (Avg. High of 96° for Wichita) 

It was an extremely hot summer - and very dry too.

May 2011 - Turns out much cooler than normal

That summer would go on to have 49-100° days (Avg. High of 98.3° for Wichita)

That was a record setting summer. 

So just because May is off to a very warm start, we can't draw conclusions on the summer yet. 

What does the longer range models suggest?

I still think we are in for a hot summer, but not the extreme blowtorch hot summer we had back in 2011-2012. The second half of May should cool off a bit. Here's an outlook as we head toward Memorial Day. It shows a good part of the Plains and upper Midwest cooling down. This would likely mean temperatures slipping back closer to normal (70s).