Severe Threat - Tuesday update

Active weather continues to look like a strong possibility for central and northern Kansas heading into the afternoon and evening. Last night, most of the hail and wind stayed north of Kansas, but that begins to change today.

Setup: there is a front that will stretch from eastern Colorado into central and northern Kansas. There is also a dryline that will stretch from Ness City/Dodge City down into Oklahoma. Remember, that is the line dividing humid air from dry air. You can see in the image below just how drastic the separation is, and that is usually a favored area for storms to take off.

Timing: Here is a sequence of some slides that show the evolution of storms as they take off throughout the day. It's not an exact representation, but should give you some idea of when & where the first storms could go up. We don't expect a tornado outbreak, but there will be some very large hail with afternoon and evening storms.

Once storms gets going, they should move northeast.

Later into the evening (probably closer to 10 p.m. or after), the majority of storms will likely shift north of I-70. As we head later into the night, I expect the weather will calm down across most of Kansas.