La Nina is over... what does that mean for summer?

We've moved into a MUCH quieter week this week and it gives me a chance to discuss some other important factors driving our weather.

El Nino-La Nina update:
Some of you may have heard by now but La Nina is over! It's been influencing part of our weather from last fall, through the winter, and now it's back to neutral. You can see in the graph below how the line is moving back up (toward the right of the graph), indicating the water temperatures are warming. Remember, the area we watch is in the Pacific and along the Equator.

So with La Nina out and no El Nino, you're probably still wondering what kind of summer we will have. The answer isn't going to be popular with many, but it looks drier than normal and most likely, a bit warmer than normal. I don't see this as a blistering summer like 2011/2012 when most of the state had weeks on end of 100s. But it won't be a surprise to have some long, long stretches of 90s and little if any significant moisture.

What may change soon?
Earlier this month, I mentioned a chance to break this latest spell of very warm weather. It looked like it may happen before the Memorial Day weekend, but now, it looks like it may come several days after the holiday. The map below shows some cooler than normal weather coming, which could be a stretch of highs near 80. Let's continue to watch and see how the pattern evolves. But it may not get here until right at the end of the month.

What about RAINFALL??? I just wish I could deliver better news, but dry is the word for the next 7 days. What MIGHT help us out is an approaching western storm about the middle of next week. The storm will be in California for the Memorial Day weekend and then push east. As it does so, chances for storms may increase around May 30/31. Let's hope!!