Hot start to May - are we in for a scorching summer?

We've completed our first full week of May and so far, the month is pretty toasty (after a month of April that was so much cooler than normal).

Just look at this map showing average temperature compared to normal for the US. The average is more than 3° above normal. Most of Kansas is running 5-10° above normal, but we are still early on in the month.

Does a jump start on the heat mean we are in trouble for the summer? Not exactly. Just look at the latest cases:

May 2012 - Very warm

That summer would go on to have 13-100° days (Avg. High of 96° for Wichita) 

It was an extremely hot summer - and very dry too.

May 2011 - Turns out much cooler than normal

That summer would go on to have 49-100° days (Avg. High of 98.3° for Wichita)

That was a record setting summer. 

So just because May is off to a very warm start, we can't draw conclusions on the summer yet. 

What does the longer range models suggest?

I still think we are in for a hot summer, but not the extreme blowtorch hot summer we had back in 2011-2012. The second half of May should cool off a bit. Here's an outlook as we head toward Memorial Day. It shows a good part of the Plains and upper Midwest cooling down. This would likely mean temperatures slipping back closer to normal (70s).