Latest tornado count... this is hard to believe

We know the tornado season has been pretty slow around Kansas, but the only ones upset about that are those who want to study or chase them.

We are at the peak of tornado season in the Plains. The map above (courtesy of Storm Prediction Center) shows the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. In most seasons, hanging around Kansas would offer a good possibility of being close to one, but not necessarily this year. That area of higher tornado probability will shift north in the next 30 days.

Tornado numbers shown below are for the entire US. We are comparing this year to the last 13 years. The data, through May 22, shows we are on track to set some record low numbers. In the bar graph, you'll see that only one other year is lower than where we are now, and that was back in 2013.

(Click on the graphs to make them larger)

The black line represents the current year. In the first graph below, you'll see where we currently rank with respect to "normals". Just so you know, about 1200 tornadoes annually for the entire US is what is considered normal. 

This shows how this year compares to normal

How 2018 compares to other years (since 2005)

So what is behind the lower number of tornadoes? Well, April was so darn cool that storm season just couldn't get going. Colder air near the ground works against thunderstorm chances. The other factor, drought. Without much available moisture in the ground, there's a strong tendency to not get as many storms. And finally, the upper level winds haven't been as strong this May. The lower wind speeds translates to fewer rotating storms, and thus, fewer tornadoes.