Heavy rains - some severe potential

The waves of rain just keep on coming for Kansas and it's far from over. I know a few emails came in yesterday from some viewers who were disappointed that they hadn't had any rain at all, but the chances continue this week. Let's briefly look at the setup today:

Severe Chance for Tuesday afternoon:

The focus will mainly be from Wichita east, and the biggest threat looks to be large hail (maybe up to golf ball size). Storms will once again move northeast after they develop, and unlike recent severe storms, these will likely happen EARLIER in the afternoon. I think we could have some strong to severe storms by mid-afternoon in south central Kansas. So I'm suggesting the timing (for south central Kansas) looks to be from 3-7 pm. After that, the severe threat will be shifting east from our area.

Another round - Wednesday night:

I'm not concerned about severe weather for this time frame. This will likely be a batch of rain and some thunder that moves almost due east. It should bring some welcomes rains to western Kansas where recent storms have been spotty. This time frame could have another .50"-1.00" for some spots.

We will then catch a break from any widespread storms from Thursday afternoon - much of the weekend.

But next week, the weather pattern may be loading up for more active stretches for the Plains. It's VERY difficult to highlight any particular day next week that will have the best storm chances, but it's certainly not going to be sunny and dry for the entire week. I'll keep you updated both on here and on air as we continue to move through this active period for the plains.

Have a great day.

Rainfall reports - Two more waves of rain/storms

Good Monday morning and thanks for spending a few minutes here. A quick rundown of rainfall reports from Sunday - Monday AM:

Geneseo: 1.50"
Newton: 1.33"
Russell: 1.18"
Hutchinson: 1.15"
White City: 1.01"
Salina: 0.97"
Hays: 0.84"
Clay Center: 0.64"
Concordia: 0.48"
KWCH Studio: 0.44"
Jabara Airport: 0.38"
Great Bend: 0.17"
Goodland: 0.05"
Hill City: 0.03"
Garden City: 0.02"
Wichita (Eisenhower): Trace

Next Round - Monday night/Tuesday AM
This round of rain & thunder most likely won't be severe in Kansas. Some gusty winds to 50 mph and small, dime size hail will be possible, but most of the stronger storms should remain south in Oklahoma. However, there's still a good chance for some rain & some might be heavy, especially over the Flint Hills and east.

3rd Wave - Wednesday night/Thursday AM
It's not very clear how intense the storms will be around Kansas for Wednesday night. I'm thinking a good deal of the severe storms will stay southeast of our area, but northern Oklahoma and certainly SE Kansas will be in the running for some stronger storms. Large hail (up to golf ball size) and some 60 mph winds look possible later into the evening. But even the timing is somewhat in question. Most of the computer models hold off developing storms until closer to dark.

We do know there will be more periods of heavy rains. So please be careful around any flood water that you might encounter, especially for areas farther east.

Temperatures are going to remain cooler than normal for awhile longer. There's no sign we are jumping right into summer anytime soon.

Active weather begins - get ready

We are wrapping things up in April and heading into May, things are looking quite active and very wet throughout the Plains. Farmers have been busy planting corn and trying to get caught up after such a wet finish to winter.

Highlighting best chances for rain:

Sunday night-early Monday: A cold front advancing through the area will develop storms first in northwest Kansas Sunday evening, close to sunset. A few of these storms might produce some strong winds and hail up to the size of quarters. We will also likely have some areas of heavy rainfall, which might dump an inch of rain in spots.

Tuesday:

Good chances for rain in Kansas, but the possibility of severe is almost non-existent (at least in Kansas). There WILL be a threat of severe storms in Oklahoma and Texas, but it's not looking like those big storms will travel up into Kansas. We will also have some VERY cool temperatures and I think we should be ready for highs in the 40s and 50s. And it could snow in Colorado and western Nebraska too. As crazy as it sounds, snow on April 30th isn't that unheard of farther west.

Wednesday night-Thursday:

More wet weather is likely during this time frame for much of the Plains. Once again, the severe threat is low and hail/high winds seem unlikely given the setup now. We will get more steady rains and maybe some thunder, but soaking moisture looks to be the main feature.

How much rain?

When we look at the period Sunday - Thursday, rainfall amounts of 1-2" seem likely for much of Kansas. I'm certain there will be more the farther east that you go, but predicting exact amounts is almost impossible this far out. And this might be too much rain for some areas in northeast Kansas where flooding was such a big issue just a few months back.

Have a terrific weekend.

Active pattern about to begin

We are in the final stretch of April and about to enter the peak of tornado season soon. Some of the most active days tend to happen in early May. There's another spike of active weather that seems to come in late May too. As it turns out, our weather is about to turn active very soon with several chances for storms on the horizon.

Friday night - This will be first chance for some rain/thunder to move through. It will be scattered at best AND the severe threat is very low. But overnight and into early Saturday, some rain will move from west to east across the state. The number of rain/storms will be pretty sparse.

Sunday night/early Monday - This looks like one of the BEST chances for storms in our area. We will have very rich, Gulf moisture in place and a cold front will be running into it during the night. Much of the area should expect to see some rain during this time frame. The severe threat isn't overly high, but we could see some small hail and wind gusts maybe to 50 or 60 mph. Pockets of heavy rain will also be found in central and southern Kansas into early Monday.

Tuesday - There could be a significant severe weather setup on Tuesday for areas just south of us. Oklahoma could be in the target area for severe storms with hail, high winds, and maybe some tornadoes. We will have to watch the setup for this day. If the front ends up farther north, Kansas could be part of the severe weather. If it stays in Oklahoma, then Kansas will have a cool, cloudy day with some off and on rain.

Potential for more storms next Wednesday - Another front may slide through the area Wednesday night, which will bring some rain chances. It's doubtful that storms during this period would be severe, but something for us to watch as new data comes in.

Over the next week, several areas will get some soaking moisture. Forecasting exact amounts of rain isn't something we can do, but there are strong signals pointing toward widespread 1-2" rains for most of our area.

Tornado stats (so far) in 2019 - what's next

The intention of today's posting isn't to jinx the relatively quiet severe weather season in Kansas so far, but merely to update you on where we stand with the tornado count across the United States. And there's an alarming trend about the tornado fatalities, which show up farther down.

In Kansas, tornado season ramps up in early April and continues through at least mid June. We know tornadoes can happen anytime of the year, but on average, those tend to be the most active months. In fact, last year nearly 76% of all tornadoes happened in the month of May alone. Climatology suggests that severe weather is VERY common in Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas for today's date. However, where the severe weather will ACTUALLY be for Tuesday AND Wednesday is deep in Texas (with zero threat in Kansas)

Through April 21st, the tornado count for the United States is running a tad bit below average, with a preliminary report of 354 tornadoes. The average would be almost 400. Kansas has had a couple of reported tornadoes from last weeks severe weather event on Wednesday, but they were brief landspouts that only last seconds.

What's alarming here are the number of tornado fatalities that have been reported this year. We've had a couple of busy days in the south with large tornadoes and the loss of life spiked in March. We are already ahead of the 3 year average of fatalities, which is 21. Kansas hasn't had anybody killed in a tornado since 2012 (which happened in Wabaunsee county)

Does a slow start mean anything?
We can't make any long range assumptions based on the slow start to storm season so far in Kansas. If you look back at 2008, which holds the record for most tornadoes in a single season, that year only had 5 tornadoes through the end of April. So we can't assume the rest of the season will be as quiet.

What's next into early May?
It's looking like the weather will turn active into May with much better chances for rain and thunderstorms. We don't know how much severe weather the Plains will have, but I'm expecting the area will have more rain and active weather than we've seen in April. This map below shows potential rainfall for the area from April 30-May 5.

One thing that might keep the amount of severe weather down are the cooler than normal temperatures show on this map for May 7-12. And there could be SEVERAL cool stretches through May that might help keep some of the severe weather out of this area. We shall see soon enough.

Have a great day.

Next up, Easter storms

A quick check of some rainfall amounts from the storms Wednesday evening showed highest amounts just south of Wichita and into southeast Kansas.

Winfield: 1.57"
3 miles east of Andover: 1.50"
47th St South - Wichita: 1.42"
Wichita (official Eisenhower amount): 0.93"
Medicine Lodge: 0.76"
KWCH Studio (37th St. North & Hillside): 0.63"
Jabara Airport: 0.62"
Newton: 0.48"
Hutchinson: 0.06"

Easter Weekend:

Easter weekend looks really nice for most of the weekend. We will have another cold front entering the state on Easter Sunday. Most of the day looks dry with clouds rolling in throughout the day. However, right at the end of the weekend, we are looking for some rain (and thunder too) that should develop over Kansas. Our forecast models are suggesting chances will increase around dark, with the best chances happening in central and eastern Kansas. It's unlikely these storms will be severe - so large hail and strong winds probably NOT going to happen with this next round.

Another storm chance early next week:

The same front that enters Kansas on Easter will still be around on Monday. So we will likely see some more rain in the area to start next week. Although there may be a few strong storms nearby, large hail and wind aren't huge threats at this time.

Have a great Easter weekend!!

Severe threat today

Thanks for spending a few minutes checking in on the severe threat expected in southern Kansas this afternoon (Wednesday). It will probably be our busiest day with respect to severe weather that we've had this season. But we have had a few days already this spring with some watches and warnings.

The cold front (as of 8 a.m.) is already through western Kansas. Those areas will be safe from severe storms today (cooler and drier air taking over).

I'm expecting the cold front to stretch from Manhattan to Newton on back to Medicine Lodge around noon today. At least in south central Kansas, the front is expected to slow down and nearly stall for several hours. That's where storms should start in Kansas (which should happen between 5 and 7 pm)

Initially, storms are going to be capable of large hail (maybe up to golf ball size in spots). But as more and more storms flare up and the line of storms begins to fill in, we should be switching to heavy rains and maybe some wind gusts to 60 mph.

The tornado threat isn't zero today, but within a few hours of storms developing, the risk of tornadoes should drop considerably. 

Rainfall Amounts:

Still looks as if many areas of south central and eastern Kansas could be on track to pick up about an inch of rain (or more in a few spots). The heaviest rain will exit the area around (or shortly after) midnight, but showers will linger until almost daybreak Thursday.

Severe chance midweek

Hope your week is off to a good start. It's definitely warming a fair amount from where we were this weekend. It was heartbreaking to see so much destruction from the weekend storms in the south this weekend. There were over 40 tornado reports Saturday alone, but the actual count of confirmed tornadoes is closer to 30. It was a rough weekend to say the least.

The severe setup is back Wednesday. Just look at the humidity moving north today and even tomorrow (Wednesday). If you are anywhere east of a Dodge City to Russell line, the next few days will feel more humid for sure. The increase in Gulf of Mexico moisture will give the storms the chance to produce heavier rains with some places potentially getting an inch or more of rain.

Tornado threat:

It's not likely we will have tornadoes Wednesday evening in Kansas, but the threat isn't zero either. The humidity will be going up in the coming days, but it's still not quite high enough (at least in Kansas) for us to raise the tornado threat from the "low" threat category. There are some other important factors in the upper atmosphere that will keep the tornado threat down for our area too.

Hail/Wind/Flood threat:

It certainly appears that some hail larger than 1" and wind gusts over 60 mph will be the biggest threats. Storms could dump some pretty heavy rainfall in a short amount time, but widespread flooding shouldn't be a huge problem.

Timing: I would expect a few storms to begin after 4/5 pm Wednesday, and then start moving northeast later into the evening.

Rain for Easter Sunday?

It's a very small chance late in the day, but we are expecting another cold front to arrive at the end of the weekend. That should bring a few showers back Sunday evening, especially in western Kansas. The severe chance looks very low at this time. 

Weekend storm update & look at this pattern shift

Kansas weather has given us so much to talk about with the wind, the snow, 50° temperature changes, and concerns for frost. Hopefully you weren't caught off guard as we warned you late last week this sort of thing might happen. I'm giving you another heads up here... the cool weather isn't finished with us yet. I'll show you what I'm talking about in a second.

First, let's understand what will happen with this weekend storm first. The center of the storm is WAY south, so 97% of the rain will go through Texas and Oklahoma. That's probably not such a bad thing because farmers are finally back to work and trying to get caught up. Kansas ends up on the northern fringe of the weekend system, so some areas will get some rain. 

Forecast models are hinting at a couple of flurries in far western Kansas Saturday morning, but the main focus shifts to south central and southeast Kansas. We will start to see some showers developing after 4 or 5 pm. It won't be very heavy, but areas along and southeast of the turnpike will have the highest chances. It COULD get just cold enough for some snow to mix with the rain, but there's not going to be snow accumulation (at least in Kansas) from this storm. Some .25-.50" of rain will be possible southeast of Wichita. 

Next week starts milder, but then here comes another big change. Low pressure and cold front will come through Wednesday and bring cooler weather back. Thunderstorms are possible for southern Kansas Tuesday night, but most of the rain will come Wednesday. We expect mostly showers. It's too early to say how much rain, but it's probably not going to be that heavy.

Temperatures from Wednesday into Easter weekend look COOL. In fact, most areas will be setup for highs in the 50s, to around 60, which will actually be nearly 10° below normal. There's going to be this huge dip in the jet stream (called a trough) that will be positioned over the Plains. It should hold strong through about Easter before sliding east. 

Longer range models show the temperatures warming a bit later in the month, but it may take awhile to get there.

Storm update - weekend rain/snow chances too

Another huge low pressure is about to slide through the area with wind, thunderstorms, a blizzard, AND for all of us, colder weather. As we make the transition back to chilly weather, a FEW strong storms are possible in northern Kansas later this evening (timing would probably be after 6 or 7 pm). The majority of the stronger storms will likely slide into southern Nebraska after dark. This is unlikely to be anything big in terms of severe storms. Our Future Track does have a couple of spotty showers/storms across northern Kansas:

The switch to snow happens around midnight for western Kansas. Once that happens, the winds are going to start howling!! Punishing wind gusts to around 60 mph look likely for most of western Kansas Thursday morning.

Snow chances shouldn't get any farther east than about Hays/Russell. Thursday afternoon may have a few sprinkles passing through central and northern Kansas, but again, doubtful it would be anything more than that.

Weekend snow/rain chances:

Southern Kansas misses the first storm that we are watching today/Thursday, but we won't be missed by the second system arriving over the weekend. This is a storm that will organize in Texas and begin moving northeast. It will dump heavy rain on areas south of us (some places will get a couple inches of rain), and as it encounters JUST enough cold air Saturday night, south central Kansas (including Wichita) will have a rain/snow mix. Of course, we don't expect it to last long now into mid April, but I can just see it now. We look out our window Saturday night and see snowflakes coming down. It will have many of us scratching our heads, but it won't be the latest snow Wichita has ever had. That record is actually later in the month.

I promise... next week will get back to spring.

Snowfall for Kansas

It's hard to imagine this sort of thing happening when most of us today (Tuesday) and tomorrow spend time outdoors enjoying some 80° weather. The storm coming into Kansas on Wednesday is about as strong as the bomb cyclone that hit last month with winds above 60 mph.

How much snow - strong storms possible too:

We will have to be on the lookout for some strong storms north of I-70 Wednesday evening. Some quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60+ aren't out of the question. Once they get going, they should move northeast and get up into Nebraska quickly. We know Nebraska doesn't need rain right now, but it's pretty likely they'll have some storms too Wednesday night.

Snow will begin falling by early Thursday. Wind gusts above 60 mph look possible in far northwest Kansas, so this will be a blizzard and the accumulation of snow will be significant. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this storm doesn't set some late snowfall records for Goodland. We will be checking on that today. I think FAR northwest Kansas, including Goodland, St Francis, and Atwood might get 7-10" of snow. That's unusual for mid April. The amounts will drop off quickly as you go south and east.

Concerns for a late week frost:

With temperatures turning so chilly, we will have to be watching the lows Friday AND Saturday mornings. Right now, my biggest concern is Saturday morning when the winds die down. There's a good chance we will have some 20s and low 30s (unless the clouds rush in to help out, which is possible) - The image shown below is what the models are suggesting, but actual low temperatures could be a bit colder for most areas.

Snow for southern Kansas this weekend??

Yep - we are now looking at a rain/snow mix for southern Kansas this weekend. I've seen these setups before where temperatures (mainly at night) dip just low enough to get some big, wet flakes and the snow covers up part of the grass. That's what I think may happen Saturday night or early Sunday. It's too early to figure out what we might get, but it would be gone in a hurry Sunday because April snows don't last long around here and this one would likely melt before noon Sunday. Crazy stuff for sure though.