Hope your week is off to a good start. It's definitely warming a fair amount from where we were this weekend. It was heartbreaking to see so much destruction from the weekend storms in the south this weekend. There were over 40 tornado reports Saturday alone, but the actual count of confirmed tornadoes is closer to 30. It was a rough weekend to say the least.
The severe setup is back Wednesday. Just look at the humidity moving north today and even tomorrow (Wednesday). If you are anywhere east of a Dodge City to Russell line, the next few days will feel more humid for sure. The increase in Gulf of Mexico moisture will give the storms the chance to produce heavier rains with some places potentially getting an inch or more of rain.
Tornado threat:
It's not likely we will have tornadoes Wednesday evening in Kansas, but the threat isn't zero either. The humidity will be going up in the coming days, but it's still not quite high enough (at least in Kansas) for us to raise the tornado threat from the "low" threat category. There are some other important factors in the upper atmosphere that will keep the tornado threat down for our area too.
Hail/Wind/Flood threat:
It certainly appears that some hail larger than 1" and wind gusts over 60 mph will be the biggest threats. Storms could dump some pretty heavy rainfall in a short amount time, but widespread flooding shouldn't be a huge problem.
Timing: I would expect a few storms to begin after 4/5 pm Wednesday, and then start moving northeast later into the evening.
It's a very small chance late in the day, but we are expecting another cold front to arrive at the end of the weekend. That should bring a few showers back Sunday evening, especially in western Kansas. The severe chance looks very low at this time.
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