Tornado stats (so far) in 2019 - what's next

The intention of today's posting isn't to jinx the relatively quiet severe weather season in Kansas so far, but merely to update you on where we stand with the tornado count across the United States. And there's an alarming trend about the tornado fatalities, which show up farther down.

In Kansas, tornado season ramps up in early April and continues through at least mid June. We know tornadoes can happen anytime of the year, but on average, those tend to be the most active months. In fact, last year nearly 76% of all tornadoes happened in the month of May alone. Climatology suggests that severe weather is VERY common in Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas for today's date. However, where the severe weather will ACTUALLY be for Tuesday AND Wednesday is deep in Texas (with zero threat in Kansas)

Through April 21st, the tornado count for the United States is running a tad bit below average, with a preliminary report of 354 tornadoes. The average would be almost 400. Kansas has had a couple of reported tornadoes from last weeks severe weather event on Wednesday, but they were brief landspouts that only last seconds.

What's alarming here are the number of tornado fatalities that have been reported this year. We've had a couple of busy days in the south with large tornadoes and the loss of life spiked in March. We are already ahead of the 3 year average of fatalities, which is 21. Kansas hasn't had anybody killed in a tornado since 2012 (which happened in Wabaunsee county)

Does a slow start mean anything?
We can't make any long range assumptions based on the slow start to storm season so far in Kansas. If you look back at 2008, which holds the record for most tornadoes in a single season, that year only had 5 tornadoes through the end of April. So we can't assume the rest of the season will be as quiet.

What's next into early May?
It's looking like the weather will turn active into May with much better chances for rain and thunderstorms. We don't know how much severe weather the Plains will have, but I'm expecting the area will have more rain and active weather than we've seen in April. This map below shows potential rainfall for the area from April 30-May 5.

One thing that might keep the amount of severe weather down are the cooler than normal temperatures show on this map for May 7-12. And there could be SEVERAL cool stretches through May that might help keep some of the severe weather out of this area. We shall see soon enough.

Have a great day.