December outlook

Our last month in 2019 and it looks to be off to a windy start for Kansas. Saturdays wind gusts were mostly above 45 and in some spots, they were above 60 (which starts to cause power outages and minor tree damage). One of the strongest gusts in Kansas came from Goodland with a top wind speed of 69 mph. That's even on the verge of hurricane force.

What's causing all of wind across the Plains? It's the HUGE low pressure reaching its max strength in Nebraska and the upper Midwest. Some of the systems lately have been referred to as "bomb" cyclones, which simply refer to how fast they strengthen in a 24 hour period of time.

December Temperatures:
December is looking like it will be a milder month (not necessarily all 60s) coming our way, but I don't see Arctic air coming our way anytime soon. It may not come back until the end of the year even. In our winter forecast released over a week ago, we pointed out that January and February should be quite COLD for most of our area, but left December out of that discussion because signs have been pointing to a slightly milder month ahead.

One feature, if you look up in the Gulf of Alaska, we are seeing an area of lower pressures. This should keep most, if not all of the bitter cold, Arctic air from plunging south. When that flips around to high pressure in that region, it WILL turn colder - which will likely happen at the end of December or first of January.

Precipitation in December - not looking very promising (or very heavy)

• I see the first half of the month (like in November) - very dry
• Chances for moisture (both some rain and snow) will return late in the month. Could this mean a white Christmas? We don't know yet, but because we are leaning toward so much warmth in December, it's hard to imagine snow for the holiday. But we can't rule it out this far out.

Round two and three coming to Kansas

Ready for the next wave of active weather? Rounds two and three will impact more areas of the state, but with each passing wave, our temperatures will be getting warmer. So ice and slick roads will become less of a concern as we continue through the rest of the week. 

This will NOT be the wettest Thanksgiving on record. That record dates back to 2015 with over 2 inches of moisture. It's unlikely that we'd be getting that much rain on the holiday itself. 

Timing: Models continue to show a variety of precipitation. It will start as either snow, or sleet/snow mix for central and western Kansas. The key to the forecast will be the south winds, helping to erode the subfreezing temperatures. 

What main roads could be slick early Thursday? 

• Hwy 54 west of Pratt
• I-135 up around McPherson and north
• I-70 may have slicks spots

I think once we get to 11am or noon, we are going to see many areas improving as the changeover to mainly rain continues to spread. 

By mid to late afternoon, road conditions will be even better. It's not going to be "warm"... but warm enough to ease the concerns of hitting icy patches.

Friday - 3rd and final wave of rain

This will be the last in a series of systems coming into the area. There's been some chatter about severe storms on Friday, but I don't think you need to waste time worry about that. The risk is VERY small and not likely to be in this area. 

Messy travel weather this week

We went through almost the entire month with nothing... no big storms... no heavy precipitation, and now it all comes together for Thanksgiving week. We don't want to turn away the moisture because we certainly need it. But these system will have large impacts on the central Plains.

Storm #1 (Tuesday):

This system will have itself all wrapped up and pushing to the northeast heading into the evening and overnight. It's going to continue to be a beast for Nebraska and the upper Midwest right into Wednesday. A total of 4-8 inches still on the way for northwest Kansas. The amounts will decrease quickly just south of I-70. Watch for road closures with this storm. It's going to be a mess in certain areas.
This is the view Tuesday morning from Fort Collins. That area around and just east of Denver will have totals close to 10"

This system has a ton of wind with it too. So you will want to be bracing for wind gusts of 40-55 mph in many spots heading into Tuesday evening. It's not going to be very pleasant, even for the areas that get zero snow. 

Storm #2 (Thanksgiving Day)

So this particular storm comes up from Baja, CA heading into the holiday itself. It will run into air that is so close to the freezing mark. Just look at the forecast temperatures early Thursday.

If it ends up colder, we may have several slicks areas Thursday morning to deal with, especially in central and northern Kansas. However, the key to the forecast will be the south winds, trying to warm things up during the day. I'm expecting most areas will come back above freezing by early or mid-afternoon, getting us back over to rain/wet roads; not icy. But sometimes the models are too aggressive in warming things up.

Storm #3 (Friday):

The last in a series of weather events comes Friday in the form of widespread rain AND some thunderstorms. Thunder in late November isn't that unheard of (given the right setups) and this storm coming in is fairly intense. Now I don't think we will be faced with severe storms, but conditions will be right for some noisy weather that afternoon.

Forecast rainfall amounts:

On the bright side, we get some good moisture out of these events (and it doesn't all come in 45 minutes). And when you are dry like we are, we can't be picky on when it comes. But melt down the snow from the northwest and add in what we get both Thursday AND Friday and many areas could be right up near an inch. Even if it ends up being just .50", it's going to be quite helpful. 

Winter Forecast 2019-20

Here you go... my thoughts on what could be coming up for our winter season. It feels like we've been in winter now for at least a month. We started getting snow back in the middle of October and people told me I needed to get the winter outlook posted then. But we try to hold off until just before Thanksgiving to allow for some time to study patterns and sort through the data.

Here's what I'm thinking on our upcoming winter season:

Unfortunately, for the drought areas in western Kansas, I don't see it getting better during the course of our winter. It may not get that much worse, but improvement during the winter is unlikely. Last year, we had close to 30 inches of snow in the northwest and just over 20 inches in the southwest. This year, I expect lower snow totals across the entire state. Wichita had about 10 inches from first flake to last, and this winter, it most likely won't be as much. I'm going with a 5-15" prediction for central and eastern Kansas. I also expect much of the area will have a cold winter ahead.

What are the driving factors:

Very warm water in the north Pacific and Gulf of Alaska is pretty significant this year. That build up of warm water will likely lead to a somewhat persistent high pressure. When this happens, there is a tendency to unleash some big chunks of COLD air down the eastern side of the Rockies. We've already watched this happen once in November. It may happen a time or two in December, but the longer periods of cold and Arctic air will likely show up quite a bit in January and February.  Winds around high pressure blow clockwise, and that wind direction coming off the snow pack in Canada will be something to watch (or run away from if you don't like the cold weather)

There is a second pattern that will show up this winter too:

This setup will be interesting and our only hope of getting some precipitation in here this winter. However, I'm a bit concerned that storms will not organize until they are south or east of us, taking MOST of the rains/snows east and southeast of Kansas. It will be a close call, but in studying the patterns, it sure looks like Kansas is NOT in the right spot to get the good moisture. Big precipitation will likely head south into Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas. So with that, I'm leaning on drier than normal weather throughout most of the winter and the reasoning behind my lower snow totals for Kansas.

Where's El Nino:

Water temperatures ARE warmer than normal in the area that is monitored for El Nino, but it's very weak and likely a weak part of what influences our weather this winter. Typically, El Nino winters have a tendency toward wetter than normal conditions, but I don't see that happening for Kansas over the next several months. You can look at the map above and see the area outlined in the box does show some "red", indicating the slightly warmer than normal water. But in the grand scheme of it all, it's weak.

Long range forecasts are tricky, but that's what I'm thinking for our winter season. If you like snow, it's not the best of news. If you had hoped for drought easing moisture, this forecast is probably disappointing too. We will see how it all goes this winter and if you have questions, please reach out.

Active weather begins - rain, thunder, and snow chances

Just a week out from Thanksgiving and our weather is turning from dry and boring ... same ol' same ol' to something that could be beneficial for more Kansans. Let's go through each event as it should play out. A reminder, the Winter Forecast is coming out Thursday night so you can gauge what Storm Team 12 is thinking as the official start to winter is about a month away.

Wednesday afternoon (today):
Chances for rain AND thunderstorms across the Plains today. Set your rainfall expectations at .25" and understand there will be areas that get more - with western Kansas probably getting less than .25". The issue is that the rain will not be around for very long, taking away chances of getting a nice, good soaking.

First rains will likely develop and move in around 2/3 p.m. and then cruise to the northeast. By 10 p.m.,  chances are going to diminish fairly quickly with the rest of the overnight period mainly rain free.

Second wave - Thursday night/Friday:

As the main low pressure tracks over Kansas (this is coming in from the Southwest part of the US) we will have another chance at some moisture. It won't be very much, but some light snow will move from southwest to northeast. Snow accumulations should be under an inch, and most of it will probably melt as it falls (with temps near 40°). I don't expect road conditions to be much of an issue throughout the day, so if you needed to get somewhere Friday morning or afternoon, you should be just fine.

Thanksgiving week:
There are so many images being shared on social media. Some of them are scary looking, especially when considering travel plans for next week. Should you change your plans or cancel? One of the things to consider and PLEASE keep in mind, we are discussing something here that isn't reality yet. Models are crunching math equations to try and help us figure out what or if, something is going to develop next week.

One model shows this:

Another model shows almost nothing for Thanksgiving week:

What is one supposed to do with this information? For right now, I wouldn't cancel or rearrange any plans. Models are all over the place and just not sure what will happen in our area. This system (if there is to be a storm) will develop RIGHT over Kansas and then move on quickly. As is usually the case, as we get closer to the start of next week, we will have a better handle on this potential setup. You could almost think of this like a puzzle in Wheel of Fortune. As more letters are revealed, you get a better idea of how to solve the puzzle. That's why we are not sounding the alarm on a major winter storm for next week just yet. Updates will be coming... as this is still 6 days away.

Two potential storms before Thanksgiving

Welcome to Monday and finally, a week where we have something other than clouds, wind, and changing temperatures to catch our attention. Our winter forecast is coming out Thursday night and I'll be sure to post it here for you to read some of the details on how we reached our conclusions.

We are about to go through at least 2, if not 3 weeks of active weather. The first storm to watch impacts our weather from Wednesday - Friday. It looks to arrive in pieces, which means this will NOT be a one-and-done type of setup. Some of the precipitation(mainly rain) will fall Wednesday night, and whatever comes after it will likely have some wintry precipitation mixed with it.

Here's where the storm will be Tuesday:

Majority of the rain and snow will be showing up west of the Rockies (big snows likely in the ski resorts and difficult travel possible in the mountains). This is incredible when you look at the stretch of moisture from Mexico to the Dakotas. Again, this is Tuesday when the storm is still in its developing stage.

Wednesday late afternoon-night:

There isn't much snow to be had with this approaching system, but rain should develop from southwest into central Kansas. I have to think the heaviest amounts will be east of a Hays to Pratt line, but even in those areas, I can't see it being much more than .20-.40" (if you were to get .50" you'd be really lucky)

Thursday looks like mainly clouds - not much, if any precipitation:
Rainfall amounts - not very heavy. Most of the state will likely end up with amounts under .50"

Friday - the last part of the system pushes through - which could be a few hours of some very light rain or snow flurries mixing across central and eastern Kansas. Impacts to travel OR snow shoveling is NOT likely at this time.

A storm for Thanksgiving week:

It's not completely out of the question. We are expected to be in an active pattern for a few weeks and a system may charge through here BEFORE we get to the Thanksgiving holiday. If the models are correct, this is a Tuesday/Tuesday night storm (getting east of Kansas before the big travel day on Wednesday). But I'll keep you update on what we are seeing as time gets closer.

Early look to Thanksgiving week

Planning some Thanksgiving travel this year? Here's an early look at Thanksgiving week. Exact details will be worked out as we get closer, but we are confident in one thing - it will be rather chilly in the Plains.

Look at this map showing average temperatures for Thanksgiving week. 

Unless you are heading to the southwest, you better pack some warm clothing because many areas across the central Plains, the upper Midwest and farther east will be seeing cooler than normal temperatures. It will NOT be the big Arctic blast we had last week, but it does look like temperatures will be about 5-8°

Temperatures on the big travel day - Wednesday

And a preview of temperatures on Thanksgiving Day suggest it will be rather chilly:

As for precipitation (we know that can sometimes be the deciding factor) - we will have to watch and see what develops.

Early signs point toward some potential active weather in the central or southern Plains. So if you are planning to travel, please check back with us next week when we should start to have a better feel for chances of moisture. Right now, I'm thinking if there IS active weather, it may be south of us, but it is too early to say for certain if we will have rain or snow around Kansas.

Are we finally on track for some more rain?

It's been a long haul lately with no decent amount of rain AND some major temperature swings. We have seen quite a flip from 70s to record lows and now, settling into a benign fall stretch of weather.

There's really nothing noteworthy in the first system coming through over the weekend. It's a dud. Limited moisture and a disorganized system means we won't get squat.

Computer models are hinting at something toward the end of next week (Nov. 21/22) 
I've been hesitant to say much about this because I don't want to scare the storm away. (we all know that can happen if we talk too much about it) There are several meteorological factors that suggest this won't be a big rain, but I think we'd settle for .25-.50" if we could get it. I'd like to see the storm dive a little deeper into the southwest before coming this way, but as its looking now, I think the moisture will be somewhat limited. HOWEVER... It might be one of our ONLY chances of moisture between now and the end of the month. So we better cross our fingers.

This is a preview of what our Future Track shows for next Thursday. The batch of moisture off to the east of Kansas might clip southern Kansas. The larger area of rain in the desert Southwest will be something to watch for next weekend. And it may never get into the Plains. But it's something to watch.

Meteor Shower:

The Leonids will peak Saturday night. I think we will have too many high clouds to really have good viewing of the show. The bright moonlight will wash away some of the smaller meteors, but if you are looking for something in the sky, check it out. I think the next REALLY good Leonid shower is set for 2030 when we are to be passing through a thicker batch of debris that will give us more than 15 per hour.

Our winter forecast is coming out Thursday night. I will also be sharing thoughts on Thanksgiving weather and travel at the beginning of next week. Right now, it doesn't look too dramatic for our area, but it will be cooling down.

From record cold to this....

This Kansas weather lately has been so wacky that if you aren't checking the weather on a daily basis, it really can catch you by surprise. A temperature change of 40-50 degrees in less than 24 hours is maybe too much for most of us.

Just look at the record lows from Tuesday morning (and there may be a few more added as official numbers trickle in):

Single digit lows in November don't happen that often... for Wichita, the last one was back in 2014.

This is how November has gone so far:

Much of the country is experiencing colder than normal temperatures to this date in November, but this map will look quite a bit different when we get through the rest of the month.

Heads up on winds & wind chills into Wednesday morning - 

We are advertising a warming trend, but Wednesday morning will start off with gusty south winds and that means it will feel quite cold at the beginning of the day. We are expecting many areas to drop into single digits and teens on wind chills between 4 and 7 a.m. Wednesday. Those winds can be quite helpful sometimes in bringing in milder air. However, at 7 o'clock in the morning, it will cut right through you this time of year.

Goodbye Arctic air! 

We are seeing the bitter cold push on to the east and while the East coast deals with it for the next few days, we will see our numbers coming back up. This will be the last of the Arctic air for weeks to come. It won't be back before Thanksgiving and we may not see much of it between now and Christmas.

Here are your average temperatures for next week - our 3rd full week of the month:

And a sneak peek into Thanksgiving week suggests no Arctic blasts either.

I am expecting our temperatures will be near normal with mostly lows in the 20s and highs a mix of 50s and some 60s. The second half of this month should be pretty manageable. We do need rain - but there's no sign of it in the next 12-14 days.

Just a heads up! Our winter forecast is just over a week away: